NBA Picks 3/7 – Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets

NBA Picks 3/7 – Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets

In what could be an NBA Finals preview the Boston Celtics (48-13) visit the defending NBA Champion Denver Nuggets (42-20) tonight at Ball Arena on TNT. Denver is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is 221. Tonight’s game is the second and final meeting between these teams, Denver slipped past Boston 102-100 on Jan. 19, it was the first home loss of the season for Boston. Jamal Murray scored 35 points and Nikola Jokic finished with 34 for Denver in the win. Denver has won two straight against Boston but had dropped the previous six head-to-head matchups.

Both teams are coming off surprising losses that ended long winning streaks. Denver lost 117-107 in overtime against the visiting Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night, they overcame a 22-point second half deficit to force overtime. The loss snapped a six-game winning streak for Denver. Boston dropped a stunning 105-104 decision at Cleveland on Tuesday night. They blew a 22-point fourth quarter lead, the loss ended an 11-game winning streak for Boston, which was the longest in the NBA this season.  

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

For the past two seasons, the Boston Celtics have established themselves as one of the elite teams in the NBA by finishing second in the Eastern Conference and making deep playoff runs. In 2021-22, Boston made it to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 where they lost to the Golden State Warriors in 6 games. They followed that up with a run to the Eastern Conference Finals where they lost a hard-fought 7-game series to the Miami Heat. Boston has picked up right where they’ve left off the last two seasons as they own the best record in the NBA at 48-13. The Celtics are on pace to have their most wins since the 2007-08 season when the finished 66-16 and won the NBA title. 

The terrific play of Boston’s All-Star duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum has been a big reason for the recent run of success. The 26-year-old, five-time All-Star Tatum is averaging 27.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1 steal on 47.6 percent shooting from the floor across 58 games. Last season, Tatum became the first player in Celtics history to average 30 or more points in a season when he averaged 30.1 ppg. The previous franchise high was Larry Bird’s 29.9 ppg set during the 1987-88 season. All-Star guard Jaylen Brown is averaging 22.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals and shooting 50 percent from the floor across 56 games. The 27-year-old Brown was named an All-Star for the second time in his career this season.

Big man Kristaps Porzingis (20.4 ppg, 6.9 rebs, 2.0 asts, 1.1 stls, 52.5% from 2), former All-Star/ lockdown defender Jrue Holiday (12.9 ppg, 5.6 rebs, 4.8 asts, 48.2% from 2, 44.5% from 3) and guard Derrick White (15.3 ppg, 4.9 asts, 4 rebs, 1.2 blks, 1 stl, 46.9% from 2, 40.5% from 3) round out the best starting five in the NBA. If Porzingis can maintain a 20 ppg average, Boston will pull off the rare feat of having three players average more than 20 points per game. Porzingis and Holiday were both acquired in trades during the offseason and they’ve have had a huge impact this season. Despite having a secondary role on the team, White is on pace to have career-high numbers in just about every category.

GAME STORYLINES: DENVER

Prior to last season, the Denver Nuggets franchise had never advanced to the NBA Finals. The 2022-23 Denver Nuggets exorcised the franchise’s demons in a major way as they went on a dominant postseason run that culminated with the first NBA title in franchise history. Denver went 16-4 overall in the 2023 playoffs and won 10 of their last 11 postseason games. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic was named Finals MVP after a historic performance that saw him put up 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.4 blocks while shooting 58.3 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from long distance as Denver beat a pesky Miami Heat team in 5 games. 

Superstar Nikola Jokic continues to dominate this season in year nine. The six-time All-Star is averaging 25.9 points, 12.3 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.2 steals while shooting 57.9 percent from the floor across 60 games. Jokic averaged a triple-double during the month of February and has recorded a double-double in 8 straight games. Jokic became the first player in NBA history to record a triple-double without missing a shot during a 130-110 win over Washington on Feb. 22. He scored 21 points while going 10-10 from the floor in that game. Jokic has 124 career regular-season triple-doubles which ranks him fourth in NBA history.

Shooting guard Jamal Murray is Nokic’s co-star for Denver, and a case could be made that they form the best 1-2 duo in the NBA. The availability of Murray last season played a big role in Denver winning the title. After a breakout performance during the 2020 playoffs at the Orlando bubble that saw Murray average 26.5 ppg in 19 games, he tore his ACL in April of the following 2020-21 season. The injury caused him to miss the 2021 and 2022 postseasons, as well as the entire 2021-22 season. Upon his postseason return, Murray averaged 26.1 points, 7.1 assists and 5.7 rebounds while shooting 47.3 percent from the floor across 20 playoff games last season. Murray averaged 32.5 ppg on 52 percent from the field in Denver’s four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference Finals.

Athletic forwards Michael Porter Jr. (16.6 ppg, 7.1 rebs, 48% from 2, 39.6% from 3) and Aaron Gordon (13.9 ppg, 6.5 rebs, 3.2 asts, 55.1% from 2), along with sharpshooting swingman Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (10.2 ppg, 39.6% from 3) round out a strong starting five for Denver. Like Jamal Murray, Porter Jr. also missed much of 2021 and 2022 seasons due to injuries, his return to full health last season also provided a tremendous boost. Caldwell-Pope has knocked down at least 3 three-pointers in three straight games. Veteran guard Reggie Jackson (10.2 ppg, 3.8 asts) has been an unsung part of the team by providing scoring off the bench and making spot starts for Murray and Caldwell-Pope, he’s played in all 62 games this year.

THE PICK: CELTICS (+1.5)

Boston is the most talented team in the NBA, I think they’ll be upset after choking away their last game to Cleveland, they’ll also be seeking revenge for the loss to Denver in January, Grab the Point(s) and take the Celtics!