NBA Picks 3/5 – Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

NBA Picks 3/5 – Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

The defending World Champion Denver Nuggets (42-19) host the Phoenix Suns (35-26) tonight at Ball Arena on TNT. Denver is a 9-point favorite and the total is 223.5. This is the second of three meetings between these teams, Denver won at Phoenix 119-111 on Dec. 1 led by Nikola Jokic’s 21 points, 16 assists and 2 blocks. Denver also knocked off Phoenix 4-2 in the Western Conference Semifinals last season enroute to winning the NBA title. All four of Denver’s wins in that series were by double digits, including a 25-point (125-100) shellacking in the decisive Game 6 win at Phoenix. 

Phoenix is coming off a 118-110 loss to the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday night, they’ve lost two in a row at home. Denver enters tonight’s game on a six-game winning streak after knocking off the Lakers 124-114 in Los Angeles on Saturday night. Nikola Jokic had a monster game of 35 points (16-25 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 10 rebounds, seven assists and one block over 39 minutes in the win. Five of Denver’s six wins have been by double digits during their current streak. 

GAME STORYLINES: PHOENIX

After making the 2021 NBA Finals, being up 2-0 on the Milwaukee Bucks and then having it all slip away after four straight losses, the Phoenix Suns appeared to be very close to winning the franchise’s first NBA title. The ensuing two seasons ended in disappointment with consecutive losses in the Western Conference Semifinals. Phoenix finished with a franchise record 64 wins in 2021-22 but were dealt a humiliating 33-point home loss to the Dallas Mavericks in Game 7 of the West semis. Last season, Phoenix acquired 13-time All-Star Kevin Durant at the February trade deadline but they were still unable to get past the second round as Denver ended their season.

In the offseason, Phoenix decided to make several big changes. They fired head coach Monty Williams in May and hired Frank Vogel, who coached the Los Angeles Lakers to the 2020 NBA title. In June, Phoenix acquired three-time All-Star Bradley Beal from the Washington Wizards via a three-team trade in an effort to form a Big Three of Beal, Booker and Durant. In September, they dealt center Deandre Ayton to the Portland Trailblazers as part of a three-team deal that brought back center Jusuf Nurkic and guard Grayson Allen. Ayton had become disgruntled during his final seasons with Phoenix and was rumored to have strife with teammates and coaches. 

Unfortunately for Phoenix, their Big Three has rarely played together that often due to injuries to Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. With the exception of a six-week period in late December to early February, the Suns Big Three has never been on the court together consistently. The 30-year-old Beal has already missed 29 games this year due to an assortment of injuries, he just returned from a hamstring injury that kept him out for 5 games. This is not a surprising development when you consider Beal has failed to play in more than 60 games in a season since 2018-19 with the Wizards. Booker injured his right ankle in the fourth quarter of a loss to Houston on Saturday night, he’s expected to be out for 7-10 days.

Amidst the injuries to Beal and Booker, Kevin Durant is having another excellent season at age 35, he’s averaging 27.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.3 blocks while shooting 52.8 percent from the floor and 42.1 percent from long distance across 54 games. He was named an All-Star for the 14th time this season. Trade acquisitions Grayson Allen (12.6 ppg, 3.9 rebs, 3.1 asts, 46.3% from 3), Jusuf Nurkic (11.8 ppg, 10.7 rebs, 3.8 asts, 1 stl, 1 blk, 51.4% from 2) and Royce O’Neal (10.2 ppg, 6.2 rebs, 3.2 asts, 1.7 stls in 9 games w/PHO) have played well in supporting roles with Phoenix. Nurkic grabbed a franchise-record 31 rebounds in Sunday’s loss to Oklahoma City. O’Neale was acquired from Brooklyn during the February trade deadline and could be leaned on heavily when Beal or Booker is out.

GAME STORYLINES: DENVER

Last season, the Denver Nuggets won the NBA Championship for the first time in their 47-year franchise history. Denver finished the regular season with a 53-29 mark and then dominated in the postseason by going 16-4 and winning 10 of their last 11 playoff games enroute to the title. Superstar Nikola Jokic was named Finals MVP after averaging 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.4 blocks while shooting 58.3 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from beyond the arc as Denver beat the scrappy Miami Heat in 5 games. The 29-year-old Jokic was the NBA’s MVP for the previous two seasons (2021 and 2022) prior to winning the title.

Nikola Jokic is putting together another MVP-caliber season again in year 9, he’s averaging 25.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.2 steals on 58.1 percent shooting from the floor across 59 games. Jokic averaged a triple-double in February with averages of 23.7 points, 13 rebounds, 10.4 assists, along with 1.5 steals and 1 block in 12 games. Jokic’s partner-in-crime on Denver is shooting guard Jamal Murray, he’s averaging 20.6 points, 6.4 assists and 3.9 rebounds while shooting 47.9 percent from the floor and 41.9 percent from beyond the arc. Murray was also excellent in the 2023 postseason putting up 26.1 points, 7.1 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 1.5 steals while shooting 47.3 percent from the floor. He averaged 32.5 ppg and shot 52.7 percent from the floor in Denver’s four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. 

After a breakout 2020 postseason that saw Jamal Murray average 26.5 ppg at the Orlando bubble as a young Denver team made it to the Conference Finals, Murray tore his ACL in April 2021 the following season. The injury caused him to miss the 2021 and 2022 playoffs, as well as the entire 2021-22 season. His return was a huge factor in Denver winning the NBA title last year. Not only is Murray an elite scorer, he’s also a clutch player late in games.

Forwards Michael Porter Jr. (16.6 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 48.1% from 2, 39.8% from 3) and Aaron Gordon (14 ppg, 6.6 rebs, 3.2 asts, 55.6% from 2), along with sharpshooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (10.1 ppg, 38.8% from 3) round out Denver’s terrific starting five. Like Murray, Porter Jr. was also plagued by injuries over the 2021 and 2022 seasons and his availability for the 2022-23 season was a big factor in Denver winning the title. The absence of Murray and Porter Jr. provided a huge scoring, shooting and defensive void that doomed Denver for two years. Now that both players have been relatively healthy over the past season and a half, Denver has been one of the elite teams in the NBA. They are in great position to finish as the top seed in the Western Conference in back-to-back seasons. 

THE PICK: Nuggets (-9) 

Denver has won 6 in a row and it looks like they’re rounding into championship form in the second half of the season and heading into the playoffs, while Phoenix has been bit by the injury bug, Lay the Points and take the Nuggets!