NBA Picks 4/4 – Spurs @ Nuggets

Western Conference powers and two of the NBA’s hottest teams face off as the surging San Antonio Spurs (59-18, 2nd in the West) visit the Denver Nuggets (49-28, 4th in the West) this afternoon at Ball Arena on Prime Video. This is the third of four regular season meetings between the Spurs and Nuggets. The first two matchups saw each team win on the road with San Antonio winning 139-136 at Denver on Nov. 28, and Denver picking up a 136-131 victory at San Antonio on March 12.

San Antonio has won 11 in a row, while Denver has won 7 straight games. The teams will meet for a final time on April 12 — the regular season finale — in San Antonio. The Spurs have won three in a row at Denver.

San Antonio is a 2-point favorite and the total is 242.5.

The red-hot and short-handed San Antonio Spurs pounded the Los Angeles Clippers 118-99 on the road on Thursday. The Spurs won the game without the services of superstar center Victor Wembanyama, who was out due to right ankle management.

San Antonio took control of the game late in the first quarter opening a 33-25 lead after the first frame. They outscored the Clippers by 16 (35-19) in the second quarter and led 68-44 at the half. The Clippers pulled to within 7 (89-82) early in the fourth quarter, but San Antonio responded with a 21-5 run which put them up by 23 (110-87) and ended any hopes for a Clippers comeback.

De’Aaron Fox scored a team-high 22 points (9-13 FG, 3-4 FT, 1-4 3Pt) and added 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals across 29 minutes for San Antonio in the win. Stephon Castle tallied 20 points (8-15 FG, 1-1 FT, 3-5 3Pt), 5 assists, and 4 rebounds over 33 minutes, while rookie Dylan Harper supplied 19 points (8-12 FG, 1-1 FT, 2-3 3Pt) and 5 assists in 25 minutes off the bench.

The Spurs have won 11 in a row and five straight road games by at least 14 points.

Denver defeated the Utah Jazz 130-117 on the road on Wednesday. The Nuggets jumped out to a 17-3 lead to open the game and never looked back. Denver led 68-54 at the half and never trailed against the tanking Jazz. The Nuggets have won a season-high seven in a row.

Denver All-Star guard Jamal Murray connected on 10 three-pointers en route to a game-high 37 points in the win. Murray knocked down 3 three-pointers on Denver’s first 3 possessions powering the Nuggets to a 12-0 lead to open the game. He hit 5 three-pointers in the first quarter. Murray also contributed 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks and a steal across 37 minutes.

Superstar big man Nikola Jokic notched his 32nd triple-double of the season, finishing with 15 points (5-10 FG, 5-7 FT), 17 rebounds and 12 assists in 33 minutes for Denver. Jokic has recorded a triple-double in five of his last six contests. Cameron Johnson added 19 points (7-13 FG, 2-2 FT, 3-7 3Pt), 9 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals, while Christian Braun finished with 18 points (7-11 FG, 3-3 FT, 1-3 3Pt), 6 rebounds and 4 assists for Denver.

After winning the 2023 NBA Draft lottery and selecting generational talent Victor Wembanyama with the No. 1 overall pick, the San Antonio Spurs were expected to become instant contenders. The 7-foot-5 phenom was supposed to elevate the franchise immediately in a similar fashion as the previous two generational centers that San Antionio drafted No. 1 overall in David Robinson (1987) and Tim Duncan (1997).

But the first two seasons (2023-2025) of Victor Wembenyama’s tenure only brought individual success for himself, not team success for the Spurs. Wembanyama won the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year and was selected as a 2025 All-Star in year two. San Antonio posted underwhelming records of 22-60 and 34-48, respectively, over the last two seasons. To make matters worse, Wembanyama was limited to just 46 games last season due to deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder, which raised questions about his durability.

Despite the disappointing 2024-25 season, San Antonio made two significant additions in Stephon Castle (draft) and star point guard De’Aaron Fox (trade) that ended up being critical to this season’s turnaround. In June 2024, the Spurs selected Castle fourth overall (UConn) in the NBA Draft. He went on to win the 2024-25 Rookie of the Year Award. In February 2025, the Spurs acquired Fox from Sacramento at the trade deadline. The talented Fox became disgruntled with the direction of Sacramento and requested a trade.

The continued brilliance of Victor Wembanyama (24.7 ppg, 11.5 rebs, 3.1 blks, 1 stl, 1.9 threes, 50.9% from 2 in 61 gms), along with the excellent production of De’Aaron Fox (18.5 ppg, 6.2 asts, 3.8 rebs, 1.2 stls, 1.8 threes, 49% from 2 in 67 gms) and Stephon Castle (16.7 ppg, 7.2 asts, 5.2 rebs, 1.2 stls, 1.2 threes, 47.2% from 2 in 65 gms) has led to a breakout season for the Spurs.

San Antonio enters tonight’s game with the second-best record in the NBA at 59-18, which is currently a 25-game improvement over last season. They’ve also won 11 in a row and are an astonishing 27-2 since Feb. 1. San Antonio’s 59 wins is their most since the 2016-17 season when they finished 61-21. The 2017 season is also the last time the Spurs made the playoffs.

In addition to the pristine play of San Antonio’s new Big Three of Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle, they boast a deep and talented supporting cast that has been terrific alongside and in place of the superstar trio. The foursome of Devin Vassell (14 ppg, 4 rebs, 2.5 threes), Keldon Johnson (13 ppg, 5.3 rebs, 52.8% from 2), rookie Dylan Harper (11.7 ppg, 3.9 asts, 50.3% from 2) and Julian Champagnie (11.2 ppg, 5.8 rebs, 2.4 threes) are the standouts amongst San Antonio’s complimentary pieces.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic went from being the 41st overall pick in the 2014 NBA draft to one of the greatest centers in NBA history over the course of his 11 NBA seasons. Three years ago (2022-23), Jokic led Denver to the franchise’s first NBA title as they romped through the playoffs finishing with a 15-4 record in the postseason. The Nuggets also won 10 of their final 11 postseason games.

Since winning the NBA title with relative ease in 2023, Denver has been unable to advance past the second round over the last 2 seasons. The 2024 and 2025 campaigns ended with Game 7 losses in the second round — second-seeded Denver lost to third-seeded Minnesota at home in 2024, and they lost at top-seeded and eventual NBA champion Oklahoma City last year.

Over the last calender year, Denver has made several eye-opening moves to regain their championship level. The first was firing head coach Mike Malone a little under a year ago on April 8, 2025. The move was stunning when you consider Malone coached the team to an NBA title less than 2 years earlier. Denver also traded talented forward Michael Porter Jr. to Brooklyn and brought in defensive-minded players like Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas and Bruce Brown to shore up defensive issues that doomed them in the two postseasons.

Denver gets an incomplete grade on the changes they made over the last year as the team has been besieged by injuries this season. Aaron Gordon (44 gms), Christian Braun (36 gms), newly acquired Cameron Johnson (26 gms), Peyton Watson (23 gms) and Nikola Jokic (16 gms) have all been sidelined for extended periods of time. The Nuggets have had their entire team intact over the last few weeks which has resulted in their current 7-game winning streak and a 10-2 stretch since March 11.

Despite the injuries for the team and roster changes, three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic continues to put up stellar numbers in year 11. The 31-year-old, 8-time All-Star is averaging 27.7 points, 13 rebounds, 10.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.8 threes per game while shooting 57.2 percent from the floor and 38.7 percent from long distance across 61 games. The Joker will average a triple-double for a second straight season this year. He’ll join Russell Westbrook as the only players in NBA history to average a triple-double in back-to-back seasons.

In addition to Nikola Jokic’ heroics, prolific shooting guard Jamal Murray has also registered a magnificent season. The 29-year-old, Kentucky product is averaging career-highs of 25.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 3.3 threes per game, while shooting career-highs of 48.4 percent from the floor and 43.4 percent from long distance in 72 games.

Jamal Murray will average over 20 ppg for a fifth straight season. He was named an All-Star for the first time this season after many felt he was snubbed several times in recent years. If Murray and Nikola Jokic can remain healthy heading into the playoffs, Denver can be a dangerous team that is capable of beating anyone in the postseason.

Both teams enter this afternoon’s game on long winning streaks — San Antonio at 11 and Denver at 7 — but I’ve got to ride the hotter hand here and go with the Spurs. San Antonio has only lost twice over the last 2 months! And with Victor Wembanyama back after taking Thursday’s game off, I expect another herculean effort from him today. Lay the Points and take the Spurs!