by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com
The divisional round of the NFL playoffs continue this afternoon with the fifth-seeded Houston Texans (12-5, 2nd in AFC South) visiting the AFC East Champion and second-seeded New England Patriots (14-3 in the regular season) at Gillette Stadium. The game kicks off at 3:00 p.m. (EST) on ESPN.
Houston and New England are facing each other for the first time since Week Six of last season on Oct. 13, 2024. Houston picked up a convincing 41-21 win at New England. The game had added significance for New England as it marked the first NFL start for rookie quarterback Drake Maye — the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Maye has gone on to become one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks since making his first NFL start.
New England is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 40.5.
HOW BOTH TEAMS ADVANCED TO THE DIVISIONAL ROUND
Houston pounded the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 on the road last Monday night (Jan. 12) in the Wild Card round which earned them a trip to play New England on Sunday. The 24-point margin is a bit misleading as the game was a hard-hitting defensive struggle through three quarters. Houston held a narrow 7-6 lead heading into the fourth quarter.
Houston broke the game open in the fourth quarter thanks in large part to two defensive touchdowns from its stellar defense. A Sheldon Rankins 33-yard fumble return touchdown gave the Texans a 17-6 lead with 11:23 remaining in the game. Safety Calen Bullock’s 50-yard Pick-Six with 2:39 left capped the scoring and was the icing on the cake of a resounding Houston victory. It was the first road playoff win in Houston’s 24-year (2002) franchise history.
The Texans defense sacked Aaron Rodgers four times and intercepted him once. They also held Pittsburgh to 175 total yards in the game. It was Pittsburgh’s first home loss on Monday Night Football since a 23-20 setback against the New York Giants in 1991. They had won 23 straight Monday Night contests prior to losing to Houston.
Rookie running back Woody Marks ran for a career-high 112 yards on 19 carries and scored a touchdown in the victory. The fourth-round, USC product saved his best performance for the postseason as he had not topped the 100-yard mark in 15 regular season games. Wide receiver Christian Kirk also recorded a big game hauling in 8 catches for a season-high 144 yards and a touchdown. Kirk totaled just 239 receiving yards in 13 regular season games.
Houston will enter Sunday’s game at New England on an NFL-best 10-game winning streak. They started the season 0-3.
Like Houston, New England was also boosted by a herculean effort from its defense in their 16-3 win against the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday night. The Patriots defense sacked Justin Herbert six times and held the Chargers to 207 yards of total offense. It was the first Patriots playoff victory since winning Super Bowl LIII (53) during the 2018 season.
Second-year superstar quarterback Drake Maye was solid in his postseason debut after some struggles in the first half. Maye completed 17 of 29 passes for 268 yards with a touchdown and an interception for the Patriots. He also rushed for a season-best 66 yards on 10 carries. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson registered an efficient all-around game rushing for 53 yards on 10 carries and totaling 3 receptions for a team-high 75 yards.
GAME STORYLINES: HOUSTON
During the 2022 season, the Houston Texans ruined their chances at securing the #1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft when they won 2 of their last 3 games to finish 3-13-1. Chicago finished 3-14 and obtained the #1 overall pick — which they eventually traded to the Carolina Panthers. It appeared as if the Texans were settling for the consolation prize by selecting Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud at No. 2 instead of Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the first overall pick.
But CJ Stroud ended up having a sensational rookie season — he passed for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to 5 interceptions on 63.9 percent completions in 15 games — while Bryce Young struggled with Carolina as a rookie. Stroud also led Houston to a 10-7 record and an AFC South division crown, which was a 7-game improvement over the 2022 season. Stroud was named the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
CJ Stroud has failed to eclipse his excellent rookie year numbers due to Injuries and a few stints of inconsistency but Houston has remained a perennial playoff team for 3 straight seasons now due to the emergence of a stellar defense. Houston traded up 9 spots in the 2023 draft — the same draft where they selected Bryce Young — to nab Alabama defensive end Will Anderson Jr. with the third overall pick.
The selection of Will Anderson Jr. in the 2023 NFL draft played a huge role in Houston becoming a dominant defense. The Texans defense has gone from finishing 14th in 2023 to 5th last year in 2024 to ending up as the #1 defense this season. You could make a convincing argument that the emergence of Houston’s hellacious defense is the main reason for their success over the last 2 seasons.
The aforementioned superstar Will Anderson Jr. (54 tackles, 12 sacks, 20 tackles for loss, 3 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 defensive touchdown in 17 gms), defensive end Danielle Hunter (54 tackles, team-high 15 sacks, 15 tackles for loss, 3 forced fumbles in 17 gms) and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (36 tackles, 4 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 defensive touchdown in 17 gms) anchor Houston’s top-rated defense. All 3 players were selected as All-Pro’s this season.
Despite suffering a mid-season concussion in a Week 9 loss at Denver on Nov. 2, CJ Stroud (3,041 passing yards, 19 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in 14 gms) rebounded to produce a very good season. Houston was 3-5 when Stroud went down with the concussion, he was sidelined for 3 weeks. The Texans went 3-0 with backup quarterback Davis Mills at the helm. Stroud’s return did not disrupt Houston’s momentum as he guided the team to 6 straight wins to end the regular season prior to last week’s Wild Card win at Pittsburgh.
Houston was dealt a tough blow when it was announced on Friday that star wideout Nico Collins (1,117 yards, 6 touchdowns in 15 gms) will miss Sunday’s playoff game due to a concussion. Collins suffered the concussion in the third quarter of Monday’s Wild Card win at Pittsburgh.
GAME STORYLINES: NEW ENGLAND
From 2001-2019 (19 seasons), the remarkable duo of quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick combined to form perhaps the greatest dynasty in the history of North American sports. They won 6 Super Bowls, advanced to 9 AFC Championship games and made 17 playoff appearances over those 19 seasons. The Patriots’ reign ended when they allowed the 42-year-old Brady to walk as a free agent following the 2019 season. A few seasons later, they did not renew Belichick’s contract at the conclusion of the 2023 season.
The departure of Tom Brady in 2019 and Bill Belichick in 2023 led to a precipitous drop for New England. Since going 12-4 in Brady’s final season in 2019, New England only notched one winning season over the next 5 years — a 10-7 finish in 2021. They bottomed out with back-to-back 4-13 finishes in 2023 and 2024, its worst two-year stretch since the 1989 and 1990 seasons where they went 5-11 and 1-16, respectively. New England’s failure to find a suitable replacement at quarterback was the biggest reason for their five years of futility.
New England’s fortunes changed dramatically when they selected Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. After initially losing out to Jacoby Brissett for the starting job in training camp as a rookie, Drake Maye took over for an ineffective Brissett in Week 6 — against the Houston Texans — and the rest has been history as Maye posted a decent rookie season and then catapulted himself to an MVP-level this year.
Drake Maye’s tremendous improvement from his rookie campaign was the catalyst to New England’s stunning turnaround this season. Maye ended the regular season passing for 4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns to 8 interceptions on 72 percent completions in 17 games. Maye also rushed for 450 yards and 4 touchdowns. Maye’s spectacular sophomore leap this season has him in the MVP discussion with Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matt Stafford.
The foursome of star wideout Stefon Diggs (1,013 yards, 4 touchdowns in 17 gms), tight end Hunter Henry (768 yards, 7 touchdowns in 17 gms) along with the running back duo of TreVeyon Henderson (911 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns in 17 gms) and Rhamondre Stevenson (603 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, 345 receiving yards 2 receiving yards in 14 gms) all registered fantastic seasons alongside Drake Maye in New England’s high-powered offense.
New England went from a dismal 4-13 record in 2024 to 14-3 in 2025 behind the heroics of Drake Maye and a strong offense. Their 10-game improvement matched the 1999 Indianapolis Colts and 2008 Miami Dolphins as the biggest turnarounds in NFL history. The Patriots also won the AFC East division for the first time since 2019, ending Buffalo’s five-year reign as division champs.
THE PICK: TEXANS (+3.5)
Despite the loss of star wideout Nico Collins due to a concussion, the Texans are on a 10-game winning streak and they possess what looks to be an all-time great defense. I believe the Texans are embarking on a 2000 Baltimore Ravens/2002 Tampa Buccaneers type of run where their defense will carry them to a Super Bowl title. Take the Points…Texans 20, Patriots 14