NFL picks 1/4: New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

New Orleans and Atlanta close the 2025 regular season in a genuine NFC South shootout with playoff tiebreak implications — Falcons favored-3.5 and the market sitting on a 43.5 total .

Team Analysis

New Orleans

• Season overview and recent form: The Saints enter at 6-10 riding a surprising four-game winning streak with rookie QB Tyler Shough leading an offense that has shown life late in the year .
• Key context: New Orleans has been hit by a string of injuries that hollow out the receiving corps and depth at running back; the team has scrambled to elevate practice-squad depth and tweak game plans. Local coverage and team sources detailed multiple players out or limited in Week 18 prep .

Atlanta

• Season overview and recent form: The Falcons are 7-9 but finish hot with a three-game win streak; Atlanta has balanced late-season surge with inconsistent stretches all year. The club is favored at home and has momentum after a dramatic Week 17 win .
• Key context: Atlanta leans on Bijan Robinson, who exploded for massive Week 17 totals and sits atop the league in scrimmage yards, giving them a reliable offense-tilt even if the passing game is banged up .

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: This is a rivalry that goes back decades; the Falcons lead the all-time series narrowly and won the most recent meeting (November 23, 2025), giving them a psychological edge in Atlanta .
• Important player matchups:

– Bijan Robinson vs. Saints front — Robinson’s late-season form (2,255 scrimmage yards entering Week 18) forces New Orleans to decide how to allocate boxes and personnel . – Tyler Shough and his receiving options — with Chris Olave out, Shough will target backups and tight ends more, which makes coverage matchups and defensive leverage for Atlanta more favorable .

• Key injuries and news: Saints star Chris Olave will miss the finale after a blood clot was detected in his lung; New Orleans also lists several starters out or on IR, while Atlanta has questionables but fewer catastrophic absences (https://www.nfl.com/news/saints-wr-chris-olave-to-miss-finale-after-blood-clot-was-detected-in-his-lung/; https://www.atlantafalcons.com/team/injury-report/).
• Home/away performance: Atlanta’s Mercedes‑Benz Stadium remains a tough environment late in the season; the Falcons’ recent wins have skewed home, and New Orleans’ injury-driven depth issues are amplified on the road .

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: DraftKings and the market center on Atlanta -3.5 (book lines show Falcons favored roughly -3 to -3.5 across outlets). Public money is split, but sharp indicators favor Atlanta by a hair given the injuries to New Orleans’ top targets (https://oddscrowd.com/games/new-orleans-saints-vs-atlanta-falcons-nfl-january-4-2026/5494845/game-preview; https://www.espn.com/nfl/game//gameId/401772966/saints-falcons).
• Total (over/under) analysis: Market total 43.5 (DraftKings) — with Olave out and New Orleans shorthanded, the Saints’ passing ceiling drops and Atlanta leans into Robinson’s ground game, which typically favors lower-scoring clock-control outcomes. However, Bijan’s explosiveness adds a touchdown upside that can lift the total quickly (https://www.espn.com/nfl/game//gameId/401772966/saints-falcons; https://www.nfl.com/news/2025-milestones-records-and-numbers-to-watch-in-week-18/).
• Best value opportunities:

– Take the Falcons -3.5 at standard vig if you prefer roster stability and a home-field edge; Atlanta’s rushing engine and healthier WR group (relative to New Orleans) create consistent scoring drives. – Consider the UNDER on 43.5 if you believe New Orleans’ depleted pass offense and Atlanta’s tendency to control tempo with Robinson forces a lower play count — the safer contrarian play is the under given the circumstances .

• Prediction: Expect a close, slogging divisional game controlled by the Falcons’ run game and situational defense. My lean: Atlanta -3.5 and the game finishes under the total. The final score projection: Falcons 20, Saints 13 — small edge to Atlanta covering at home. (Odds and situational context from market lines and injury reports).

Key Injury Statuses

• New Orleans

– Chris Olave — out for Week 18 after a blood clot in lung was detected; expected to recover but will not play in the finale . – Alvin Kamara — listed out for the finale (knee/ankle issues), further pressuring the Saints’ offensive balance . – Multiple OL/DL and depth pieces on IR or out; Saints elevated practice-squad options for Week 18 .

• Atlanta

– A handful of Falcons were limited in practice (Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Darnell Mooney flagged as questionable in reports), but Atlanta’s core offensive identity — especially Bijan Robinson — remains available (https://www.atlantafalcons.com/team/injury-report/; https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401772966/saints-falcons).

Final pick: Falcons -3.5 (small unit), and consider a one‑unit play on the UNDER 43.5 as a correlated cover hedge. Both plays align with Atlanta’s run-heavy finishing identity and New Orleans’ loss of key pass-catchers.

Closing: Wannamakeabet’s points-based system gives this game a modest edge to Atlanta by 3.8 points and flags the under as the highest value contrarian play given lineup gaps and projected pace. Bet responsibly and size down if market lines move against you late.