NFL Picks 1/4 – Cowboys @ Giants

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The 2025 regular season concludes with a matchup of long-time NFC East rivals as the Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1) visit the New York Giants (3-13) on Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium. Both teams are playing for pride and/or personal milestones as neither qualified for the postseason. Dallas escaped with a thrilling 40-37 overtime victory against New York at home when the teams first met back in Week 2 on Sep. 14. 

The Cowboys have dominated the Giants of late winning nine straight and 16 of the last 17 against their rivals from the Big Apple dating back to the 2017 season. New York’s last win against Dallas took place in Week 17 of the 2020 season on Jan. 21, 2021. 

Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has a 14-game winning streak against the New York Giants. The streak started after he lost to them twice as a rookie in 2016. It’s the second-longest winning streak by a quarterback against a single opponent behind Miami Dolphins quarterback Bob Griese, who won 17 straight games against Buffalo from 1968-79.

Dallas is a 3-point favorite and the total is 49.5.

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN THEIR PREVIOUS GAME

Dallas picked up a 30-23 win at Washington on Christmas Day (Dec. 25) in Week 17. The Cowboys set a dominant tone early against Washington by scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions and racing out to a 21-3 lead. Dak Prescott completed 19 of 37 passes for 307 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions against the crumbling Commanders. He also rushed for 24 yards on 4 carries in the win.

Backup running back Malik Davis rushed for a career-high 103 yards on 20 carries. The fourth-year ball carrier filled in for starter Javonte Williams who departed the game early with a shoulder injury. Speedy wideout KaVonte Turpin caught an 86-yard bomb from Dak Prescott in the second quarter that made the score 21-3. It was his only catch and target of the game. Tight end Jake Ferguson (1 catch for 6 yards) recorded Dallas’ other receiving touchdown in the game

New York clobbered the Las Vegas Raiders 34-10 on the road in Week 17. The Giants snapped a 9-game losing streak with the win. The result of the game had major 2026 NFL Draft implications as the Raiders (2-14) are now in an advantageous position to obtain the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Raiders placed stars Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby on injured-reserve prior to the Giants game. Some believe the moves were made to ensure a loss against the Giants.

Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart finished 22 of 30 for 207 yards, he did not record a passing touchdown or an interception. Dart rushed 9 times for 48 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson registered team-highs of 11 catches and 113 yards. New York won for the first time since a 34-17 win against Philadelphia at home in Week 6 on Oct. 9. 

WHY THE NOSEDIVE IN 2025: DALLAS COWBOYS

After being pegged as “America’s Team” by NFL Films in 1978 due to their two Super Bowl wins in the 1970’s and the popularity of their cheerleaders, the Dallas Cowboys garnered a large nationwide following for decades. Winning 3 Super Bowls (1992, 1993 and 1995) over a four-year span in the 1990’s increased their popularity. 

However, Dallas has failed to reach the Super Bowl for 30 straight seasons now. Their futility has become fodder for national sports shows and NFL fans worldwide. Dallas usually begins the season with high expectations but ends up falling terribly short year after year after year.

The 2025 season began on an ominous note before it even started for Dallas when a contract dispute with superstar linebacker Micah Parsons led to him being traded to the Green Bay Packers on Aug. 28. Parsons amassed a stellar four-year tenure with Dallas after being selected 12th overall out of Penn State in the 2021 NFL Draft. Parsons won the 2021 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award and was named an All-Pro in three of his four seasons with Dallas. 

The Dallas Cowboys and Micah Parsons got to renew acquaintances early in the year when Green Bay visited Dallas in Week 4 on September 28 as a part of NBC’s Sunday Night Football. Neither side got bragging right due the game ending in an unconventional 40-40 tie. Parsons registered 3 tackles and a sack against his former team. 

The blockbuster Micah Parsons trade delivered a mixed bag of results as Green Bay will win more games than Dallas and make the playoffs, but Micah Parsons suffered a season-ending torn ACL injury at Denver in Week 15 on Dec. 14. The loss of Parsons likely ended Green Bay’s Super Bowl aspirations. 

The acrimonious split with Micah Parsons foreshadowed the uneven season Dallas endured in 2025. The Cowboys defense — without Parsons — will finish the season as one of the worst in the NFL. They currently rank 30th (out of 32 teams) in defense. Washington and Cincinnati are the only 2 teams ranked below them. Dallas’ inconsistent efforts (home losses to non-playoff teams Minnesota and Arizona) and inability to beat playoff teams (Denver, L.A. Chargers, Chicago) also doomed them this season. 

Despite the disappointing season, Dallas received another tremendous season from quarterback Dak Prescott. After a hamstring injury limited Prescott to only 8 games in 2024, he’s bounced back to pass for 4,482 yards with 30 touchdowns to 10 interceptions on 67.4 percent completions through 16 games. The 32-year-old, 4-time Pro Bowler has thrown for 30+ touchdowns for the fourth time in 7 full seasons. 

The stellar wideout duo of George Pickens (career-highs of 1,420 receiving yards, 9 receiving touchdowns in 16 gms) and CeeDee Lamb (1,073 yards, 3 touchdowns in 13 gms), along with running back Javonte Williams (1,201, 11 rushing touchdowns, 2 receiving touchdowns in 16 gms) and tight end Jake Ferguson (595 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns in 16 gms) are all potent weapons for Dak Prescott in Dallas’ explosive offense. 

WHY THE NOSEDIVE IN 2025: NEW YORK GIANTS

While the New York Giants did not have the same expectations as Dallas for the 2025 season, they did not expect to enter the final week of the season with a 3-13 record. They’ll match last season’s dismal 3-14 mark with a loss on Sunday to Dallas. New York has never experienced back-to-back seasons with at least 13 losses in the history of their franchise. 

New York began the season without running back Saquon Barkley (2nd overall pick in 2018) or quarterback Daniel Jones (6th overall pick in 2019) on the team for the first time since the 2017 season. Both players were expected to be franchise cornerstones when the Giants selected them high in the draft, but they were jettisoned in each of the last 2 offseasons. Not surprisingly, Barkley and Jones went on to prosper after leaving the dysfunctional Giants.

The Giants opened the season with veteran quarterback Russell Wilson as its starter. The move quickly backfired as Wilson went 0-3, got booed at home and then benched. Star second-year wideout Malik Nabers then suffered a torn ACL in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers at home which ended his season. 

Rookie first-rounder Jaxson Dart (26th overall pick – Mississippi) replaced Russell Wilson as the starter. Bruising rookie fourth-round running back Cam Skattebo (105th pick – Arizona State) also made his debut a few games into the season in Week 3 after starter Tyrone Tracy Jr. suffered a dislocated right shoulder. 

The emergence of rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo provided unbridled optimism for the Giants beginning in Week 4 as the duo put on electrifying performances in upsets of the Los Angeles Chargers and defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles at home, and narrowly lost (33-32) at Denver. But the excitement came to an abrupt halt in Week 8 when Skattebo suffered a gruesome season-ending ankle injury at Philadelphia on Oct. 26. 

The talented rookie duo of Cam Skattebo (410 rushing yards, 207 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns in 8 gms) and Jaxson Dart developed a tremendous chemistry and bond with each other on and off the field. The loss of Skattebo likely led to the Giants’ tailspin as his ability to run over defenders and score touchdowns clearly elevated the team. 

The season-ending injuries to Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo, along with the somewhat disappointing season of highly-touted rookie linebacker Abdul Carter — who the Giants selected 2nd overall pick out of Penn State — seemingly left Jaxson Dart in a position where he may have felt pressure to carry the team and play hero ball. Carter was expected to be a generational talent after an exceptional 3-year career at Penn State but a lack of production on the field (43 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles in 16 gms) and attitude/ commitment issues off the field (Carter reportedly missed practices and team meetings) leave many questions about whether he’ll live up to expectations. 

Despite the losing and lack of weapons on offense, Jaxson Dart is registering a terrific rookie year passing for 2,042 yards with 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 63.2 percent completions through 13 games. He’s also rushed for 455 yards and a whopping 9 rushing touchdowns. If Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers can return to full health next season, the Giants could have a lethal quarterback-running back-wideout duo that could produce extraordinary results beginning next season.

THE PICK: COWBOYS (-3)

Dallas wants to end the 2025 campaign on a high note after an underachieving season. The reeling Giants are the perfect opponent for the Cowboys in this spot as they are depleted and looking to put themselves in position to get the 1st or 2nd pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The Cowboys have also won 9 in a row against the Giants. Lay the Points…Cowboys 37, Giants 23