NFL Picks 11/30 – Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The AFC West-leading Denver Broncos (9-2) visit the slumping Washington Commanders (3-8) at Northwest Stadium on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. The teams are meeting for the first time since 2023 when Washington picked up a 35-33 win in Denver. The last eight meetings between Denver and Washington have been split evenly at four dating back to the 1998 season. Neither team won more than once in a row over those eight meetings, which may indicate Denver is due to win Sunday’s matchup.

Denver is a 5.5-point favorite and the total is 43.5. The line experienced a significant shift as Washington was a 2.5-point favorite prior to the season, and are now 5.5-point underdogs. Prolonged injuries for Washington’s star second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels and Denver’s surprising 9-2 record are the causes for the 7-point swing in Denver’s favor. 

Both teams had bye’s in Week 12.

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN THEIR PREVIOUS GAMES

Denver is coming off an emotionally-charged 22-19 win against perennial powerhouse Kansas City Chiefs at home on Nov. 16. Will Lutz nailed a 35-yard field goal as time expired to win it for the Broncos. Winning on a last-second field goal had to be particularly gratifying for Lutz and Denver after being in a similar position a little over a year earlier (Nov. 10, 2024) at Kansas City where they came up just short. In last year’s game, Denver trailed Kansas City 16-14 in the waning seconds. Lutz lined up for a game-winning 35-yard field goal, but it was blocked by the Chiefs, which allowed Kansas City to escape with the win and improve to 9-0. 

Denver’s emerging second-year quarterback Bo Nix completed 34 of 47 passes for 295 yards in the victory over Kansas City. He did not record a touchdown or an interception. Wide receiver Troy Franklin led Denver with 84 yards on four catches, while fellow wideout Pat Bryant caught 5 passes for 82 yards. Running back Jaleel McLaughlin accounted for Denver’s only touchdown, he finished with 19 yards on 6 carries. Will Lutz went 5-for-5 on field goals, in addition to hitting the game-winner. 

The Broncos have won eight games in a row, its longest winning streak since 2012. Denver now holds a 3.5 game lead over Kansas City in the AFC West division and are in a good position to end the Chiefs’ 9-year reign as division champs. Kansas City has won the AFC West every year since 2016. 

Washington dropped a 16-13 overtime decision to the Miami Dolphins in Madrid, Spain on Nov. 16. It was the first-ever NFL game played in Spain. Miami won the game on a 29-yard Riley Peterson field goal at the 7:33 mark of overtime. Miami cornerback Jack Jones picked off Washington quarterback Marcus Mariota on the first play of overtime, which set up Miami on Washington’s 35-yard line. 

Despite the late-game interception, Washington quarterback Marcus Mariota produced a solid game, completing 20 of 30 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He added 49 yards on 4 carries. Deebo Samuel notched team-highs of 7 catches for 74 yards, along with a touchdown. Running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. rushed for a team-high 79 yards on 15 carries. Washington has lost six in a row. 

Washington could get a big boost with the return of star wideout Terry McLaurin. The 30-year-old, pro-bowler has been limited to just 4 games this year due to a quad injury. The Ohio State product last played against Kansas City in Week 8 on Oct. 27. He’s missed 7 of Washington’s last 8 games. He caught a franchise-record 13 touchdown passes last season. McLaurin missed all of training camp due to a contract holdout. He signed a three-year, $97 million extension on Aug. 25. 

GAME STORYLINES: DENVER

After going 12-4 in 2015 and winning Super Bowl 50 — defeating the 15-1 Carolina Panthers 24-10 — the Denver Broncos went on to miss the playoffs for the next 7 seasons (2016-2022). Denver’s plan to rectify the situation was to trade for former Saints head coach Sean Payton in February 2023.

Sean Payton amassed a stellar tenure in New Orleans, finishing with a 152-89 record in 16 seasons (2006-2021) and winning Super Bowl XLIV (46) in the 2009 season. Payton earned the reputation as an offensive guru due to the explosive offenses he had with quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints for many seasons as a head coach, along with productive offensive assistant stints with the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles dating back to 1997.

Sean Payton has quickly turned things around in Denver since arriving in 2023. He went 8-9 in his first season — Denver’s most wins since 2016. He followed that up with a 10-7 mark and a playoff appearance last season. It was Denver’s first playoff appearance and most wins since the 2015 Super Bowl season. 

The catalyst to last season’s success was the play of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The Broncos selected Nix with the 12th overall pick in the 2024 draft out of Oregon. Nix put together a spectacular rookie year passing for 3,775 yards with 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in 17 starts. He also rushed for 430 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Nix finished second to Washington’s Jayden Daniels — the 2nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft — for the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award. 

Bo Nix is producing a solid second season for the AFC West-leading Broncos passing for 2,421 yards with 18 touchdowns to 8 interceptions while completing 61.2 percent of his passes through 11 games. Nix will likely end up with similar stats to last season, but his knack of making clutch plays late in games is a big reason for Denver’s improvement this season. Nix has led game-winning, fourth quarter drives in 5 of Denver’s 9 wins this season.

Denver’s dominant defense is also a key to this season’s massive success. Denver has a league-leading 49 sacks, they are on track to lead the NFL in sacks for a second straight season. The Broncos rank third in total defense (yards allowed). 

All-Pro cornerback and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II (27 tackles in 8 gms), linebackers Nik Bonitto (33 tackles, 9.5 sacks in 11 gms) and Jonathon Cooper (33 tackles, 7.5 sacks in 11 gms) along with cornerback Ja’Quan McMillan (35 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception in 11 gms) are the standouts on a deep and talented defense. Surtain will make return this week after missing the last 3 games with a partially torn pectoral muscle

The elite coaching from Sean Payton, the strong quarterback play from second-year star Bo Nix and a stout defense will likely result in an AFC West division crown and the end of the Kansas City Chiefs reign as division champs. The Chiefs had won 9 straight division crowns (2016-2024) and were rarely challenged from anyone within the division over those 9 years. 

GAME STORYLINES: WASHINGTON

Poor ownership and inept decision-making from the front office turned Washington’s once-proud franchise into one of the worst in the NFL for 3 decades (1993-2023). Washington only made 6 playoff appearances, captured just 2 division crowns and never advanced to the Super Bowl or the NFC Championship Game over that 31-year span. It was a precipitous fall for a franchise that won 3 Super Bowls (1982, 1987, 1991) over a 10-year span.

Washington’s fortunes changed dramatically after a dismal 4-13 finish in 2023 landed them the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft. Washington selected LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall in the 2024 NFL draft. Daniels won the 2023 Heisman Trophy after finishing with 40 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, while rushing for 1,134 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns at LSU in 2023. 

Jayden Daniels compiled an extraordinary rookie year in 2024, throwing for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns to 9 interceptions while completing 69% of his passes. He also rushed for a rookie quarterback record 891 yards along with 6 rushing touchdowns en route to being named the NFL’s 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Daniels led Washington to a 12-5 record and a trip to the NFC Championship game as a rookie. It was Washington’s most wins and first trip to the NFC title game since 1991. The 1991 Washington squad finished 14-2 and won the Super Bowl.

Expectations were through the roof for Washington coming into the 2025 season after the stellar rookie campaign from Jayden Daniels and the tremendous team success. Unfortunately, the 2025 season is turning out to be a nightmare due to damaging injuries which has translated to terrible play on the field. 

After a thorough 21-6 opening week victory against the New York Giants at home, Washington’s season plummeted beginning with their 27-18 loss at Green Bay in Week 2 on Sep. 11. Versatile running back Austin Ekeler (torn Achilles) and starting defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. (torn quadriceps) both suffered season-ending injuries during the game. Jayden Daniels also sustained a sprained knee in that contest.

The season-ending injuries to Austin Ekeler and Deatrich Wise Jr., along with a knee injury for Jayden Daniels against Green Bay in Week 2 foreshadowed the misery Washington was going to endure in 2025. Daniels’ knee injury kept him out of Washington’s next 2 games. Daniels returned in Week 5 on Oct. 5 and led Washington to an impressive 27-10 win on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Things really unraveled for Washington after their decisive 27-10 win against the Los Angeles Chargers on Oct. 5. Jayden Daniels only lasted 2 games before suffering a hamstring injury at Dallas in Week 7 on Oct. 19. He missed Washington’s next game at Kansas City and returned the following week against Seattle at home on Nov. 2. 

The Seattle game will likely be the low point of the season for Washington as they suffered a humiliating, nationally-televised 38-14 loss while losing Jayden Daniels to a gruesome dislocated left elbow in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach — Washington was down 38-7 with 7:39 remaining. Many argued that Daniels shouldn’t have been in the game at that point. 

Jayden Daniels did not sustain any ligament damage and would not require surgery for the dislocated elbow, meaning he could return at some point in the season. But with Washington sitting at 3-8 and currently on an 6-game losing streak, they may not be eager to bring back their star quarterback this season.

If Washington keeps Jayden Daniels on the shelf for the rest of the season, he’ll end the year passing for 1,184 yards with 8 touchdowns to 2 interceptions on 62.5 % completions in 6 games. He rushed for 262 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Daniels returned to practice in a limited capacity during the week, but was ruled out of Sunday’s game. Veteran backup Marcus Mariota has thrown for 1,065 yards with 7 touchdowns to 5 interceptions across 7 games in relief of Daniels. 

THE PICK: BRONCOS (-5.5)

We have two teams going in opposite directions as Denver has won 8 in a row and is playing for the top seed in the AFC, while Washington has dropped 6 in a row. Four of Washington’s six straight losses have been by at least 21 points. I think Washington gets pounded again tonight on NBC, Lay the Points…Denver 31, Washington 14