Ole Miss @ Mississippi State – Kiffin Leaving Impact?

Ole Miss and Mississippi State meet in the Egg Bowl on November 28, 2025 (12:00 PM UTC) in Starkville with a lot on the line — Ole Miss chasing an 11-win season and Mississippi State fighting for bowl eligibility. The DraftKings market currently lists Mississippi State +7.5 and a game total of 63.5.

Team Analysis

Ole Miss

• Record/standing: The Rebels enter Week 14 at 10-1 (6-1 SEC) and sitting inside the Top 10 / playoff conversation.
• Offense: Ole Miss averages roughly 37.2 PPG and ranks among the FBS leaders in passing yards — the offense is high-powered and balanced.
• QB situation / key pieces: Sophomore Austin Simmons has taken meaningful snaps this season and is listed as active; Trinidad Chambliss has also started multiple games and provided a dual-threat spark when needed.
• Recent form: Ole Miss has won four straight coming in and beat Florida 34-24 in their most recent outing.

Mississippi State

• Record/standing: The Bulldogs sit at 5-6 (1-6 SEC) and need one more win to reach bowl eligibility.
• Offense / QB: Blake Shapen has been the primary signal-caller and has thrown for well over 2,000 yards this season while keeping the Bulldogs competitive in several games.
• Recent form: MSU is coming off a heavy loss to Missouri (49-27) and has been up-and-down in SEC play.
• Scheme / coach: Jeff Lebby is in his second year as head coach and has installed an aggressive offensive identity that can explode for big plays.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: Ole Miss leads the series 66-49-6 and has won four of the last five meetings, including the 2024 result (26-14).
• Important player matchups:

– Ole Miss run game (Kewan Lacy / Chambliss carries) vs. Miss State front-seven, where the Bulldogs have struggled vs. the rush all year. – Blake Shapen and MSU’s receivers vs. Ole Miss secondary — MSU needs efficiency to keep drives alive.

• Key injuries and news:

– Ole Miss QB availability was a storyline earlier in the year (ankle for Austin Simmons) with Trinidad Chambliss starting some games; week-of availability reports have been mixed. – Mississippi State listed question marks around WR Brenen Thompson and safety Isaac Smith leading into the week, with coaches giving limited media updates. – Off-field: Lane Kiffin’s future has been a major narrative all week and could be a distraction for Ole Miss.

• Home/away performance: Mississippi State is 3-3 at home this season while Ole Miss is 2-1 on the road; Starkville environments historically tighten rivalry games.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis:

– DraftKings has Mississippi State +7.5 and other books show-7 to -7.5 for Ole Miss — the market is consistent with Ole Miss favored by roughly a touchdown. – Public money is pushing Ole Miss due to Playoff implications, but historical Egg Bowl trends favor the dog covering at a surprisingly high rate.

• Total (over/under) analysis:

– Market totals cluster in the 62.5–63.5 range depending on the book; Ole Miss averages ~57 combined points per game in their matchups while Mississippi State’s games have averaged mid-50s totals — the line reflects offense vs. porous MSU rush defense. – Several models (SportsLine, SP+) lean toward Ole Miss wins by double digits and project mid- to low-60s scoring — borderline for the posted total.

• Best value opportunities:

– If you want value against public Lean: Mississippi State +7.5 as a home dog (historically the Egg Bowl dog covers more than expected and MSU matches up physically in spots). – Player-prop edges: buy into run-heavy props for Ole Miss backs (Kewan Lacy) given MSU’s rushing defense struggles.

• Prediction:

– The smart lean: Ole Miss wins but the spread is closer than the public expects. If MSU plays with house money and gets turnovers or OT-style clock management, +7.5 is attractive. Given Ole Miss’ offensive firepower and playoff stakes, I expect the Rebels to win but not necessarily blow out the Bulldogs.

• Final pick:

– My pick: Mississippi State +7.5 (bet for the home-dog value) and a small play on Under 63.5 if you can find 62.5–63.0 pricing (mirror choice depends on book).

Wannamakeabet’s points-based system (which weights matchup, injuries, spread value and weather) gives the dog cover the edge in this Egg Bowl setup — play MSU +7.5 as the primary ticket and sprinkle the under as a hedge.