College Football Picks 11/28: Aggies @ Longhorns – Will The Aggies Stay Perfect?

Texas A&M visits Texas on Friday, Nov. 28, 2025 in what promises to be a high-stakes Lone Star showdown. The market currently lists Texas +2.5 and an O/U of 52.5, with a clear clash between an undefeated Aggies squad and a home Longhorns team trying to protect postseason aspirations.

Team Analysis

Texas A&M

• Season overview and recent form

– Texas A&M (11-0) arrives unbeaten and sitting inside the top five of the polls after a season that’s featured marquee wins and consistent offensive output. – The Aggies average~465 YPG and 38.1 PPG, ranking among the FBS leaders offensively while their defense holds opponents to roughly 21.5 PPG. That balance has driven their undefeated run. – Recent tape: A dominant win over Samford and steady defensive performances late in games suggest A&M closes well, particularly on the road when needed to protect an unblemished record.

Texas

• Season overview and recent form

– Texas (8-3) is battle-tested with signature wins and a potent offense led by Arch Manning, who has recently posted big numbers and a multi-touchdown performance in the win over Arkansas. – The Longhorns average roughly 381.5 YPG and 29.8 PPG, an offense that can explode in a hurry but has shown some vulnerability defending the run and in certain matchups. – At home in Austin — and with rivalry energy — Texas typically tightens up and feeds off the crowd, which is a nontrivial edge in November rivalry football.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history

– This rivalry’s return to Austin has weight: recent seasons have been competitive with both teams trading wins; momentum this year favors A&M on paper but the rivalry tends to compress differences.

• Important player matchups

– Marcel Reed (A&M QB) vs. Texas front seven — Reed’s ability to manage the game and stretch the field will determine whether A&M controls tempo; A&M’s balanced attack forces Texas to defend both run and pass. – Arch Manning vs. A&M secondary — Manning’s recent hot streak (including a 4-TD passing, 1 rushing performance vs Arkansas) means A&M must limit the big-play throws and force Texas to grind methodically.

• Key injuries and news

– Public injury reports list a few questionable backs and role players but no franchise-changing absences listed in late-week reports; Le’Veon Moss (A&M) was noted as doubtful in one update while many skill players remain active. Monitor final Thursday/Friday reports for any last-minute scratches.

• Home/away performance

– A&M has shown it can win on the road in hostile environments this season; Texas defends its house well, and the crowd factor in Austin historically narrows spreads in rivalry games. Expect the atmosphere to favor the Longhorns.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis

– Market: Texas +2.5 (Aggies short favorites). The number is tight — a 2.5-point spread effectively splits the difference between “small favorite” and “pick’em” and creates clean sides for bettors. Multiple books show Aggies -2.5 with moneyline parity near -130/ +110 territory depending on site. – Value view: A&M is the stronger team by record and season-long metrics, but the line undervalues Texas’ home-field and rivalry bounce. If you believe home advantage and rivalry compression matter more than raw season stats, taking Texas +2.5 is the square + value play. If you take team strength strictly, A&M -2.5 is a tight but defendable lean. Books have priced this as essentially pick’em.

• Total (over/under) analysis

– The O/U at 52.5 looks reachable: A&M’s offense averages 38 PPG and Texas near 30 PPG on the season; even conservative defensive adjustments still project a combined total near or above 60 points on season averages alone. The market’s 52.5 suggests some respect for the defenses, but game scripts (pace, turnovers, special teams) will determine the tally. Lean: OVER 52.5.

• Best value opportunities

– Small stake on Texas +2.5 (home underdog) for bettors who prize situational edges and rivalry bounce. – Spread parlay / teaser: If you like A&M -2.5 but want insurance, a minor teaser or buying half-point (if available) is sensible. – OVER 52.5 as a second-leg — correlation exists (an A&M win by multiple scores likely pushes total higher). Use a smaller size on totals unless you have contrarian insight into tempo control.

• Prediction

– Expect a close, emotionally charged game that tilts toward A&M’s efficiencies but is compressed by Texas’ home advantage. I project something like Texas A&M 31, Texas 27 — a four-point margin that validates taking the Longhorns with the points and the game clearing the 52.5 total. This aligns with the market’s narrow spread and supports a split approach: main play on Texas +2.5 and a side on OVER 52.5.

Final pick:

• Single-game recommendation: Take Texas +2.5 (primary).
• Secondary/play: Over 52.5 (smaller stake).

Closing note: use Wannamakeabet’s points-based betting system to size these stakes — we give+3 confidence points to the Texas +2.5 play and+1 confidence point to the OVER 52.5 play based on matchup balance, home-field leverage, and season-long scoring trends.