Cincinnati and Baltimore close out Thanksgiving with a primetime AFC North tilt that has major betting implications: Baltimore -7.0, Total 51.5, kickoff Nov. 27 at 8:20 PM UTC. NBC Preview
Team Analysis
Cincinnati
- Season overview and recent form: The Bengals enter the week at roughly 3-8, slogging through one of the NFL’s worst defensive campaigns after losing multiple close games and posting a long losing stretch. ( https://oddscrowd.com/games/cincinnati-bengals-vs-baltimore-ravens-nfl-november-28-2025/5492324/game-preview)
- Defensive profile: Cincinnati’s defense is historically bad this season, allowing north of 32–33 points per game and sitting at or near the bottom of league defensive rankings. ( https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/bengals-defensive-points-allowed-per-game)
- QB and roster news: Franchise QB Joe Burrow has been on IR with a surgically repaired turf-toe but has been cleared for limited practice and is being prepared to start on Thanksgiving; coach Zac Taylor says he “anticipates him playing.” ( https://www.bengals.com/news/joe-burrow-returns-to-practice-2025-bengals-roster-update https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/zac-taylor-anticipates-joe-burrow-181742984.html)
- Other absences: Tee Higgins is out with a concussion for the trip to Baltimore, and Trey Hendrickson remains a question/absence on the pass-rush front. ( https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/tee-higgins-miss-bengals-ravens-180548689.html https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/bengals-defensive-end-trey-hendrickson-ruled-out-for-prime-time-matchup-against-steelers)
Baltimore
- Season overview and recent form: The Ravens come in around 6-5 riding momentum — a multi-game winning run that has pushed them into contention in the AFC North. ( https://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/baltimore-ravens-discussion/78014/baltimore-ravens-week-12-hangover-thread-and-fan-discussion)
- Defensive trends: Baltimore’s defense started badly but has surged after schematic tweaks and personnel moves, tightening up both points allowed and situational defense over the past month. ( https://sports.yahoo.com/article/five-stats-define-baltimore-ravens-151835042.html)
- QB and roster news: Lamar Jackson has managed minor aches but has been practicing and is expected to play; the Ravens have also shuffled pieces on defense to unlock Kyle Hamilton and improve flexibility. ( https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/lamar-jackson-injury-practice-report-ravens-kyle-hamilton-roquan-smith https://sports.yahoo.com/article/five-stats-define-baltimore-ravens-151835042.html)
Key Matchup Factors
- Head-to-head history: Recent meetings have been tightly contested — Baltimore has the edge in the series and has won multiple straight; the two teams played high-scoring affairs last season (35-34 and 41-38 in 2024), showing a track record of offensive shootouts. ( https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap//gameId/401671810 https://www.espn.com/nfl/game//gameId/401671626/ravens-bengals)
- Important player matchups: If Burrow starts, the Bengals’ passing game (when Burrow is available) immediately becomes the focal point; Lamar Jackson versus Cincinnati’s porous secondary is a mismatch Baltimore can exploit both through the air and with designed QB runs. ( https://www.wlwt.com/article/joe-burrow-bengals-previews-thanksgiving-baltimore-ravens/69545726 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cin/2025oppsplits.htm)
- Key injuries and news: Burrow’s activation to play is the week’s biggest swing; Tee Higgins is out, Ja’Marr Chase faced a one-game suspension earlier and roster availability around him has been in flux, and Baltimore has managed minor injuries to Jackson and some skill players but lists him active in practice. ( https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/zac-taylor-anticipates-joe-burrow-181742984.html https://sports.yahoo.com/article/bengals-wr-ja-marr-chase-032444198.html https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/lamar-jackson-injury-practice-report-ravens-kyle-hamilton-roquan-smith)
- Home/away splits: Baltimore’s home edge and primetime familiarity help the Ravens; Cincinnati is poor ATS on the road this season and struggles to close out games. ( https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nfl/news/bengals-vs-ravens-burrow-is-back-prediction-odds-expert-picks-qbs-injury-update-trends-and-stats https://oddscrowd.com/games/cincinnati-bengals-vs-baltimore-ravens-nfl-november-28-2025/5492324/game-preview)
Betting Analysis
- Spread analysis: Market consensus has Baltimore -7.0 at major books (DraftKings/FanDuel/ESPN odds), with moneyline and spread juice reflecting Baltimore as a clear favorite; early market movement suggests books priced in Burrow’s probable start but still favor the Ravens by a touchdown. ( https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nfl/news/bengals-vs-ravens-burrow-is-back-prediction-odds-expert-picks-qbs-injury-update-trends-and-stats https://www.espn.com/nfl/odds/_/gameId/401772930)
- Total (over/under) analysis: The 51.5 total is consistent across the boards and reflects recent head-to-head history and both teams’ tendencies toward high-scoring affairs when Burrow and Jackson are on the field. The market and models (CBS/NBC simulations) lean slightly to the Over. ( https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2025-nfl-thanksgiving-picks-parlay-props-best-bets/ https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nfl/news/bengals-vs-ravens-burrow-is-back-prediction-odds-expert-picks-qbs-injury-update-trends-and-stats)
- Best value opportunities:
– If Burrow is officially listed as the starter and limited in practice, shop the spread—look for Bengals +7 or better as value because Burrow’s mere presence narrows the gap and his return historically improves Cincy’s offense. ( https://www.bengals.com/news/joe-burrow-returns-to-practice-2025-bengals-roster-update https://www.wlwt.com/article/joe-burrow-bengals-previews-thanksgiving-baltimore-ravens/69545726) – Props: Target Lamar Jackson rushing props and Baltimore team total over if books lag on Jackson’s multi-dimensional upside. ( https://www.nfl.com/news/lamar-jackson-returns-ravens-practice-hamstring-injury-week-8)
- Prediction: The smarter line to take depends on the official injury report. If Burrow starts and is healthy enough to push the ball downfield, I expect a competitive, higher-scoring game that narrows the spread; if Burrow is limited or the Bengals’ receiving corps is hamstrung (Higgins out, Chase uncertain), Baltimore covers comfortably. Given current information and Baltimore’s defensive resurgence plus home-field advantage, I lean Ravens -7 and the Over to a lesser degree. ( https://sports.yahoo.com/article/five-stats-define-baltimore-ravens-151835042.html https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/bengals-defensive-points-allowed-per-game)
Final pick: Baltimore -7 (play as side); secondary lean: Game total Over 51.5 (play small). This view aligns with our model that weights injuries, recent form, turnover differential, and pace — check last-minute injury reports and shop lines; if you can get Bengals +7.5 or better, that’s a live hedge play. ( https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nfl/news/bengals-vs-ravens-burrow-is-back-prediction-odds-expert-picks-qbs-injury-update-trends-and-stats https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2025-nfl-thanksgiving-picks-parlay-props-best-bets/)
Wannamakeabet’s system: weight line vs. model edge, bankroll allocation, and situational factors — we recommend sizing to the edge shown above and re-evaluating after the final injury report. ( https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/nfl?category=thanksgiving-specials&subcategory=thursday-specials)
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