NCAAF picks 11/22: Arkansas @ Texas – Tight one coming in Austin

Arkansas

@

Texas

By Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

Arkansas and Texas meet Saturday, Nov. 22 (3:30 PM UTC) in Austin with Texas installed as an 8.5-point favorite and the market hanging 58.5 for total points. This feels like a classic mismatch on paper — an unranked Arkansas squad that’s struggled to close out games against a Texas team licking its wounds after a 35-10 loss to Georgia — but matchup nuance and injuries make this a live betting spot.

Team Analysis

Arkansas

• Season overview and recent form: Arkansas comes into this game reeling after a 23-22 loss at LSU that left the Razorbacks with a poor overall record (listed 2-8 in national box scores) and a run of close defeats; Arkansas has shown explosiveness on offense under Bobby Petrino but has repeatedly failed to finish.
• Key indicators: Arkansas’ offense can move the ball — Taylen Green had 165 yards and 70 rushing yards vs. LSU — but turnovers and missed red-zone opportunities have cost them. The Razorbacks have been one-score killers for opponents and are schematically dangerous in spurts.

Texas

• Season overview and recent form: Texas (7-3 on recent box scores) is coming off a humbling 35-10 defeat at Georgia; that loss highlighted discipline and penalty problems and exposed issues stopping physical SEC opponents in the fourth quarter. Arch Manning remains the passer of note for Texas, but inconsistency has crept in.
• What stands out: Texas still has one of the better talent bases in the league and plays at home in front of a strong crowd; the Longhorns must clean penalties and third-down issues to cover a number like -8.5.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: This is a long-standing rivalry; Texas leads the all-time series and beat Arkansas 20-10 in Fayetteville in 2024, with the rivalry renewed as Texas joined the SEC. Historical edge and program depth favor Texas.
• Important player matchups:

– Arch Manning vs. Arkansas’ secondary — Manning can stretch the field but has been intermittent this year; Arkansas will try to pressure and force mistakes. – Taylen Green and the Arkansas run game vs. Texas front-seven — Green’s mobility creates stress, and if Arkansas can sustain drives it negates Texas’ home-field edge.

• Key injuries and news:

– Texas: LB Anthony Hill Jr. (team leader in tackles) is listed questionable after a hand injury; WR Ryan Wingo is probable with a thumb issue. Availability of Hill in particular affects Texas’ tackling and run defense. – Arkansas: Multiple contributors have been on game-day reports; Braylen Russell and DE Charlie Collins were listed as questionable coming out of the LSU game, and Arkansas has listed several players out across the season which limits rotation. Those absences drive depth concerns.

• Home/away performance: Texas has generally been stronger at home; Arkansas has not shown consistent road resilience this year, which tilts situational advantage to the Longhorns. DraftKings lists Texas -8.5 at home.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: The market at Texas -8.5 implies bookmakers expect Texas to win comfortably but not necessarily blow out a bowl-aspiring Arkansas club that can score quickly. Public lines on DraftKings show that edge; check for juice movement and late injury news on Anthony Hill Jr. — his absence could sap Texas’ defense and swing ATS value.
• Total (over/under) analysis: Market O/U 58.5 is asking bettors to take a moderate-scoring game. Arkansas’ offense can produce points in bursts but Texas’ recent defensive lapses (esp. late) and Arkansas’ turnover issues suggest a controlled game with a chance of quick swings. If Hill is out and Arkansas can run on early downs, the total could inflate; conversely, if both defenses clamp late, under is viable.
• Best value opportunities:

– Look for Texas ATS shrink if Anthony Hill Jr. is active — his presence matters; if he’s out, grab Arkansas +8.5 or better. – Player props: if Ryan Wingo is limited, Arch Manning’s passing volume dips — look at rushing/receiving props for Arkansas’ backs as contrarian plays.

• Prediction: This projects as a Texas win, but not necessarily a comfortable cover. The safer play is to expect a single-digit Longhorn victory with momentum swings favoring Arkansas early if they hit chunk plays. Given the injuries and Arkansas’ recent close-game history, the most logical edge is grabbing the Razorbacks at +8.5 or buying the number down to +7 if available.
• Final pick: Take Arkansas +8.5 (play the dog; buy to +7 if you can) and consider the under 58.5 as a secondary lean if Hill is active and Texas’ front-seven looks healthy. My model tilts toward a 3–8 point Texas win — not enough to cover an 8.5 spread with confidence.

Closing note: Wannamakeabet’s points-based system favors edge plays with injury-driven variance and market inefficiency — this spot checks the boxes for a points allocation to Arkansas ATS (moderate stake) and a smaller allocation to the under if the Texas injury report is clean by kickoff.