NCAAF picks 11/22: Louisville @ SMU

Louisville

@

SMU

By Cal Bailor for Wannamakeabet.com

Louisville and SMU meet Saturday, Nov. 22 in a game that feels like a toss-up on paper but is loaded with nuance for bettors — SMU opened as the favorite and the market has been leaning toward the Mustangs while the total sits around the low-50s. Expect a game decided by situational matchups, injury availability and how each offense exploits halftime adjustments.

Team Analysis

Louisville

• Season overview and recent form: The Cardinals enter at 7-3, coming off a narrow 20-19 loss to Clemson that exposed special teams and turnover fragility despite a stingy defense that ranks among the ACC’s better units. Louisville averages about 31.5 points per game and has shown inconsistent red-zone finishing.
• Injury/availability note: Louisville has notable personnel questions — Miller Moss is listed as questionable for the trip and running back depth has been hit (Isaac Brown sidelined longer-term; KeyJuan Brown listed out for this weekend in one report), which shifts work onto backups and limits play-calling flexibility. Those absences matter because Louisville’s offense leans on gap-running and play-action boots off of a sturdy front.

SMU

• Season overview and recent form: The Mustangs are also 7-3 and riding momentum after a 45-13 win over Boston College that pushed their offense into a high-yardage mode; Kevin Jennings is the clear engine — capable as a passer and runner — and SMU averages roughly 32 points per game. The Mustangs have been particularly dominant at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, where their home record and crowd splits have been a clear edge.
• Defensive identity: SMU’s defense ranks well against the run (top-15 nationally in several previews), which makes Louisville’s ground-game projections more conditional if their top backs are limited.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: The recent series has favored SMU; the Mustangs beat Louisville 34-27 on Oct. 5, 2024 in a game where Kevin Jennings paced SMU both through the air and on the ground. That memory matters for both coaching staffs and could be a psychological edge in Dallas.
• Important player matchups:

– Kevin Jennings (SMU) vs. Louisville secondary — Jennings’ big-play tendencies force Louisville to balance bracket coverage and rush lanes; if Jennings gets time, the Mustangs can flip field position quickly. – Louisville RB situation vs. SMU front seven — with Isaac Brown out and KeyJuan Brown trending doubtful/out, Louisville may lean more on short passing and QB runs, which plays into SMU’s strength defending the run.

• Key injuries and news: Louisville’s injury cloud (starting RB question marks, Moss questionable) is the single biggest game-altering factor; SMU’s injury reports have been quieter and their depth at skill positions looks healthier entering Week 13.
• Home/away splits: SMU’s home dominance (strong recent home winning streaks and high public betting share at Gerald J. Ford Stadium) tilts the expectation toward the Mustangs, especially with market consensus showing heavy public backing in several odds-aggregator pages. Louisville has been respectable on the road but is more vulnerable without its usual backfield rotation.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: DraftKings lists SMU -3.0 as the primary spread for this game (market consensus near -2.5 to -3.5 across shops). The market has been favoring SMU and public money has concentrated on the Mustangs in many books, but Louisville’s ATS record and recent tight losses suggest a close game is likely. If Miller Moss is ruled out, that moves juice further toward SMU.
• Total (over/under) analysis: The posted total here is roughly 51.5–52.5 depending on the book; both teams average in the low-30s, and Louisville’s games have landed around a 53–54 average total this season. Defensive strengths (Louisville overall defense, SMU run D) argue for a lower-scoring outcome if drives stall and special teams don’t create swing points — but both QBs can produce chunk plays that push toward the over. This is a true coin flip; lean to the under if Louisville’s key offensive pieces are inactive.
• Best value opportunities:

– If Miller Moss is confirmed out or limited, consider SMU -3 or buy a half-point (SMU -3.5) as value — the public would shift to Louisville live but the underlying matchup favors SMU at home. – If injury reports come clean and Louisville is near full strength, the spread tightens; consider Louisville +3 or the moneyline if the price reaches plus-money, since Louisville’s defense and turnover potential keep this within a field-goal.

• Prediction: This projects as a low-to-medium scoring, tightly contested game where home-field and availability tilt the edge. With the market at SMU -3.0 and current injury indications favoring SMU’s healthier roster plus a home advantage, the recommendation is to take SMU -3 while monitoring the final injury report; if Louisville’s running game is fully available, switch to the total under 52 or Louisville +3.5 as alternate plays.

Final pick: SMU -3 (primary) — if late reports downgrade Miller Moss or KeyJuan Brown remains out, lock this in; otherwise consider Under 51.5 or Louisville +3.5 as secondary options. This pick aligns with Wannamakeabet’s points-based system that weights injuries, home-field, and recent betting splits — SMU gets the narrow edge in that model heading into kickoff.