NFL picks 11/23: New England @ Cincinnati – Are the Bengals Done?

New England

@

Cincinnati

NFL Schedule

• New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, Nov 23, 2025 at 10:00 AM PST

The New England Patriots (9-2) are set to face the Cincinnati Bengals (3-7) on Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 1:00 PM EST at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Patriots enter the game as 8.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 50.5 points.

Team Analysis

New England

• Season Overview and Recent Form: The Patriots have been on an impressive run, winning eight consecutive games. Their most recent victory was a 27-14 win over the New York Jets, where rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson showcased his talent with 147 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Drake Maye contributed 281 passing yards and a touchdown, while wide receiver Stefon Diggs added 105 receiving yards. This performance underscores the Patriots’ offensive prowess and their ability to dominate on both sides of the ball.

Cincinnati

• Season Overview and Recent Form: The Bengals have struggled this season, currently holding a 3-7 record. Their most recent game was a 34-12 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, where wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase was suspended for unsportsmanlike conduct after an altercation with Steelers cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Chase, who leads the league with 79 receptions for 861 yards and five touchdowns, will be absent for this matchup. Additionally, tight end Mike Gesicki has been cleared to return to practice after a pectoral injury, but his availability for the game remains uncertain.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-Head History: In their previous encounter on September 8, 2024, the Patriots secured a 16-10 victory over the Bengals. This close matchup indicates that while the Patriots have had the upper hand, the games have been competitive.

• Important Player Matchups: With Chase suspended, the Bengals will need to rely on other receivers to step up. The Patriots’ secondary, which has been effective this season, will likely focus on limiting the impact of these receivers. On the offensive side, the Patriots’ running back committee, led by Henderson, will aim to exploit the Bengals’ defense, which has struggled against the run.

• Key Injuries and News: The Patriots will be without defensive tackle Milton Williams, who is expected to miss several weeks due to a high ankle sprain. Williams has been a key contributor this season, recording 27 tackles, including seven for loss, eight quarterback hits, and 3.5 sacks. His absence may impact the Patriots’ defensive line performance.

• Home/Away Performance: The Patriots have been strong on the road, maintaining a 5-0 record away from home. In contrast, the Bengals have a 2-3 record at home, indicating challenges in defending their turf.

Betting Analysis

• Spread Analysis: The Patriots are favored by 8.5 points. Given their recent form and the Bengals’ struggles, this line appears reasonable. However, considering the Patriots’ strong road performance and the Bengals’ home challenges, the Patriots covering the spread seems likely.

• Total (Over/Under) Analysis: The over/under is set at 50.5 points. While the Patriots’ offense has been potent, the Bengals’ offense may struggle without Chase, potentially leading to a lower-scoring game. Additionally, the Patriots’ defense has been effective, which could further suppress scoring. Therefore, the under appears to be a prudent choice.

• Best Value Opportunities: Betting on the Patriots to cover the spread seems to offer good value, considering their current form and the Bengals’ recent challenges. Additionally, the under on the total points is a reasonable bet, given the factors discussed.

• Prediction: The Patriots are likely to extend their winning streak to nine games, defeating the Bengals by a margin that covers the 8.5-point spread. The game is expected to be moderately low-scoring, with the under on the total points being a favorable outcome.

• Final Pick: Patriots -8.5 and Under 50.5

For more in-depth analysis and betting insights, consider visiting reputable sports betting platforms and consulting expert opinions.