NFL Picks 11/2 – Vikings @ Lions

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week 9 of the NFL season presents a battle of long-time NFC Central rivals as the Minnesota Vikings (3-4) visit the Detroit Lions (5-2) on Sunday afternoon at Ford Field. This is the first of two regular season meetings between the teams. 

Minnesota and Detroit are squaring off for the first time since a high-stakes, winner-take-all contest in the final regular season game (Week 18) of last season where the winner would clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the NFC Central division crown, while the loser would fall to the No. 5 seed. 

The Lions cruised to a 31-9 victory at home finishing with a 15-2 record and securing the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Vikings dropped to 14-3 and earned the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs. Both teams went on to lose their playoff openers. 

Detroit is an 8-point favorite and the total is 48.5. The line opened at 4.5 and saw a 3.5 to 4-point swing in Detroit’s favor due to Minnesota’s instability at quarterback. 

Both teams had an extended period of rest entering Sunday’s contest as Minnesota last played on Thursday night (Oct. 23) in Week 8, while Detroit had a bye in Week 8 and last played on Oct. 20.

Minnesota is coming off a 37-10 thumping at the hands of Los Angeles Chargers on the road ten days ago. The Chargers defense constantly harassed Vikings quarterback Carson Wentz throughout the game, sacking him five times and intercepting him once. It was later revealed that Wentz suffered a dislocated shoulder and torn labrum against the Cleveland Browns in Week 5 on Oct. 5, but decided to play through the injury after a bye in Week 6 and a 28-22 loss to Philadelphia in Week 7 on Oct. 19. 

Carson Wentz will undergo season-ending surgery on his shoulder. He was placed on IR on Oct. 27. J.J. McCarthy will get the start for Minnesota against Detroit on Sunday. McCarthy has not played since Week 2 due to a high right-ankle sprain. 

Detroit picked up a convincing 24-9 win against the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 7 on Monday Night Football 13 days ago (Oct. 20). Lions superstar running back Jahmyr Gibbs amassed a career-high 218 yards from scrimmage (136 rushing, 82 receiving) and two rushing touchdowns in the win. Gibbs rushed for a 78-yard touchdown in the second quarter that gave Detroit a 14-0 lead. His 136 rushing yards against Tampa Bay was a season-high.

Lions quarterback Jared Goff completed 20 of 29 passes for 241 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown finished with team-highs of six receptions and 86 yards, along with a touchdown. Detroit’s defense delivered a dominant performance, sacking Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield four times and intercepting him once.

Sunday’s game marks the return of Vikings starting quarterback J.J. Mcarthy to the state of Michigan where he played his college ball. McCarthy was the starting quarterback for a University of Michigan squad that went undefeated (15-0) in 2023 and won the 2023-24 BCS National Championship. McCarthy was 27-1 as Michigan’s starting quarterback over his final two collegiate seasons (2022 and 2023) wearing the maize and blue.  

GAME STORYLINES: MINNESOTA

Last season, the Minnesota Vikings finished with a somewhat surprising 14-3 record. It was the Vikings highest win total since going 15-1 in 1998. The Vikings 14-win season was triggered by the magnificent play of quarterback Sam Darnold — who posted career-highs of 4,319 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 66.2 completion percentage and 17 games played.  

Minnesota signed Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal prior to the 2024 season. He was expected to back up rookie J.J. McCarthy, who the Vikings selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. McCarthy ended up sustaining a season-ending right knee injury (torn meniscus) in the Vikings preseason opener, allowing Darnold to win the starting job by default and produce a career year. 

Once the 2024 season concluded, Minnesota had a tough decision to make on free-agent-to-be Sam Darnold. Should they sign Darnold to a lucrative multi-year contract or allow him to go elsewhere as a free agent, and develop J.J. McCarthy as the starting quarterback? The Vikings chose the latter, and Darnold agreed to a three-year, $110 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks. Minnesota signed veteran quarterback Carson Wentz to a one-year, 1.42 million dollar deal to back up J.J. McCarthy.

The decision to let Sam Darnold walk as a free agent is turning out to be a big mistake for Minnesota as starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy suffered a high right-ankle sprain in a listless 22-6 loss against Atlanta at home in Week 2 on Sep. 14. McCarthy hasn’t played since then. Backup quarterback Carson Wentz played the next 5 games but suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Minnesota’s 37-10 loss against the Chargers in Los Angeles. McCarthy will make his return on Sunday at Detroit.

To make matters worse, Sam Darnold is thriving (1,754 passing yards, 12 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, 68.2 completion % in 7 gms) with 5-2 Seattle, while Minnesota already has more losses (4) than it did all of last season (3).

Despite the uneven season and instability at quarterback, superstar wideout Justin Jefferson is amassing another stellar season. The 26-year-old, LSU product has 41 catches for 602 yards and a touchdown through 7 games. His 602 receiving yards ranks 5th in the NFL. Jefferson’s 8,034 receiving yards over his first 6 NFL seasons ranks third all-time behind Tory Holt (8,156) and Randy Moss (8,375). He needs 344 yards yards to surpass Moss for first. 

GAME STORYLINES: DETROIT

Over the past 2 seasons, the Detroit Lions have gone from one of the worst franchises in the NFL to one of the NFL’s elite franchises. In 2023, Detroit finished 12-5 and advanced to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991. They followed that up with a franchise-record 15 wins last season, a second straight NFC Central division crown and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The 2024 season ended with a shocking 45-31 upset loss to the No. 6 seed Washington Commanders in the divisional round of the playoffs. 

Season-ending injuries to key defensive players (Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeil, Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez) during the regular season proved to be too much for Detroit to overcome in the divisional playoff game as Washington continually gashed the Lions somewhat depleted defense. 

Detroit’s top two assistants in 2024 accepted head coaching jobs in the offseason as defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn was hired by the New York Jets, while offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was hired by the Chicago Bears. The losses of Glenn and Johnson has not deterred Detroit in 2025 as they still possess a potent offense and a stingy defense.

On offense, quarterback Jared Goff (1,631 passing yards, 15 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, 74.9% completions in 7 gms), wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (538 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns in 7 gms) along with the running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs (526 rushing yards, 194 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns in 7 gms) and David Montgomery (355 rushing yards, 96 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns in 7 gms) are the standouts on arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL. 

Defensively, All-Pro defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (16 tackles, 6 sacks, 4 forced fumbles in 7 gms) anchors Detroit’s outstanding defense. The 25-year-old Hutchinson was in the midst of a dominant season (7.5 sacks in 5 gms) last year before a gruesome leg injury ended his season in a Week 6 win at Dallas. On Wednesday (Oct. 29), Detroit signed Hutchinson to a massive four-year, $180 million extension with $141 million guaranteed. The $141 million guaranteed is the most ever for a non-quarterback.

THE PICK: LIONS (-8)

Detroit has been exceptional in its 3 home games outscoring its opponents (Chicago, Cleveland and Tampa Bay) by an average of 23.3 points per game. I expect a similar result in this game as the Lions face an inexperienced J.J. McCarthy, who will be making just his third NFL start. Lay the Points…Lions 41, Vikings 21