College Football Picks 11/1 – Penn State @ Ohio State

by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

• Ohio State is undefeated at 7–0 entering this game. Land-Grant Holy Land+1

• Penn State is 3–4 and has lost four straight conference games. Land-Grant Holy Land+1

• The Buckeyes are widely favored: lines around OSU –18.5 to –20.5 points. cbssports.com+2Land-Grant Holy Land+2

• This game is notable because it may be the last time the regular-season rivalry is played until 2028. SI+1

Strengths & Weaknesses

Ohio State – strengths:

• Their defense is dominant: holding opponents to very few points/yards. prizepicks.com+2cbssports.com+2

• Their quarterback, Julian Sayin, is efficient and productive: high completion rate, low turnovers. prizepicks.com+2cbssports.com+2

• They have a balanced offense (pass + rush) which makes them harder to defend. prizepicks.com+1

Penn State – challenges:

• Their offense is struggling: their replacement quarterback has had difficulty stepping in after the starter’s injury. cbssports.com

• They have internal issues: coaching transition, inconsistency. New York Post+1

• Even when they lose, they’ve kept things relatively close historically vs. Ohio State—but the recent performance suggests fewer of those “close losses” might go their way this time. SI+1

Key match-up to watch

• How well can Penn State establish their run game against an OSU defense that is strong against both the pass and the rush? If the Nittany Lions can’t generate a credible rushing attack, their offense will likely be one-dimensional and easier to defend.

• Can Ohio State get Sayin going early and build momentum before Penn State has a chance to settle? Building a lead will force Penn State to pass more, which plays into Ohio State’s strengths.

Prediction

Based on the analytics and recent form:

• The SP+ model predicts around Ohio State 32, Penn State 19 (≈13-point margin) with about an 80% chance of the Buckeyes winning outright. SI

• Other expert previews show more dominant predictions: many suggest OSU winning by 20+ points. elevenwarriors.com+1

• My take: I expect Ohio State to win comfortably, likely in the range of 35-10 to 30-14. Given Penn State’s issues, I don’t see them keeping pace for a full game.

• On the spread: With OSU favored around –18 to –20, it’s plausible OSU covers, but not guaranteed. If Penn State tightens up early, the margin could shrink.

• On total points: With both defenses and offenses considered, a total (if set around mid-40s) could lean under, especially if Ohio State’s defense dominates.

My Final Pick

• Winner: Ohio State

• Margin: ~20+ points

• Projected Score: Ohio State 34, Penn State 7

• Cover?: Likely yes (OSU –18)

• Total Points: Lean under if the line is ~44-46