NBA Picks 10/30 – Heat @ Spurs

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Miami Heat (3-1) visit the undefeated San Antonio Spurs (4-0) at Frost Bank Center in a matchup of teams who finished below .500 last season, but are off to fast starts this year. Tonight is the first of two regular season meetings between Miami and San Antonio, they’ll square off again on March 23 in Miami. The Heat have dominated the Spurs of late winning five in a row and six of the last seven. Miami has also won four in a row at San Antonio. The Spurs last home win against the Heat occurred on Jan. 19, 2020.

San Antonio is a 5.5-point favorite and the total is 232.5.

Miami pounded the visiting Charlotte Hornets 144-117 in their previous game on Tuesday night. Miami won the game without leading scorer Norman Powell (24ppg), who was out due to a groin injury. Seven players scored in double figures for the Heat led by Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s 28 points (9-14 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 8-8 FT) in 28 minutes off the bench. Miami’s bench accounted for 58 points.

Heat center Bam Adebayo contributed 26 points (10-16 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 3-4 FT) and six rebounds across 30 minutes, while Andrew Wiggins notched 21 points (8-15 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three steals, 2 rebounds, 2 assists and a block in 30 minutes. Miami has won three in a row since dropping the season opener at Orlando.

With their huge scoring output against Charlotte, Miami became the second team in NBA history to score 140 or more points twice over the first four games of a season. They also eclipsed the 140-point mark in a 146-114 rout at Memphis on Oct. 24.

The undefeated Spurs hammered the visiting Toronto Raptors 121-103 at home in their previous game on Monday night. All-World Spurs center Victor Wembenyama amassed 24 points (7-8 FG, 10-10 FT), 15 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal and 1 block across 31 minutes in the victory. He’s posted a double-double in all four games this season.

Second-year star and 2024-25 Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle added 22 points (6-12 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 9-14 FT), five rebounds, four assists and two steals in 31 minutes. San Antonio’s 4-0 start equals its best start in franchise history. They’ve started 4-0 on four separate occasions, most recently in 2017. San Antonio has never began a season 5-0.

2025-26 SEASON OUTLOOK: MIAMI HEAT

After signing Jimmy Butler to a four-year, $142 million contract in July 2019, he proceeded to compile a stellar five-year run (2020-2024) with Miami. Butler led Miami to 2 NBA Finals appearances (2020 and 2023) and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance (2022) over four postseasons when healthy. Butler earned the moniker ‘Playoff Jimmy’ due to his knack for turning in herculean individual efforts during the 2020, 2022 and 2023 postseasons.

Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse between Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat during the 2024 offseason when Butler became eligible for a 2-year, $113 million extension and Miami refused to extend him. Butler became increasingly frustrated as the 2024-25 season went on due to not receiving the hefty extension. Butler eventually vented his frustration publicly which led to an indefinite suspension, followed by a trade to the Golden State Warriors on Feb. 7, 2024.

Miami’s turbulent 2024-25 season ended with a humiliating four-game sweep at the hand of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. Cleveland’s four-game sweep was the most lopsided in playoff history, winning each contest by an average margin of 30.2 points per game. Miami lost the final two games of the series at home by a combined 92 points.

Miami entered the 2025-26 season with big question marks after the acrimonious split with Jimmy Butler and the pitiful playoff performance against Cleveland marred last season. Their biggest offseason move was acquiring veteran scorer Norman Powell from the Los Angeles Clippers in a three-way trade. The 32-year-old Powell averaged a career-high 21.8 points per game with the Clippers last year.

The Heat acquired Norman Powell with the intention of him being a reliable second scorer to Tyler Herro, who averaged a team-leading and career-high 23.9 ppg last season. Through 3 games, Powell has fulfilled Miami’s expectations as he’s averaging a team-high 24 points per game, along with 7.3 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals. He’ll likely be relied on to be Miami’s primary scoring threat as Herro (ankle) will be out until at least mid-November.

Norman Powell missed Miami’s win against Charlotte on Tuesday night due to a groin injury. He’s considered doubtful to play in tonight’s contest at San Antonio.

Three-time All-Star center Bam Adebayo (21 pts, 9 rebs, 2,8 asts, 2.3 threes in 4 gms this year), veteran swingman Andrew Wiggins (14.5 pts, 4.5 rebs, 1.2 stls, 1 blk, 50% from 2) and reserve forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. (18.8 pts, 6.3 rebs, 4.3 asts, 1.3 stls, 68.9% from 2) are also expected to be big contributions alongside Norman Powell. The third-year, UCLA product Jaquez Jr. appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Tyler Herro’s absence as he’s now become more of a focal point on offense.

2025-26 SEASON OUTLOOK: SAN ANTONIO

During the 2022-23 season, every non-playoff team appeared to be tanking games in order to increase their chances of securing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft and landing highly-touted 7-foot-5 center Victor Wembenyama. The then-19-year-old French phenom was one of the most ballyhooed draft prospects in NBA history.

The Detroit Pistons ended the 2022-23 season with the worst record in the NBA at 17-65, but San Antonio (22-60) won the draft lottery in May 2023 securing the No. 1 overall pick. San Antonio selected Victor Wembenyama first overall in the draft one month later. It was the third time in franchise history that San Antonio landed the No. 1 overall pick. The previous two times also netted highly-regarded franchise centers in David Robinson (1987) and Tim Duncan(1997).

Victor Wembenyama certainly lived up to the enormous expectations during his first two seasons winning Rookie of the Year in 2024 after averaging 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks, 1.8 threes and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 46.5 percent from the floor in 71 contests. He raised those averages to 24.3 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 3.8 blocks, 3.1 threes and 1.1 steals while shooting 47.6 percent from the floor last season and was named an All-Star.

Unfortunately, Victor Wembenyama played in only 46 games last year after deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder ended his season in February. San Antonio was 24-29 when Wembenyama went down with the injury and finished the year 10-19 without him, resulting in a 34-48 overall record.

After a diverse summer workout that included a 10-day retreat at the Shaolin Monastery in China to practice Kung Fu, strength and conditioning work to gain muscle mass, along with workouts with NBA Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon, Victor Wembenyama entered the 2025-26 season in what looked to be the best shape of his life.

Victor Wembenyama’s diverse offseason training appears to have paid immediate dividends as he quickly put the NBA on notice with a scintillating opening night performance at Dallas on ESPN. The 21-year-old superstar amassed 40 points (15-21 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 9-11 FT), 15 rebounds and 3 blocks in 30 minutes as San Antonio routed Dallas 125-92. He has maintained that high level of play through four games this year. Most importantly, Wembenyama’s individual dominance is leading to wins as San Antonio is 4-0 on the young season.

Through four games, Victor Wembenyama is averaging a whopping 31 points, 13.8 rebounds, 4.8 blocks, 2.8 assists and 1.5 steals while shooting 60.3 percent from the floor. After experiencing two straight losing seasons in years one and two, Wembenyama looks primed to lead San Antonio to the playoffs where he can really elevate the status of himself and the team.

San Antonio should get a significant boost when star point guard De’Aaron Fox returns from a strained right hamstring. The Spurs acquired the speedy point guard from the Sacramento Kings last February in a three-way trade. The 27-year-old Fox averaged at least 20 points and around 6 assists per game in each of his previous 6 seasons with Sacramento.

De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembenyama only played a handful of games together last season as Wembenyama was lost for the season shortly after the Spurs acquired Fox. They have the potential to develop into a devastating 1-2 combination once they start playing together on a regular basis. Fox could make his season debut within the next few days.

THE PICK: SPURS (-5.5)

The undefeated Spurs have won three of their four games by double digits. I expect more of the same tonight against a Miami team that will likely be without its leading scorer Norman Powell. Lay the Points and take the Spurs!