NFL Picks 10/19 – Falcons @ 49ers

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Atlanta Falcons (3-2) visit the injury-riddled San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Levi’s Stadium on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. The former NFC West division rivals are meeting for the first time since 2022. The Falcons picked up a 28-14 victory against the visiting 49ers on that day. Atlanta has won three of the last four against San Francisco dating back to the 2016 season. 

San Francisco is a 2-point favorite and the total is 47.5. San Francisco was listed as a 6.5-point favorite over Atlanta prior to the season. The four point swing in Atlanta’s favor shows the amount of significant injuries San Francisco has endured this season.

Atlanta is coming off an impressive 24-14 win against perennial AFC power Buffalo at home on Monday Night Football. Atlanta’s much-improved defense neutralized Buffalo’s explosive offense for the entire game. They sacked reigning MVP Josh Allen four times and picked him off twice.

Superstar running back Bijan Robinson was stellar against Buffalo, tying a career-high with 170 rushing yards on 19 carries. He added six catches for 68 yards. Robinson’s 238 yards from scrimmage established a career-high. His 81-yard touchdown run in the second quarter was also a career-best and the NFL’s longest run of the season.

Falcons wideout Drake London also had a big game finishing with 10 catches for 158 yards and a touchdown. It was his second straight contest with at least 100 yards and a touchdown. The young duo of Bijan Robinson (23) and Drake London (23) accounted for 396 of Atlanta’s 443 yards of offense. Second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. completed 20 of 32 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown.

The 49ers are coming off a 30-19 loss at Tampa Bay last week. The short-handed 49ers put up another valiant effort — they trailed 20-19 midway through the third quarter — but were unable to contain Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield, who consistently made big plays throughout the game.

Unfortunately, San Francisco’s injury misfortune continued last week when All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner suffered a broken and dislocated ankle that turned his foot sideways. Warner was placed on injured reserve and will miss the rest of the season. 

49ers backup quarterback Mac Jones completed 27 of 39 passes for 347 yards and two interceptions. It was his second straight game with at least 300 yards passing. Versatile star running back Christian McCaffrey rushed for 54 yards on 17 carries and a rushing touchdown. He added 7 catches for 54 yards. He’s totaled 100 or more yards from scrimmage in all 6 games this season. 

 

GAME STORYLINES: ATLANTA

For 14 seasons (2008-2021), quarterback Matt Ryan compiled a magnificent career with the Falcons. He is the franchise leader in a multitude of catagories including passing yards (62,792), passing touchdowns (381) and passer rating (93.6). Ryan led the Falcons to its second Super Bowl appearance in 2016. Despite the tremendous amount of success, Atlanta parted ways with Ryan following the 2021 season — after four straight losing seasons. The Falcons traded him to the Indianapolis Colts in March 2022. 

In the subsequent years following Matt Ryan’s departure, Atlanta had Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Kirk Cousins start at quarterback and quickly moved on from all three. The Falcons believe they’ve found their long-term replacement for Matt Ryan in Michael Penix Jr. — who they selected eighth overall in the 2024 NFL draft.  

After spending most of his rookie year sitting behind Kirk Cousins, Michael Penix Jr. took over for an inconsistent Cousins in Week 16 of the 2024 season. He’s been Atlanta’s starting quarterback ever since and looks to be the team’s long-term starting quarterback. On the season, Penix has 1,168 yards passing with 4 touchdowns to 3 interceptions while completing 62.8 percent of his passes through 5 games.

Atlanta’s exceptional drafting over the last few seasons on offense and defense has contributed to a sense of unbridled optimism for the teams future. Running backs Bijan Robinson (8th overall, 2023) and Tyler Allgeier (5th round pick, 2022), wide receiver Drake London (8th overall, 2022) along with a foursome of outstanding defensive rookies in linebackers Jalon Walker (15th overall) and James Pearce Jr. (26th overall), and safeties Xavier Watts (3rd round) and Billy Bowman Jr. (4th round) are all key contributors who are 25 years of age and younger. 

Third-year running back Bijan Robinson (484 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 338 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown in 5 gms this season) established himself as one of the NFL’s best running backs last season in year two and looks even better in 2025. Tyler Allgeier (187 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns in 5 gms) provides a dynamic 1-2 combo with Robinson out of the backfield. The 23-year-old, fourth-year star wideout Drake London (427 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns in 5 gms) has increased his receiving totals in each of his first three seasons.

The fantastic play of Atlanta’s four rookies may be the most important development for the team. Strong Atlanta teams of the recent past would often possess elite offenses and subpar defenses which led to inconsistent finishes in terms of wins and losses. Safety Xavier Watts (28 tackles, 2 interceptions in 5 gms) leads the team in solo tackles and interceptions. Fellow rookie safety Billy Bowman Jr. has an interception and forced fumble in four games. 

GAME STORYLINES: SAN FRANCISCO

From 2019-2023, the San Francisco 49ers established themselves as one of the elite teams in the NFL. They made two Super Bowl appearances in 2019 and 2023, and back-to-back NFC Championship Game appearances in 2021 and 2022. A strong defense and the exceptional offensive schemes of head coach Kyle Shanahan were the impetus to the 49ers tremendous success over that 5-year span. 

Unfortunately for the 49ers, they’ve been besieged by injuries since the start of the 2024 season. All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey only played in four games last season, while top wideout Brandon Aiyuk played in just 7 games after tearing his ACL and MCL. Losing McCaffrey and Aiyuk, along with recurring injuries for stars like Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle led to an uncharacteristic 6-11 finish for the 49ers last season — a six-game decrease from 2023 when the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl and lost an overtime thriller (25-22) to the Kansas City Chiefs. 

The injury woes are continuing and getting worse for the 49ers in 2025. Star defensive end Nick Bosa (knee) and All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner (ankle) suffered season-ending injuries. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk has yet to play this season as he recovers from last season’s knee injury. Starting quarterback Brock Purdy (toe) has only played in 2 games, All-Pro tight end George Kittle (hamstring) has played in just one game, while wideouts Jauan Jennings (ankle/rib/shoulder) and Ricky Pearsall (knee) have each missed two games. 

Despite the litany of injuries, the 49ers have remained a formidable bunch through 6 games. They currently occupy first place in the NFC West division at 4-2, and have road wins against division rivals Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams. The continued excellence from All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey (336 rushing yards, 444 receiving yards, 4 total touchdowns in 6 gms) is a key reason the 49ers remaining afloat. The 29-year-old superstar leads the team in rushing and receiving. 

Backup quarterback Mac Jones (1,252 passing yards, 6 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in 4 gms) could end up being an unsung hero for the 49ers. The 49ers signed the former 2021 first-round pick (15th overall-Alabama) to a two-year, $7 million deal in March to back up highly-paid starter Brock Purdy. The 27-year-old, Alabama product is experiencing a renaissance with the 49ers after New England and then Jacksonville declined to offer him a second contract. 

Wideout Kendrick Bourne (371 receiving yards in 5 gms) and backup tight end Jake Tonges (224 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns in 4 gms) are both playing well in place of injured starters. The 30-year-old Bourne has posted 142 receiving yards in back-to-back games after recording a total of 97 yards through the first 3 games of the season. The 142 receiving yards is a career-high for the nine-year veteran. Bourne and Mac Jones were teammates for 3 seasons (2021-2023) in New England, which may explain the great success they’ve had over the past 2 weeks.

THE PICK: FALCONS (+2)

It looks like the wrong team is the favorite here. At this point, the 49ers are too depleted to be a favorite against a team with a winning record like Atlanta. I expect the Falcons to ride the momentum of last week’s statement win against Buffalo at home. Take the Points…Falcons 28, 49ers 17!