MLB Picks 10/15 – Blue Jays @ Mariners

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Amercian League Championship Series (ALCS) continues tonight with the No. 1 seed Toronto Blue Jays (94-68 in the regular season, American League East champions) visiting the No. 2 seed Seattle Mariners (90-72 in the regular season, American League West champions) in  Game Three at T-Mobile Park on FS1. Seattle will look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead after winning Games One and Two in Toronto.

Toronto is facing a daunting challenge as only 3 of 28 teams in postseason history have come back to win a series after losing the first two games at home. The Blue Jays will look to join the 1985 Kansas City Royals (vs. Toronto, ALCS), the 1986 New York Mets (vs. Boston, World Series), and the 1996 Atlanta Braves (vs. N.Y. Yankees, World Series) as teams to overcome those odds.

The Blue Jays won all three regular season meetings at Seattle this year, sweeping a three-game set back in May. They’ve won five in a row overall at Seattle dating back to July 2024. The Blue Jays recent success in Seattle could give them a boost of confidence as they look to climb their way out of an 0-2 hole on the road. 

Tonight’s starting pitchers are Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.57 ERA in 7 regular season starts with Toronto, 0-0, 6.75 ERA in 1 postseason start vs. the Yankees) for Toronto and George Kirby (10-8, 4.21 ERA, 137 strikeouts in 23 regular season starts, 0-0, 14 strikeouts, 3 earned runs in 2 postseason starts) for Seattle.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Toronto (+112),  Seattle (-137)

Run Line: Toronto +1.5 (-199),  Seattle -1.5 (+162)

Run Total: over 7 (-105),  under 7 (-115)

SERIES RECAP

After dispatching of the New York Yankees 3-1 in the divisional round of the playoffs, Toronto entered the ALCS as a slight -130 favorite to defeat the Mariners in the ALCS. The Mariners are making their first ALCS appearance since 2001. Toronto’s last ALCS appearance was in 2016.

Game One saw Toronto jump out to an early 1-0 after a George Springer solo homer in the first inning. The game remained a low-scoring pitcher’s duel between Seattle’s Bryce Miller and Toronto’s Kevin Gausman until the sixth inning when Seattle took a 2-1 lead on a Cal Raleigh solo homer and an RBI single from Jorge Polanco. Polanco registered another RBI single in the 8th inning which provided the final run of the game. Polanco and Raleigh each went 2-for-4 for Seattle in the Game One victory. Toronto could only muster two hits against four Seattle pitchers in defeat. 

Seattle jumped out to an early 3-0 lead in Game Two after a three-run homer from Julio Rodriguez in the first inning. Toronto used the ‘small ball’ approach with three RBI singles to tie the game at three by the end of the second inning. Seattle then exploded for 7 runs over the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings to blow the game open and put away the beleaguered Blue Jays. 

Jorge Polanco’s three-run homer in the fifth inning broke a 3-3 tie and began Seattle’s onslaught. Josh Naylor’s two-run homer in the seventh inning gave Seattle a 9-3 lead. Polanco went 2-for-5 with 3 RBI, while Naylor finished 3-for-4 with 2 RBI. Blue Jays outfielder Nathan Lukes finished 3-for-4 with an RBI in a losing effort.

Mariners second baseman Jorge Polanco has been exceptional over the first two games of the ALCS in Toronto. He’s 4-for-9 (.444) with a homer and five RBI. He’s driven in more runs (5) than Toronto has scored (4) in the series. Seattle is two wins away from making its first World Series appearance in franchise history. The Mariners franchise has been in existence since 1977.

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: TORONTO

In 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays finished with a disappointing 74-88 record due to prolonged injuries sustained by several key players (Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk) and inconsistent hitting outside of superstar Vlad Guerrero Jr. The 74 wins was a 15-game decrease from 2023. The Blue Jays rebounded with a tremendous season in 2025. Toronto increased their win total by 20 games in 2025, finishing 94-68 and winning the ultra-competitive American League East division. 

Toronto’s 94 wins this season was their highest total since 1993 when they finished 95-67 and won the World Series. The Blue Jays also won the AL East division for the first time since 2015. Toronto’s prolific season was remarkable when you consider they were just 26-28 on May 28. The Blue Jays caught fire in late May and rode the hot streak all the way to the ALCS.

The catalyst for Toronto’s torrid pace was likely a four-game sweep of the visiting New York Yankees from June 30-July 3. The sweep catapulted Toronto past New York for first place in the American League East standings. The Blue Jays remained in first place for the rest of the season and set the tone for their impending dominance over the Yankees. 

Not only did Toronto hold off a late-season surge from New York to win the division, they knocked off the Yankees 3-1 in the divisional series. Toronto outscored the Yankees 23-8 over the first two games of the divisional series in Toronto before closing them out 5-2 in Game 4 at Yankee Stadium. 

Toronto’s superstar first baseman Vlad Guerrero Jr. put on a stellar performance in the ALDS to lead the Blue Jays past the Yankees. The 26-year-old, five-time All-Star went 9-for-17 (.529) with 3 homers and 9 RBI in the four games against the Yankees. The Blue Jays desperately need Guerrero Jr. to get going in this series as he went 0-for-7 with a walk over the first two games against Seattle at home. 

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: SEATTLE  

In 2022, the Seattle Mariners finished 90-72 and broke a 21-year postseason drought. The Mariners made the postseason for the first time since 2001. Seattle missed the postseason the next two seasons — finishing 88-74 in 2023 and 84-78 in 2024. They blew a 10-game division lead in mid-June allowing the powerhouse Houston Astros to win the division for a seventh straight season. 

Everything changed for Seattle in 2025 as they rode a historic season from superstar slugging catcher Cal Raleigh to a 90-72 record and the American League West division crown. Seattle ended the Houston Astros 7-year reign as AL West champs. The Mariners won the AL West for the first time since 2001. 

Seattle outlasted the Detroit Tigers 3-2 in the divisional round to advance to the ALCS. The Mariners picked up a thrilling 3-2 victory in a 15-inning marathon in the decisive Game 5 at home. Jorge Polanco’s bases-loaded single in the bottom of the 15th inning won it for Seattle. It marked the longest winner-take-all game in postseason history. 

Cal Raleigh’s historic 2025 season concluded with him hitting .247 with 60 homers, 125 RBI and 24 doubles in 159 games. He became the first catcher in MLB history to hit 60 homers in a single season. Raleigh also broke the Mariners single-season home run record which was held by Ken Griffey Jr., who hit 56 in 1997 and 1998. Raleigh is in the running to win the 2025 American League’s Most Valuable Player Award along with Yankees superstar slugger Aaron Judge.

The 28-year-old superstar Cal Raleigh has maintained his magnificent level of play in the postseason hitting a team-best .357 with 2 homers and 5 RBI across seven postseason games. He’s reached base in all 7 of Seattle’s postseason games, and hit safely in 6 of 7. Veteran second baseman Jorge Polanco is also compiling a terrific postseason for Seattle hitting .258 with 3 homers and 8 RBI in 7 games.

THE PICK: BLUE JAYS (Moneyline)

Toronto has had too good of a season to go down 0-3 in this series. I expect Vlad Guerrero Jr. break out of his slump which will allow the Blue Jays to redeem themselves briefly and win Game 3 tonight. Seattle will still take the series, though. Take the Blue Jays on the Moneyline tonight!