MLB Picks 9/23 – Tigers @ Guardians

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

With just five days remaining in regular season, the American League Central Division’s top two teams begin a crucial three-game set tonight as the first-place Detroit Tigers (85-71) visit the second-place Cleveland Guardians (84-72) at Progressive Field on MLB.TV. Cleveland is 6-4 against Detroit this season. The last two series matchups between the teams ended with the road team picking up three-game sweeps. Detroit swept Cleveland at Progressive Field from July 4-6, while Cleveland swept Detroit at Comerica Park one week ago from September 16-18.

There will be a lot on the line in this series as the winner will likely win the AL Central and earn the No. 3 seed in the playoffs, while the loser could miss the postseason entirely. Missing the postseason would be a big disappointment for either team since they qualified for the playoffs last year and entered the 2025 season with high expectations.

Both teams had the day off yesterday.

The reeling Detroit Tigers lost 6-2 against the Atlanta Braves at home on Sunday. The Braves completed a three-game sweep of the Tigers. Gleyber Torres and Riley Greene each collected two hits and drove in a run for Detroit. The Tigers went 0-6 on their homestand against Atlanta and Cleveland. They’ve lost nine of their last ten contests which has allowed Cleveland to pull within one game in the standings.

Cleveland is coming of a 6-2 loss on the road against the Minnesota Twins on Sunday. The loss snapped Cleveland’s season-high ten-game winning streak. Minnesota broke open a close game by scoring five runs over the sixth and seventh innings to take a 6-2 lead. The Guardians scored both of their runs in the first inning. Steven Kwan led off the game with his 11th homer of the season. Bo Naylor’s sacrifice fly provided the second run. Naylor has an RBI in six straight games.

Tonight’s starting pitchers are reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal (13-5, 2.23 ERA, 233 strikeouts in 30 starts) for Detroit and Gavin Williams (11-5, 3.06 ERA, 161 strikeouts in 30 starts) for Cleveland.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Detroit (-158),  Cleveland (+128)

Run Line: Detroit -1.5 (+118),  Cleveland +1.5 (-144)

Run Total: over 6.5 (-112),  under 6.5 (-111)

GAME STORYLINES: DETROIT

Prior to the 2024 season, the Detroit Tigers endured seven straight losing seasons from 2017-2023. They were well on their way to number eight as they stood at 55-63 on Aug. 10. But a stunning 31-13 surge to end the 2024 regular season allowed them to finish 86-76 and secure the final Wild Card spot. It was their first playoff birth since 2014. Detroit went on to upset the heavily-favored Houston Astros in the opening (Wild Card) round of the playoffs 2-0 before falling to the Cleveland Guardians 3-2 in the Divisional Round.

Detroit’s unexpected turnaround last season was ignited by the phenomenal pitching from tonight’s starting pitcher Tarik Skubal. The then-27-year-old, southpaw experienced a breakout season amassing an 18-4 record with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 31 starts. Skubal won the 2024 AL Cy Young Award. He also achieved the rare Triple Crown by leading the American League in wins (18), ERA (2.39) and strikeouts (228).

Tarik Skubal has continued his dominant ways in 2025 as he enters tonight’s contest with a 13-5 record, a 2.23 ERA and 233:30 K:BB across 30 starts. Skubal’s ERA and strikeouts ranks second in MLB. He is an overwhelming favorite (-20000) to win the 2025 American League Cy Young Award. When Skubal wins the award, he’ll be the first player to take home back-to-back Cy Young Awards since Jacob deGrom in 2018 and 2019. 

The Tigers were able to ride the wave of last season’s tremendous success into 2025 for most of the year. Detroit maintained one of the better records in MLB peaking at 59-34 on July 8 and 78-53 on Aug. 23. Detroit led Cleveland by 15.5 games on July 8, by 12.5 games on Aug. 25 and 8.5 games on Sept. 11. But Detroit has now lost six in a row and are a dismal 5-18 since Aug. 23. The Tigers once insurmountable lead over Cleveland is down to just one game.

Despite the struggles over the past month as a team, left fielder Riley Greene emerged as a superstar this season in year four. The 24-year-old lefty is hitting .259 with 34 homers, 109 RBI and 31 doubles across 152 games. He’s set career-highs in RBI, homers, hits and doubles, and was named an All-Star for the second straight season. Greene entered MLB with tremendous expectations after Detroit selected him fifth overall in the 2019 MLB draft out of high school. He’s quickly established himself as a star in MLB. 

The trio of first baseman Spencer Torkelson (.243, 31 HR, 78 RBI, 27 doubles in 150 gms), right fielder Kerry Carpenter (.255, 26 HR, 62 RBI, 18 doubles in 125 gms) and second baseman Gleyber Torres (.261, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 22 doubles in 140 gms) also registered outstanding seasons at the plate for Detroit. Torkelson needs one more homer to surpass his career-high which he set in 2023. The Tigers selected Torkelson with the No. 1 overall pick in 2020. 

GAME STORYLINES: CLEVELAND

After an uncharacteristic 76-86 record in 2023, the Cleveland Guardians bounced back to finish 92-69 last season and advanced to the ALCS. It was their first appearance in the ALCS since 2016 — when they advanced to the World Series. The Guardians have finished first or second in the AL Central division in 8 of the last 9 seasons, winning the division five times. 

It appeared as if the Guardians were heading for a rare futile season after an 8-game losing streak in early July dropped them to a season-low eight games below .500 at 40-48 on July 6. They were able to scratch their way back to the .500 mark by late July but were unable to propel themselves more than a few games above .500. The Guardians teetered at the .500 mark until Sep. 3. Since then, they’ve gone 15-3 and have a real shot at pulling off a comeback for the ages by stealing the AL Central division crown from Detroit. 

At the plate, superstar third baseman Jose Ramirez continues to produce at a high level again this season. The 33-year-old, seven-time All-Star is batting .282 with 30 homers, 81 RBI, 40 stolen bases and 31 doubles in 152 games. Ramirez leads the Guardians in RBI, homers, steals, doubles and triples. He will lead Cleveland in homers for a sixth straight season. He was named an All-Star for the fifth straight time this year. Ramirez has spent his entire 13-year MLB career with Cleveland. 

Emerging, second-year first baseman Kyle Manzardo (.236, 26 HR, 68 RBI in 136 gms), All-Star outfielder Steven Kwan (.276, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 28 doubles, 21 steals in 150 gms) and catcher Bo Naylor (.194, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 20 steals in 118 gms) are standouts in the Guardians lineup alongside Jose Ramirez. The 28-year-old Kwan was named an All-Star for the second time in his four-year MLB career this season. He was also selected as an All-Star last year in 2024.

The Guardians acquired Kyle Manzado as a minor-leaguer for star pitcher Aaron Civale in July 2023. The expectation for Manzardo was he would become a valuable power hitter for Cleveland in the future. Less than two years later, the Guardians hopes for Manzardo has come to fruition as he quickly developed into a very good power hitter in 2025 at just 25-year-old. 

Cleveland’s pitching staff remains one of MLB’s best. The Guardians 3.71 ERA ranks fourth in MLB and their 16 shutouts is tied for third. Third-year star pitcher Gavin Williams takes the mound tonight for Cleveland. The Indians/Guardians  selected Williams in the first round (No. 23) of the 2021 MLB Draft. After a so-so first two years due to inexperience and injury, the 26-year-old Williams registered a breakout 2025 season. He enters tonight’s contest with an 11-5 record, a team-leading 3.06 ERA and 161:81 K:BB across 30 starts. 

The young starting trio of Tanner Bibee (11-11, 4.34 ERA, 157 strikeouts in 30 starts), Logan Allen (7-8, 4.14 ERA, 118 strikeouts in 28 starts, 1 relief appearance) and Slade Cecconi (7-6, 4.15 ERA, 106 strikeouts in 22 starts) had solid seasons in 2025 alongside Gavin Williams. All three guys were excellent over the past several weeks during the Guardians hot streak.  

THE PICK: GUARDIANS (Moneyline)

Detroit is in the midst of possibly one of the biggest collapses in MLB history and I think it continues tonight. I expect the Guardians emerging star pitcher Gavin Williams to outduel reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal here and the Guardians to move into a first-place tie with the Tigers. Take the Guardians on the moneyline!