NFL Picks 9/15 – Tampa Bay Bucs @ Houston Texans

By Thomas Quaynor For Wannamakeabet.com

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) visit the Houston Texans (0-1) at NRG Stadium on Monday Night Football on ABC/ESPN. The teams last meeting occurred two seasons ago with Houston picking up a last-second 39-37 victory over visiting Tampa Bay in an epic shootout on Nov. 5, 2023. 

Down 37-33 with less than a minute left in the game, Texans quarterback CJ Stroud drove Houston 75 yards and threw a game-winning, five-yard touchdown pass to Tank Dell with 6 seconds remaining to secure the win. Stroud threw for five touchdowns and passed for an NFL rookie-record 470 yards in the win. 

Houston is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 42.5.

Tampa Bay opened the season with a 23-20 comeback win in Atlanta last Sunday. Baker Mayfield’s 25-yard touchdown pass to rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka with 59 seconds left in the game proved to be the winning margin for Tampa Bay. Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo missed a 44-yard field goal as time expired which would have forced overtime. Mayfield completed 17 of 32 passes for 167 yards with three touchdown and no interceptions. The rookie Egbuka caught four passes for a team-high 67 yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut.   

Houston lost 14-9 at the Los Angeles Rams in their season opener last Sunday. Houston could only muster three first-half field goals in a chippy defensive battle. Texans linebacker Henry To’o To’o delivered punishing tackles to Rams wideouts Davante Adams (upper-body) and Puka Nacua (head) in the first quarter which set the tone for an extremely physical game. 

CJ Stroud completed 19 of 27 passes for 188 yards, no touchdowns and one interception while adding 5 carries for 32 yards in the Week 1 loss. Newly acquired running back Nick Chubb carried the ball 13 times for 60 yards in his debut with the Texans. The former All-Pro running back was the Texans lead back in the opener. 

GAME STORYLINES: TAMPA BAY

On March 20, 2020, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed then-42-year-old, six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Tom Brady to a two-year, $50 million contract. The addition of Brady worked out perfectly for the Buccaneers as they went on to win the Super Bowl in Brady’s first season with the team, crushing the Kansas City Chiefs 31-9 in Super Bowl LV (55). 

Tom Brady played two more seasons with Tampa Bay before retiring after the 2022 season. Brady led Tampa Bay to back-to-back division titles. Tampa Bay had never won consecutive division titles in its franchise history prior to Brady’s arrival. 

Tampa Bay replaced Tom Brady with quarterback Baker Mayfield for the 2023 season. Mayfield entered the NFL with tremendous expectations after being selected No. 1 overall by the Cleveland Browns in 2018. He was considered a bust due to four up-and-down seasons with Cleveland followed by two unsuccessful stints with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams in the 2022 season. 

After spending the first five years of his career mosty struggling with three different teams, Baker Mayfield resurrected his career with Tampa Bay and has become one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. In his first season with Tampa, Mayfield posted career highs in passing yards (4,044), touchdowns (28) and completion percentage (64.3) while leading them to a 9-8 record and a third straight NFC South division crown. The fourth-seeded Bucs went on to crush the fifth-seeded Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 in the opening round of the playoffs before falling to third-seeded Detroit 31-23 in the second (divisional) round. 

Baker Mayfield’s tremendous play in his debut season with the Buccaneers earned him a three-year, $100 million extension from the team in March 2024. Mayfield rewarded the Bucs with an even better season last year throwing for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdown to 16 interceptions while completing 71.4 percent of his passes. He led the Bucs to a 10-7 record and a fourth straight NFC South division title. 

Tampa Bay entered the 2025 season as a -175 favorite to take home the NFC South division crown for a fifth straight year. 

In addition to Baker Mayfield’s excellence, Tampa Bay also returns outstanding stalwart wideout Mike Evans (1,004 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns last year) and speedy second-year running back Bucky Irving (1,122 rushing yards, 392 receiving yards, 8 rushing touchdown last year). Last year, the 32-year-old Evans tied an NFL-record for most consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start a career with 11. He tied the record that was held by Hall of Famer Jerry Rice. 

Tampa Bay’s rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka will be thrust into a large role this season as star wide receiver Chris Godwin starts the season on the injured list after dislocating his ankle in Week 7 last year. The Bucs selected the Ohio State product 19th overall in the first round of the 2025 NFL draft. He holds the Ohio State record for career receptions (205) and has the second-most career receiving yards with 2,868. Egbuka finished with a team-high 67 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut last week at Atlanta. 

 

GAME STORYLINES: HOUSTON

Through the first 15 weeks of the 2022 season, the Houston Texans sat at 1-12-1 and were well on their way to securing the No. 1 overall pick and selecting highly-regarded Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. The Texans appeared to have sabotaged themselves by winning two of their last three games to finish 3-13-1 and getting the 2nd pick. The Texans nabbed Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud with the No. 2 pick instead of Bryce Young. 

In an unexpected turn of events, CJ Stroud ended up having a magnificent rookie year while Bryce Young struggled with Carolina. Stroud passed for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdown to 5 interceptions while completing 63.9 percent of his passes across 15 games. He led the Texans a 10-7 record and an AFC South division title. It was the Texans most wins and first division title since 2019. Stroud was named the NFL’s 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

CJ Stroud’s production went down a bit last season as a slew of injuries to his star players on the offense (Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell) left Stroud running for his life and forcing bad throws in several games. Despite the injury woes on offense in 2024, the Texans still finished with an identical 10-7 record and won the AFC South division for a second straight year. They hammered the 5th-seeded Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 in the opening round of the playoffs before falling to the top-seeded Chiefs 23-14 in the divisional round.  

Houston enters the 2025 season as a slight favorite (+175 over Jacksonville at +185) to win the AFC South division for a third straight year. The offense still remains a question mark as Stefon Diggs left as a free agent while Joe Mixon (ankle) and Tank Dell (knee) began the year on the reserve/PUP list meaning they’ll miss the first four weeks of the year at minimum. Its possible both players could miss the entire 2025 season. 

Houston added former All-Pro running back Nick Chubb (free agent) and wide receiver Christian Kirk (trade) in the offseason to compensate for the injuries and offseason defections.  Chubb is on a one-year deal, while Kirk is in the final year of a four-year, $72 million contract. Both players should be motivated to play hard in order to earn another big pay day. Chubb was solid in his Texans debut against the Rams (13 carries for 60 yards), while Kirk missed the season opener with a strained hamstring. Kirk is considered questionable for Monday night’s game against Tampa Bay.

The Texans terrific defense more than made up for the struggles of the offense in 2024. Houston ended the 2024 season tied for second in interceptions (19), ranked fourth in sacks (49) and ranked sixth overall in defense. The returning trio of All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (54 tackles, 5 interceptions in 17 gms last season), along with defensive ends Danielle Hunter (46 tackles, 12 sacks, 1 forced fumble in 17 gms last year) and Will Anderson Jr. (37 tackles, 11 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery in 14 gms last year) were the standouts on the Texans dominant defense in 2024.

The Texans defense began the 2025 season with another strong performance in Week 1 at the Los Angeles Rams — giving up just 14 points — but the offense sputtered again for most of the game as they were unable to score a touchdown in the 14-9 loss. CJ Stroud and the offense needs to find a way to rectify their issues as the lack of production could cause a rift between the offense and defense at some point in the season.

THE PICK: TEXANS (-2.5)

Despite the offensive woes and injuries on offense, I think the defense produces another dominant effort and the Texans give an inspired effort in the home opener on Monday Night football and get the win here. Lay the Points…Texans 24, Buccaneers 16