MLB Picks 8/29 – Tigers @ Royals

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The top two teams in the American League Central division begin a three-game weekend set tonight as the first-place Detroit Tigers (78-57) visit the second-place Kansas City Royals (69-65) on MLB.TV. This will be the final regular season series meeting between teams. Detroit has dominated Kansas City this year going 7-3 against them. The teams matched up exactly one week ago with the Tigers taking two of three from the visiting Royals.

Both teams had the day off yesterday.

Detroit was blanked 7-0 on the road against the Athletics in their previous game on Wednesday. The much-improved Athletics completed a three-game sweep of the Tigers. The A’s 22-year-old star rookie pitcher Luis Morales dominated Detroit striking out seven over seven innings. Detroit could only muster two hits in the loss. The Tigers have now lost four in a row.

Kansas City is coming off a 12-1 rout of the lowly White Sox in Chicago on Wednesday. Mike Yastrzemski and Salvador Perez each homered and drove in three runs for the Royals. Kansas City posted 16 hits in the decisive victory. Rookie Ryan Bergert (2-1) pitched a season-high six innings allowing one run and striking out three. The Royals took two of three from the White Sox in the series. Tonight’s contest begins a nine-game homestand for the Royals. 

Tonight’s starting pitchers are Chris Paddack (5-11, 4.98 ERA, 97 strikeouts in 26 starts) for Detroit and Seth Lugo (8-6, 3.99 ERA, 120 strikeouts in 25 starts) for Kansas City. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Detroit (+101),  Kansas City (-123)

Run Line: Detroit +1.5 (-200),  Kansas City -1.5 (+158)

Run Total: over 9 (-101),  under 9 (-121)

GAME STORYLINES: DETROIT

Last season, the Detroit Tigers made a stunning late-season turnaround to finish 86-76 and claim the final Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Detroit ended the 2024 regular season on a 31-13 spurt. It was their first winning season since 2016 (86-75) and their first postseason appearance since 2014. The sixth-seeded Tigers went on to upset the third-seeded Houston Astros 2-0 in the opening round of the playoffs before falling to the second-seeded Cleveland Guardians in a hard-fought divisional round series that went the full five games. 

Detroit’s unexpected success in 2024 was ignited by the stellar pitching of ace Tarik Skubal. The then-27-year-old lefty experienced a breakout season compiling an 18-4 record with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 31 starts. He won the 2024 American League Cy Young Award. Skubal also pulled off the rare pitching Triple Crown by leading the AL in wins, ERA and strikeouts. 

Detroit rode the momentum of last season’s tremendous success into the 2025 campaign as they owned best record in MLB and maintained a sizable lead atop the American League Central division for much of the year. Kansas City could make the division race interesting with a three-game sweep of Detroit starting tonight. If Detroit can fend off the second-place Royals, they’ll win the AL Central for the first time since 2014.

The phenomenal pitching of superstar ace Tarik Skubal is fueling the Tigers again this season. The 28-year-old southpaw is currently 11-4 with a 2.28 ERA and an MLB-leading 228 strikeouts in 26 starts. He’s a -150 favorite to win the 2025 AL Cy Young Award. Fellow starting pitcher Casey Mize (12-5, 3.95 ERA, 107:32 K:BB in 23 starts) is experiencing a similar breakout season as Skubal did in 2024. Detroit selected the 28-year-old Mize No. 1 overall in the 2018 MLB draft. 

At the plate, left fielder Riley Greene has emerged as a superstar in his fourth season. The 24-year-old lefty is batting .266 with 32 homers, 99 RBI and 26 doubles across 131 games. He’s already established career-highs in homers and RBI. Greene was named an All-Star for the second straight season. Detroit selected Greene fifth overall in the 2019 MLB draft out of high school, and he’s quickly established himself as an impact player in the majors. 

The trio of power-hitting first baseman Spencer Torkelson (.240, 28 HR, 70 RBI, 25 doubles in 129 gms), right fielder Kerry Carpenter (.261, 22 HR, 50 RBI in 105 gms) and second baseman Gleybor Torres (.259, 14 HR, 61 RBI in 119 gms) are producing tremendous seasons in a deep Tigers lineup. The Tigers selected Torkelson with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft. He needs four homers to surpass his career-high of 31, which he set in 2023.

GAME STORYLINES: KANSAS CITY

Much like tonight’s opponent, the Kansas City Royals also came out of nowhere in 2024 to make the postseason for the first time in years and won a round in the postseason. Kansas City finished 86-76 last year — the same record as Detroit — and secured the second Wild Card spot (the No. 5 seed). The 86 wins was a 30-game improvement over 2023, and their first postseason bid since 2015 when they won the World Series. 

The key to last season’s miraculous 30-game turnaround was the tremendous production from the trio of All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.332, 32 HR, 109 RBI in 2024), first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (19 HR, 97 RBI in 2024), and 35-year-old, 15-year veteran Salvador Perez (.271, 27 HR, 104 RBI) at the plate, along with a terrific pitching staff that finished in the top 10 in ERA, shut outs and quality starts.

Unfortunately, Kansas City has been unable to duplicate last season’s success for much of the 2025 campaign. They’ve spent the overwhelming majority of the season struggling to stay above .500 due to a dip in offensive production. The Royals have been playing better of late going 11-5 since Aug. 11 and have a chance to deter Detroit’s season-long cakewalk to the AL Central division crown if they can sweep the Tigers. 

After a breakout season last year, 27-year-old first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is emerging as a superstar in 2025. The fourth-year south paw is batting .262 with 28 homers, 94 RBI and 22 doubles in 132 games. He leads the team in homers and RBI. Pasquantino recently went on a remarkable power surge where he homered in five straight games from August 18-22, tying a Royals franchise record.

The trio of veteran stalwart catcher Salvador Perez (.246, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 32 doubles in 127 gms), five-tool superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.298, 19 HR, 74 RBI, 41 doubles, 34 steals in 132 gms) and third-year third baseman Maikel Garcia (.297, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 32 doubles, 22 steals in 132 gms) are registering terrific seasons alongside Vinny Pasquantino. The 35-year-old Perez continues to produce at a high level in his 15th MLB season — all with Kansas City. Witt Jr. and Garcia were selected as All-Stars this season.

Kansas City was dealt a tough blow when All-Star starting pitcher Kris Bubic was lost for the season after suffering a strain in his left rotator cuff during a start against Cleveland on July 26. The 28-year-old lefty was in the midst of a breakout season before the injury posting an 8-7 record with a 2.55 ERA and 116:39 K:BB in 20 starts. Bubic was selected as an All-Star for the first time in his five-year career this year.

THE PICK: ROYALS (Run Line)

I like the Royals to pick up a win here as they return home to face a Detroit team that could be somewhat wobbly after being swept by the Athletics in Sacramento. The Tigers have also lost four in a row. Take the Royals on the run line!