MLB Picks 8/27 – Padres at Mariners

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The San Diego Padres (75-58) conclude a three-game series on the road against the Seattle Mariners (71-62) today on MLB Network. The teams split the first two games of the series with Seattle winning the opener 9-6, and San Diego holding on for a 7-6 victory last night. This is the final regular season series matchup and last individual meeting between the teams. Seattle has dominated San Diego this year winning four of five against them. Last night’s victory was San Diego first against Seattle this year. 

Seattle took the opener 9-6. Cal Raleigh hit his MLB-leading 50th homer in the first inning for Seattle. Jorge Polanco also homered and drove in four runs in the win. Seattle broke the game open by scoring five runs in the fifth inning to take an 8-4 lead. Four San Diego players — Gavin Sheets, Jake Croneworth, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Ramon Laureano — homered in the loss.

San Diego escaped with a 7-6 victory last night. The Padres scored five runs in the first inning. Ramon Laureano’s grand slam sparked San Diego’s opening frame outburst. He finished 2-for-4 and scored twice. Laureano has homered in both games of this series. Manny Machado, Ryan O’Hearn and Jake Croneworth registered two hits apiece for the Padres. 

Seattle rallied to take a 6-5 lead in the fifth inning thanks to a pair of three-run homers from Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez. The Mariners never scored again after their fifth inning explosion. Four San Diego relievers held them scoreless over the final four innings. 

Both teams are in a similar position of trying to unseat a perennial power atop their respective divisions. San Diego currently sits one game behind the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers who have won the National League West division 11 times over the last 12 seasons. While Seattle is currently 1.5 games behind the Houston Astros who have won seven straight American League West division crowns.

Today’s starting pitchers are Yu Darvish (3-3, 5.36 ERA, 39 strikeouts in 9 starts) for San Diego and All-Star Bryan Woo (11-7, 2.94 ERA, 160 strikeouts in 25 starts) for Seattle.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: San Diego (+114),  Seattle (-138)

Run Line: San Diego +1.5 (-194),  Seattle -1.5 (+153)

Run Total: over 8 (-102),  under 8 (-116)

GAME STORYLINES: SAN DIEGO

After missing the postseason for 12 straight seasons (2007-2018) and watching the Los Angeles Dodgers dominate the National League West division every year by spending lots of money, the San Diego Padres decided to follow suit. In February 2019, the San Diego Padres signed superstar third baseman Manny Machado to a monumental 10-year, $300 million contract. It was the largest contract in American sports history at the time.

The signing of Manny Machado signaled a significant change in the team’s culture as the Padres went from division doormats to making the postseason in three of the last five seasons. Included in those postseason bids was a trip to the 2023 NLCS, and a 93-69 finish last year — its most wins since going 98-64 and advancing to the World Series in 1998. The Padres only made 3 postseason appearances over the previous 20 seasons (1998-2018) prior to signing Machado.

San Diego entered the 2025 season with pretty high expectations after winning 93 games in 2024. They immediately fulfilled those expectations by getting off to a red-hot 7-0 start. The Padres were 14-3 on April 14. It seemed like San Diego was primed to end the Los Angeles Dodgers reign as NL West champs. 

A couple subpar stretches in May and June dropped the Padres to 40-35 on June 21. They found themselves 9 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers on July 4. San Diego then caught fire in late July, winning six in a row and 14 of 17 which allowed them to leapfrog the Dodgers for first place in the division on Aug. 13. They’ve been in a nip-and-tuck battle for first place with the Dodgers ever since. 

The aforementioned Manny Machado continues to produce at a high level for San Diego in his 14th MLB season. The 33-year-old, 7-time All-Star is batting .290 with 21 homers, 78 RBI, 32 doubles and 12 steals in 133 games. He leads the team in batting average, homers, doubles and RBI. Machado was selected as a starter in this year’s All-Star game. It was his first appearance since 2022 and fourth as a starter. 

The trio of star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (.263, 18 HR, 54 RBI, 26 doubles, 25 steals in 130 gms), left fielder Gavin Sheets (.259, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 21 doubles in 117 gms) and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (.262, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 29 doubles, 21 steals in 130 gms) are also standouts in a deep and potent lineup. The 26-year-old Tatis was named an All-Star for the third time in his young career. The 29-year-old Sheets will set career-highs in batting average, homers, doubles and RBI in his first season with the Padres. He spent the first four years of his MLB career with the Chicago White Sox.

GAME STORYLINES: SEATTLE

In 2022, the Seattle Mariners finished 90-72 and made the postseason for the first time since 2001. The 21-year playoff drought was one of the longest in the history of North American team sports. The sensational play of then-21-year-old rookie center fielder Julio Rodriguez ignited Seattle’s run to the playoffs. He hit .282 with 28 homers and 75 RBI en route to being named the 2022 American League Rookie of the Year. Rodriguez was also selected as an All-Star in his rookie year. 

Unfortunately, Seattle has come up just short of making the postseason since 2022 finishing 88-74 in 2023, and 84-78 last year. Inconsistent pitching and a slight regression in production from Julio Rodriguez last year caused the 2-year reduction in wins. Last season, the Mariners blew a 10-game lead in mid-June and allowed the Houston Astros to win the division for a seventh straight year.

While Julio Rodriguez was getting a lot of the individual accolades due to his rapid rise to stardom, power-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh was quietly one of Seattle’s most productive hitters over the past 3 seasons. The 28-year-old slugger increased his homer total in each of his first 3 full seasons in the majors — hitting 27 homers in 2022, 30 in 2023 and 34 last year. He led the team in homers and RBI last season.

Many could foresee that star catcher Cal Raleigh would likely increase his production for a fourth straight season in 2025 but nobody could have forecasted the extraordinary year he’s now producing. The “Big Dumper” is amassing a historic season at the plate batting .245 with an MLB-leading 50 homers, 107 RBI, 19 doubles and 14 steals across 130 games. He’s going to lead Seattle in homers and RBI for a second straight season.

Cal Raleigh’s historic feats this season include, breaking the record for most homers by a catcher which was 48. He is the first catcher in MLB history to hit at least 50 homers in a season. He became the eighth player in MLB history to total 50 homers before September.  Raleigh also has a shot to break the franchise-record for homers (56) set by Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997 and 1998. Raleigh was selected as a starter in this year’s All-Star game. It was his first All-Star game nod.

The power-hitting trio of center fielder Julio Rodriguez (.261, 25 HR, 73 RBI, 24 doubles, 23 steals in 132 gms), left fielder Randy Arozarena (.239, 25 HR, 64 RBI, 26 doubles, 24 steals in 131 gms) and second baseman Jorge Polanco (.252, 20 HR, 59 RBI, 16 doubles in 111 gms) are registering outstanding seasons for Seattle. Rodriguez and Arozarena were selected as All-Stars this year. It was the third All-Star nod for the 24-year-old Rodriguez, and second for Arozarena.

Seattle added superstar slugger Eugenio Suarez from the Arizona Diamondacks in a blockbuster trade on July 31. The 34-year-old Suarez was among the MLB leaders in homers and RBI (36 HR, 87 RBI) at the time of the trade, and was the most coveted bat for contending teams prior to the trade deadline. He’s hitting .171 with 5 homers and 14 RBI in 24 games with the Mariners. 

The trade deadline acquisition of Eugenio Suarez marks a return home for the 34-year-old slugger. He played two seasons for Seattle in 2022 and 2023. He was a key player for the 2022 team that made the postseason and broke the 21-year postseason drought. 

The red-hot Bryan Woo takes the mound tonight for Seattle. The 25-year-old right-hander has emerged as Seattle’s ace this season in year three. He enters tonight’s contest with an 11-7 record, a 2.83 ERA and 160:30 K:BB in 25 starts. Woo is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 33 strikeouts across 4 starts in August. He was selected as an All-Star for the first time in his career this season. 

 

THE PICK: MARINERS (Moneyline)

I think the Mariners bounce back this afternoon with their ace Bryan Woo taking the mound. Woo has been excellent this month and I expect his dominance continues today against San Diego. Take the Mariners on the Moneyline.