MLB Picks 8/18 – Blue Jays at Pirates

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays (73-52) open a three-game series on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates (52-73) tonight at PNC Park. This is the only meeting of the season between the teams. The Blue Jays have dominated the Pirates of late winning 10 of the last 11 matchups dating back to 2017. Toronto has also won seven in a row at Pittsburgh dating back to 2014.

Toronto is coming off a 10-4 loss against Texas at home on Sunday. The loss prevented a three-game sweep for Toronto. Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (9-5) gave up six earned runs to Texas which matched a season-high. Texas totaled four homers in the game. George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk each homered for Toronto. 

The reeling Pittsburgh Pirates lost 4-3 against the Cubs in Chicago yesterday. The Pirates dropped two of three in the weekend set at Wrigley Field. Dansby Swanson’s tiebreaking sacrifice fly in the eighth inning proved to be the winning run for the Cubs. Bryan Reynolds and Nick Gonzales each collected two hits for Pittsburgh in the loss. The Pirates have lost 7 of their last 8 games.

Tonight’s starters are Kevin Gausman (8-9, 3.79 ERA, 138 strikeouts in 24 starts) for Toronto and All-Star Paul Skenes (7-9, MLB-leading  2.13 ERA, 166 strikeouts in 25 starts) for Pittsburgh.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Toronto (-108),   Pittsburgh (-112)

Run Line: Toronto -1.5 (+157),   Pittsburgh +1.5 (-193)

Run Total: over 7 (-115),   under 7 (-108)

GAME STORYLINES: TORONTO

After averaging 90 wins from 2021-2023 and making back-to-back postseason appearances in 2022 and 2023, the Toronto Blue Jays dropped to 74-88 last season in 2024. Recurring injuries to key hitters, a glaring lack of power production outside of Vlad Guerrero Jr. and inconsistent starting pitching doomed the Blue Jays last season. Two-time All-Star Bo Bichette missed 81 games due to a right calf strain and fractured middle finger, while catcher Alejandro Kirk missed 59 contests.

Prior to the season, Toronto signed star slugger Anthony Santander to a 5-year, $92.5 million contract in January. The 30-year-old Santander was coming off a career-year with the Baltimore Orioles where he finished with 44 homers and 102 RBI. He led Baltimore in homers and RBI in each of the last 3 seasons. 

Unfortunately, Anthony Santander’s debut season with Toronto has been marred by injury. He’s missed most of the season with left shoulder inflammation. Santander is currently on the 60-day injured list and has not played since May 30. He was hitting .179 with 6 homers and 18 RBI in 50 games prior to the injury. Santander is expected to be out for the rest of August, the team is hopeful he can return in September. 

In an odd twist, the Blue Jays turned their season around and became a juggernaut around the same time Anthony Santander went on the injured list. Toronto was 26-28 on May 28 and appeared to be heading towards a second straight losing season. They caught fire in late-May and have not looked back. 

Toronto has gone 47-24 since May 28. A 12-2 spurt from May 28-June 11 and a 10-game winning streak from June 29-July 11 ignited the Blue Jays turnaround. Included in that 10-game winning streak was a four-game sweep of the then-AL East division-leading New York Yankees. Toronto leapfrogged New York for first place after the sweep and they’ve remained in first place ever since. The Blue Jays currently hold a 5-game lead over second-place Boston in the AL East. New York is now in third place and 5.5 games behind Toronto. 

Toronto’s ascension to first place in the American League East and the AL’s second-best record is spearheaded by one of the top offenses in MLB. The mainstay, star duo of Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.300, 21 HR, 68 RBI, 30 doubles in 123 gms) and Bo Bichette (.297, 16 HR, 81 RBI, 37 doubles in 122 gms) continue to lead the offense again in 2025. They’ve been among the top hitters for the Blue Jays since 2020. Guerrero Jr. was selected as an All-Star for the fifth straight season. Bichette’s availability in 2025 is a big reason for Toronto’s tremendous season.

Veteran outfielder George Springer (.290, 19 HR, 59 RBI, 18 doubles, 12 steals in 103 gms), emerging second-year third baseman Addison Barger (.261, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 25 doubles in 101 gms), slugging outfielder Daulton Varsho (.242, 13 HR, 34 RBI in 37 gms) and catcher Alejandro Kirk (.292, 9 HR, 53 RBI in 100 gms) are also standouts in a deep and talented Blue Jays lineup. 

Dalton Varsho missed about 2 months (the entirety of June and July) with a left hamstring strain, but has been highly productive when healthy. The 25-year-old Addison Barger is experiencing a breakout season year two and has superstar potential. The 26-year-old Kirk was selected as an All-Star this year for the first time in his young career. Kirk remaining relatively healthy in 2025 is also a contributing factor in Toronto’s turnarond this year.  

GAME STORYLINES: PITTSBURGH

On December 6, 1992, Pittsburgh Pirates superstar slugger Barry Bonds departed as a free agent and signed with San Francisco Giants. From that point on, the once-proud Pittsburgh Pirates franchise became dormant. Bonds led the Pirates to three straight division crowns and three straight NLCS appearances from 1990-1992 — back when only four teams made the postseason. 

In the 32 full seasons since 1992, the Pirates have made just 3 postseason appearances (2012-2014). Barring a miracle, the Pirates will miss the postseason for the 30th time over the last 33 seasons this year. This will also be the Pirates seventh consecutive losing season. 

It seemed as if the Pirates three decades of despair would soon come to an end when they secured the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft and selected highly-touted LSU starting pitcher Paul Skenes. The 6-foot-6 Skenes was one of the most hyped prospects in the history of the MLB draft after completing a phenomenal 2023 season at LSU. Skenes posted a 1.11 ERA with 42 strikeouts over 4 postseason starts in leading LSU to the College World Series title.

Not surprisingly, Paul Skenes dominated the minor leagues and joined the Pirates in a short period of time. He was called up from Triple-A Indianapolis on May 11, 2024 after spending just nine months in the minors. Skenes made his MLB debut at home against the Chicago Cubs on May 12, 2024, which was less than a year after the Pirates selected him with the No. 1 overall pick on July 9, 2023. Skenes struck out 7 and gave up 3 earned runs over 4 innings in his MLB debut. He picked up a no-decision. 

In two seasons with the Pirates, Paul Skenes has lived up to and exceeded the enormous hype that preceded his MLB debut. As a rookie, Skenes was exceptional posting an 11-3 record with a 1.96 ERA and 170:32 K:BB over 23 starts. He was named the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year and was selected to start in the 2024 All-Star game. Skenes became the first rookie to start the All-Star game since Hideo Nomo in 1995. He was the first Pirates pitcher to start the All-Star game since Jerry Reuss in 1975.

Paul Skenes is amassing another spectacular season in year two. He takes the mound tonight sporting a 7-9 record with an MLB-leading 2.13 ERA and 166:36 K:BB across 25 starts. Unfortunately, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense continues to be amongst the worst in MLB and its been a huge factor in Skenes subpar win-loss record. Skenes only receives 2.98 runs per game (per 9 innings) from the offense in his starts. Its the third-worst in MLB behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) and Michael Wacha (KC). 

With all the hype that Paul Skenes garnered prior to the draft, it has failed to translate into team success up to this point. Pittsburgh finished 76-86 in Skenes’ rookie year and they are on pace to finish with a considerably worse record this year as they enter tonight’s game at 52-73. 

Pittsburgh’s management could soon find themselves in a very difficult position with Paul Skenes because it doesn’t appear as if they are making a concerted effort to upgrade the talent around him. Will they try to get more talent on the team to build around Skenes? Will they gave Skenes an astronomical contract extension before he can become an unrestricted free agent in 2029? Or will they trade Skenes to a big-spending team (Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, etc.) and attempt another rebuild with the haul they would get back for him?

THE PICK: BLUE JAYS (Moneyline)

Games like this are always tough because you have a bad team who is the favorite over the much better team. Toronto has 21 more wins than Pittsburgh but find themselves as the underdog due to the greatness of Pirates ace Paul Skenes. I hate to go against Paul Skenes — especially when he’s pitching at home, but Toronto’s lineup is too deep to be shut down for an entire game on most nights. Take the Blue Jays on the moneyline here!