MLB Picks 8/15 – San Diego Padres @ LA Dodgers

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The top two teams in the National League West begin a three-game weekend set tonight as the first-place San Diego Padres (69-52) visit the reeling Los Angeles Dodgers (68-53) on MLB Network. This is the third series meeting and seventh individual matchup between the bitter rivals. Los Angeles is 5-2 against San Diego on the year. The previous seven meetings were all played in June, with the Dodgers winning two of three in San Diego and three of four in Los Angeles. The Dodgers and Padres will face off for a final time one week from today in a three-game weekend set at San Diego. 

Both teams did not play yesterday.

The San Diego Padres clobbered the San Francisco Giants 11-1 in their last game on Wednesday, completing a three-game sweep on the road. San Diego outscored San Francisco 20-3 over the three games. Trade deadline acquisition Ramon Laureano went 3-for-4 with a two-run homer, while Nick Pivetta (12-4) struck out five and allowed one earned run over 6.2 innings for the Padres. San Diego has won five in a row and seven of their last eight contests. 

The Dodgers dropped a 6-5 decision on the road against the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday and were swept by their crosstown rivals. Angels catcher Logan O’Happe’s two-run single in the eighth inning proved to be the winning runs for the home team. Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani delivered season-highs of seven strikeouts and 4.1 innings pitched for the Dodgers, but allowed 4 runs in the loss. The Dodgers lost all six games against the Angels this season.

Tonight’s starting pitchers are Randy Vasquez (3-5, 3.93 ERA, 55 strikeouts in 22 starts) for San Diego and future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 3.14 ERA, 46 strikeouts in 14 starts) for Los Angeles. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: San Diego (+156),  Los Angeles (-191)

Run Line: San Diego +1.5 (-127),  Los Angeles -1.5 (+104)

Run Total: over 9 (-122),  under 9 (+101)

GAME STORYLINES: SAN DIEGO

After missing the postseason for 12 consecutive seasons (2007-2018), the San Diego Padres made the decision to become big spenders in order to field a competitive team. The Padres first big move was signing superstar third baseman Manny Machado to a massive 10-year, $300 million deal in February 2019.

The signing of Manny Machado signaled a change in the franchise’s culture as the Padres have gone on to make three postseason appearances over six seasons since adding Machado in 2019. Included in those postseason bids was a trip to the 2023 NLCS, and a 93-69 finish last year. San Diego made just three postseason appearances over the previous 20 seasons (1999-2018) prior to inking Machado.

Expectations were high for San Diego entering the 2025 due to last season’s tremendous success — San Diego finished with its highest win total since 1998 when they went 98-64 and advanced to the World Series. The Padres got off to a terrific start, winning their first 7 games of the year and stood at 14-3 on April 14. It appeared as if San Diego was primed to dethrone the Dodgers as NL West division champs. 

A couple dismal stretches in May and June dropped the Padres to 40-35 on June 21. They found themselves 9 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers on July 4. But San Diego caught fire in late July — going 14-2 since July 26 — and leapfrogged the Dodgers for first place in the division. Excellent starting pitching, along with their usual strong hitting lineup. are the catalysts for the Padres overtaking the Dodgers.

The aforementioned Manny Machado continues to produce at an elite level in his 14th MLB season. The 33-year-old, 7-time All-Star is batting .296 with 20 homers, 72 RBI, 30 doubles and 11 steals across 121 games. He leads the team in batting average, homers, doubles and RBI. Machado was selected as a starter in this year’s All-Star game. His first selection since 2022, and fouth as a starter. 

Star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (.266, 17 HR, 49 RBI, 24 steals, 21 doubles in 118 gms), left fielder Gavin Sheets (.250, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 16 doubles in 107 gms) and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (.268, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 19 steals, 27 doubles in 119 gms) are also standouts in a deep and talented Padres batting lineup. The 26-year-old Tatis Jr. was named an All-Star for the third time in his young career. 

San Diego made several significant additions at the trade deadline which should bolster the team. They added closer Mason Miller and starter JP Sears from the Athletics, along with power hitters Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano from Baltimore and catcher Felix Fermin from Kansas City. With Baltimore, Laureano totaled 15 homers in 82 games while O’Hearn hit 14 homers in 104 games. Laureano has 10 RBI in 12 games with the Padres. 

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

Over the past 12 seasons (2013-2024), the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers established themselves as the kings of MLB making the postseason every year, winning the NL West division 11 times and capturing two World Series crowns (2020 and 2024). Los Angeles has finished with at least 90 wins in 11 consecutive seasons. Last year’s World Series title was their first after a full season since 1988. 

The Dodgers appeared to be cruising towards a fourth straight National League West title and 12th in 13 seasons when they were a season-best 24 games above .500 at 56-32 on July 3. But they went on a season-high 7-game losing streak  beginning on July 4, and they’ve endured a prolonged stretch of subpar play ever since. The Dodgers went from 9 games up on San Diego to one game behind them in the division entering tonight’s contest. 

Bullpen woes, injuries and some down years for star players at the plate are the main reasons for the Dodgers struggles of late. The Dodgers bullpen ranks among the bottom 10 in several statistical categories. Los Angeles added Twins reliever Brock Stewart at the trade deadline. The 33-year-old, hard-throwing righty had a 2.63 ERA with 41 strikeouts and 14 holds in 39 appearances with Minnesota.

Unfortunately, Brock Stewart made just four appearances with his new team before being placed on the 15-day IL with shoulder inflammation. The Dodgers are hopeful he can return later in the year. Stewart spent the first four years of his MLB career (2016-2019) with the Dodgers as a part-time starter.

Despite the recent struggles as a team, the incomparable, reigning National League MVP Shohei Ohtani is amassing another stellar season at the plate. Last year, Ohtani became the first player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases in a season. This year Ohtani is batting .284 with 43 homers, 79 homers, 17 steals, 16 doubles and 8 triples in 119 games. Ohtani is an overwhelming favorite (-20000) to win the 2025 National League MVP award. He’ll become the first repeat NL MVP winner since Albert Pujols did it for St. Louis in 2008 and 2009. 

Shohei Ohtani returned to the mound this season for the first time since August 2023. Ohtani underwent surgery for a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow during his final season with the Los Angeles Angels in September 2023. The procedure limited him to just hitting last year with the Dodgers. 

Shohei Ohtani has started 9 games and owns a 3.47 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 5 walks over 23.1 innings. The Dodgers gave Ohtani a light workload over his first 6 starts but are now increasing his workload as the playoffs approach. He pitched a season-high 4.1 innings on Wednesday against the Angels.

Emerging outfielder Andy Pages (.278, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 20 doubles, 11 steals in 117 gms), star first baseman Freddie Freeman (.300, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 29 doubles in 109 gms), right fielder Teoscar Hernandez (.256, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 23 doubles in 98 gms) and catcher Will Smith (.312, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 19 doubles in 94 gms) are producing fantastic seasons alongside Shohei Ohtani in a prolific Dodgers lineup. The 24-year-old Pages is having a breakout season in year two. 

THE PICK: DODGERS (Run Line)

Despite the struggles of late, I think the Dodgers bounce back from the embarrassing three-game sweep they suffered on the road against the sub-.500 Los Angeles Angels and knock off their crosstown rivals. The Dodgers have 37-year-old, future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw on the mound tonight and he’s been terrific over his last two starts. Take the Dodgers on the Moneyline!