NBA Playoff Picks 4/28 – Cavs @ Heat

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs continues tonight with the No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18 in the regular season) visiting the No. 8 seed Miami Heat (37-45) in the regular season) at Kaseya Center on TNT. Cleveland is up 3-0 and will look to sweep the Heat. The Cavaliers are averaging a whopping 122 points per game against Miami in this series. They have won five in a row overall against the Heat. Teams that take a 3-0 lead in a best-of-seven series are 158-0 all-time. Cleveland is a 9-point favorite, and the total is 209.5.

SERIES RECAP

The disparity of wins between Miami and Cleveland in the regular season — Cleveland finished with 27 more wins than Miami — has been glaring in this first-round matchup as Cleveland’s average margin of victory over the first three games is 22.3 points. Cleveland opened the series with a 121-100 win in Game 1 on April 20. Miami was able to stay within 8-15 points for most of the game until the 7:46 mark of the fourth quarter when Cleveland closed out the contest with a 26-12 run. 

Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 30 points (11-19 FG, 2-9 3Pt, 6-7 FT) for Cleveland in the Game One win. It was the seventh straight playoff series where Mitchell scored at least 30 points in a Game One, tying Michael Jordan, who did it on two separate occasions. Ty Jerome added 28 points (10-15 FG, 5-8 3Pt, 3-5 FT), five rebounds, and three assists off the bench in his playoff debut. Bam Adebayo registered 24 points (10-22 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 3-6 FT), nine rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block for Miami. Tyler Herro added 21 points. 

Game Two had a similar theme to the opener as Cleveland maintained a double-digit lead for most of the game and then staved off a fourth-quarter Miami rally to win 121-112. Cleveland led 68-51 at halftime and held a double-digit lead entering the fourth quarter. Miami reduced the deficit to 105-103 with 3:11 left in the game after a Tyler Herro basket. Cleveland then outscored Miami 16-9 the rest of the way. Donovan Mitchell totaled 30 points for a second straight game in the win. Tyler Herro scored a game-high 33 points on 14-of-24 shooting in a losing effort. 

Despite dropping the first two games by 21 and 9 points, respectively, Miami was somewhat competitive in both losses. It was assumed that Miami would perform a lot better returning home for Game Three on Saturday afternoon. Unfortunately, the opposite happened as Cleveland pummeled Miami 124-87. The 37-point defeat was the worst playoff loss in Miami Heat history, eclipsing a 36-point defeat in Game Three of the 2013 NBA Finals at San Antonio. 

Miami opened Game Three with a 15-6 lead at the 6:16 mark of the first quarter after an Andrew Wiggins three-pointer. Things quickly unraveled for Miami as Cleveland went on a 33-5 run over the remaining minutes of the first quarter and opening minutes of the second quarter. Cleveland turned a 15-6 deficit into a 39-20 lead. The Cavaliers led 62-42 at the half and continued to overwhelm the Heat for the entire second half en route to the 37-point win. The Cavs won Game Three without the services of All-Star Darius Garland, who was out with a toe injury.

Jarrett Allen scored a team-high 22 points (8-9 FG, 6-6 FT) and pulled down ten rebounds for the Cavaliers in the Game Three win. DeAndre Hunter added 21 points (6-8 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 6-6 FT), four rebounds, three assists, and a steal off the bench. Bam Adebayo led Miami with 22 points (9-20 FG, 4-7 FT) and nine rebounds in the loss.   

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: CLEVELAND

In September 2022, the Cleveland Cavaliers took a risk by trading for then 25-year-old superstar Donovan Mitchell. The All-Star guard had two years remaining on his contract, and it was rumored that he desired to play for a big market team such as the Lakers, Clippers, 76ers, or Knicks. But two seasons of individual and team success convinced Mitchell to stay with the Cavs. He agreed to a three-year, $150 million extension prior to the season in July. 

With superstar Donovan Mitchell locked up for three more seasons, along with a talented supporting cast, the Cavaliers got off to a historic start this season. They began the year 15-0, and became the fourth team in NBA history to do so. The Cavaliers remained dominant for the entire season, finishing with a 64-18 record. They also amassed separate winning streaks of 15 and 16 games. Cleveland’s 64 wins is their most since the 2008-09 season when they finished 66-16. 

Donovan Mitchell completed another terrific regular season, finishing with averages of 24 points, 5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 3.3 threes, while shooting 44.3 percent from the floor across 71 games. Mitchell was named an All-Star for the 6th time in his 8-year NBA career. He’s averaging 24.3 points per game against Miami in this first-round series. Darius Garland (20.6 pts, 6.7 asts, 1.2 stls, 2.8 threes, 47.2% from 2, 40.1% from three in 75 games) and Evan Mobley (18.5 pts, 9.3 rebs, 1.6 blks, 1.2 threes, 55.7% from 2 in 71 games) were also selected as All-Stars this year. 

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: MIAMI

Miami was expected to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference this year led by its star Jimmy Butler, and the talented duo of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Butler had led Miami to improbable runs to the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023. He earned the nickname “Playoff Jimmy” due to his knack of elevating his play to Michael Jordan-like levels during the 2020 and 2023 playoffs. However, problems arose prior to the season when Butler became eligible for a two-year, $113 million dollar max extension last summer, and Miami refused to extend him. 

Miami’s refusal to give Jimmy Butler a two-year extension festered during the season as Butler became increasingly frustrated to the point that he began to lash out. Butler openly requested a trade from Miami after a Jan. 2 loss to Indiana. He then walked out of a practice on Jan. 27, which led to an indefinite suspension. Miami eventually dealt Butler to the Golden State Warriors on Feb. 7 in a five-team trade. Golden State gave Butler his coveted two-year extension shortly after the trade. The Heat received swingman Andrew Wiggins as part of the trade compensation for Butler. 

The loss of Jimmy Butler made things worse for Miami — who hovered around the .500 mark with Butler — as they went 4-17 in their first 21 games without him. The Heat endured a 10-game losing streak during that dismal 21-game stretch. They fell to a season-low 12 games below .500 at 29-41 on March 21. Miami eventually righted the ship and closed out the regular season winning 8 of their last 12 games to finish 37-45 and secure the No. 10 seed. They also exacted some revenge on Butler, when they blew out Golden State 112-86 on March 25 in Butler’s return to Miami. 

Despite the turbulent regular season, the emerging mainstay duo of Tyler Herro (career-high 23.9 pts, 5.5 asts, 5.2 rebs, 3.3 threes, 47.2% from 2, 37.5% from 3 in 77 games) and Bam Adebayo (18.1 pts, 9.6 rebs, 4.3 asts, 1.3 stls, 1 three, 48.5% from 2 in 78 games) were excellent this season. The 25-year-old Herro was named an All-Star for the first time in his career this season, and averaged at least 20 points per game for a fourth straight season. The 27-year-old Adebayo is a three-time All-Star.

THE PICK: THE HEAT (+9)

Despite the lopsided nature of the first three games of this series, I think Miami will muster up some of the infamous “Heat Culture” for at least one more night and keep this one close, or possibly win it. I expect big games from Heat mainstays Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro against a Cavs team who may not be completely focused after their dominant win in Game 3 at Miami on Saturday afternoon. Take the Points and Miami tonight!