NBA Picks 2/27 – Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA Picks 2/27 – Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Denver Nuggets (38-20) continue their four-game East Coast road trip against the Milwaukee Bucks (32-25) tonight at Fiserv Forum on TNT. The perennial NBA powers are meeting for the first time tonight. They’ve split the regular season matchups (1-1) in each of the last four seasons. The Nuggets and Bucks will square off for a final time in the regular season on March 26 in Denver. Denver is a 3-point favorite and the total is 240.

Denver began their East Coast swing with a 125-116 win at Indiana on Monday night. Denver led by 17 (100-83) entering the fourth quarter. Indiana pulled within 113-107 with a little over three minutes remaining in the game but Denver was able to pull away and pick up the victory. Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic amassed 18 points (9-14 FG, 0-1 3Pt), a career-high 19 assists, nine rebounds, three steals and one block in 39 minutes. 

Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon scored a team-high 25 points (11-17 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 1-1 FT) along with five rebounds, two assists and two steals over 24 minutes. It was his highest point total since Nov. 1. All five Denver starters scored at least 16 points in the win at Indiana. Denver has won 10 of their last 11 games and four of their last five on the road.

Milwaukee is coming off a 100-97 loss at Houston on Tuesday night. Damian Lillard missed the potential game-tying three-pointer at the buzzer. Giannis Antetokounmpo racked up a game-high 27 points (9-17 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 9-12 FT), ten rebounds, six assists, one steal and a block across 32 limited minutes. Giannis has been on a minutes restriction since his return from a calf injury on Feb. 20. Lillard added 22 points (7-22 FG, 4-11 3Pt, 4-5 FT), three assists and a steal over 37 minutes. 

GAME STORYLINES: DENVER

In 2014, the Denver Nuggets used their second-round pick to select a relatively unknown center out of Serbia named Nikola Jokic. The selection of Jokic was pretty much an afterthought especially when you consider Jokic spent the 2014-15 season playing for Mega Basket in the Adriatic Basketball Association instead of the Nuggets. Jokic did join Denver for the 2015-16 season and the rest has been history as he’s developed into one of the great NBA players of all time. Over his 9 full NBA seasons, Jokic has been named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player three times (2021, 2022, 2024), made seven All-Star teams and led Denver to the franchise’s first NBA title in 2023 where he was named the Finals MVP. 

Nikola Jokic has continued his stellar level of play in year 10 this season as he’s averaging 29.2 points, 12.6 rebounds, 10.4 assists, 1.8 steals and 2 threes per game while shooting 57.5 percent from the floor and 44.5 percent from long distance across 52 games. If Jokic can maintain these numbers, he’d become the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season. Jokic would join Oscar Robertson and current teammate Russell Westbrook as the only players to do it.

The trio of shooting guard Jamal Murray (21.1 ppg, 6.1 asts, 3.8 rebs, 1.4 stls, 2.4 threes, 47.5% from 2, 40% from 3), athletic forward Michael Porter Jr. (18.6 ppg, 6.7 rebs, 2.6 threes, 51.6% from 2, 41% from 3) and emerging third-year guard Christian Braun (14.9 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 1.1 stls, 57.5% from 2) have been tremendous in complimentary roles alongside Nikola Jokic. When healthy, Murray has been an elite second option to Jokic, particularly during the Nuggets run to capturing the 2023 NBA title. Murray has averaged at least 20 ppg in four straight seasons now. The 23-year-old Braun has more than doubled his scoring average this season from 7.3 ppg last year to 14.9 ppg.

NBA Picks 2/27 – Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

During the offseason, Denver made a notable addition when they signed 9-time All-Star and 2017 NBA MVP Russell Westbrook as a free agent. The Nuggets inked the 36-year-old Westbrook to a two-year, vet minimum contract. The lack of playmaking and consistent scoring outside of Nikola Jokic in last year’s stunning playoff series loss to the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference semifinals may have triggered Denver to add Westbrook. Westbrook is averaging 12.8 points, 6.3 assists, 5 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 46.8 percent from the floor in 51 contests as a part-time starter. 

GAME STORYLINES: MILWAUKEE

Much like the superstar on the opposing side tonight (Nikola Jokic), Giannis Antetokounmpo was also an unheralded draft pick — No. 15 overall in the 2013 — from overseas who developed into an MVP-caliber player. Giannis broke through and won his NBA title in 2021, which was two years before Jokic. In his 11 full NBA seasons, Giannis’ accolades include 2 NBA MVP awards (2018, 2019), 9 All-Star appearances, 8 All-NBA selections, 5 All-NBA defensive team selections, the 2019-20 Defensive Player of the Year and the 2021 NBA Finals MVP. 

Unfortunately for the Bucks, they have not come close to making it back to the NBA Finals in the three full seasons since winning the 2021 championship. The last three postseasons have ended with two first-round exits in 2023 and 2024 to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat and sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers, respectively, and a second-round exit to the Boston Celtics in the 2022 Eastern Conference semifinals. The Bucks postseason shortcomings led to the firings of head coaches Mike Budenholzer (May 5, 2023) and Adrian Griffin (Jan. 24, 2024) within one calendar year. 

The inability of Giannis Antetokounmpo — and co-star Khris Middleton to a lesser extent — to stay healthy in the playoffs over the last three seasons has also doomed Milwaukee. Giannis was only able to play two full games when the top-seeded Bucks lost 4-1 to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. Last season, Giannis missed the entire 2024 first-round playoff series loss (left calf injury) to the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers. After averaging 23.6 ppg during Milwaukee’s 2021 championship run, Middleton missed 10 of 12 postseason games in 2022 and had been injury-prone during the last three seasons.

NBA Picks 2/27 – Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee added then seven-time All-NBA guard Damian Lillard prior to the 2023-24 season which gave them a legitimate 1-2 superstar combo. The Bucks did finish with a respectable 49-33 record in 2023-24 but Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lillard were both hobbled by injuries in their first-round loss to the lower seeded Indiana Pacers. Giannis missed the entire series while Lillard was hampered by a right Achilles tendon injury that caused him to miss two games. Lillard did average 31.3 ppg in the four games he played against Indiana. 

The 2024-25 season has been somewhat of a disappointment for Milwaukee as they got off to a 1-6 start and have not necessarily resembled a championship team up to this point as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard have dealt with nagging injuries all year. Boston and Cleveland are both in a tier above Milwaukee, and it may be getting too late in the season for the Bucks to have a legitimate shot at realistically competing with those teams in the postseason. 

Despite the underwhelming results as a team, Giannis Antetokounmpo (31 ppg, 12 rebs, 5.8 asts, 1.3 blks, 60.9% from 2 in 45 gms) and Damian Lillard (25.5 ppg, 7.4 asts, 4.7 rebs, 1.2 stls, 3.5 threes in 47 gms) are having terrific statistical seasons. Both were named All-Stars this year. 

The Bucks were dealt a tough blow when star sixth man Bobby Portis (13.4 ppg, 8.1 rebs, 1.3 threes, 46.3% from 2) was issued a 25-game suspension from the NBA for violating the league’s anti-drug policy on Feb. 20. He’ll be eligible to return on April 8 which is four games before the end of the regular season. 

Milwaukee did acquire Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma on Feb. 5 prior to the trade deadline. The addition of Kuzma should be able to soften the blow of losing Portis. The 29-year-old Kuzma was a 20 ppg scorer with the Wizards in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, and won a championship with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020. Kuzma is averaging 15.3 ppg and 7.3 rpg in his eight games with Milwaukee.  

THE PICK: DENVER (-3)

Denver has won 10 of their last 11 and look to be ramping up for the playoffs. I think the take care of business tonight in Milwaukee. The Bucks have been inconsistent for most of the season. Lay the Points and take Denver!

NBA Picks 2/27 – Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks