College Basketball Picks 2/18 – Villanova @ UCONN

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Two charter members of the venerable Big East Conference square off tonight as the Villanova Wildcats (15-11, 8-7 Big East) visit the back-to-back reigning national champion Connecticut Huskies (17-8, 9-5 Big East) at XL Center in Hartford, CT on FS1. This is the second and final regular season meeting between these two teams. Villanova upset then No. 9 UConn 68-66 at home on Jan. 8. It was UConn’s first conference loss of the season. UConn had won four in a row against Villanova prior to that loss. UConn is an 8-point favorite and the total is 139.5.

Villanova is coming off a 75-62 loss at Providence on Saturday night. Providence opened a 12-point lead (36-24) at halftime, extended that lead to 22 in the second half and Villanova was never able to be competitive. Senior guard Wooga Poplar led Villanova in scoring with 18 points (6-12 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 4-5 FT) and added nine rebounds and two steals over 38 minutes. Senior guard Jordan Longino produced 18 points (7-14 FG, 4-4 FT) while fifth-year senior Eric Dixon — the nation’s leading scorer at 23.2 ppg— finished with 15 points (6-15 FG, 1-7 3Pt, 2-2 FT) and nine rebounds. The loss to Providence snapped a three-game winning streak for Villanova.

Connecticut is coming off a stunning 69-68 overtime loss at lowly Seton Hall on Saturday. UConn led 68-63 with 59 seconds remaining in overtime but three turnovers from UConn along with four clutch free throws and an offensive rebound putback by Seton Hall forward Scotty Middleton with 3.5 seconds left allowed Seton Hall to pull out an improbable win. The victory ended a nine-game losing streak for Seton Hall.

UConn junior forward Alex Karaban finished with a team-high 20 points (7-14 FG, 2-7 3Pt, 4-4 FT), six rebounds, two assists and three blocks in 44 minutes. Sophomore guard Solo Ball chipped in with 15 points (4-13 FG, 4-9 3Pt, 3-5 FT), seven rebounds and a block over 43 minutes. The Huskies have dropped two of their last three games.

GAME STORYLINES: VILLANOVA

For 21 seasons (2001-2022) head coach Jay Wright guided Villanova to extraordinary heights. He won two NCAA championships in 2016 and 2018, advanced to the Final Four 4 times (2009, 2016, 2018, 2022), was named Big East Coach of the Year 6 times and is the only coach in NCAA history to lead a team to four consecutive 30-win seasons (2015-2018). Wright shocked the college basketball world when he announced his retirement in April 2022 shortly after making a fourth appearance in the Final Four. Wright amassed a record of 520-197 (.720) in his 21 seasons at Villanova. 

Villanova named Kyle Neptune as its head coach shortly after Jay Wright’s retirement in April 2022. He was an assistant under Wright for 8 seasons before becoming the head coach at Fordham University in March 2021. Neptune has had somewhat of a rocky start in his tenure as Villanova’s head coach. His first two full seasons (2022-23 and 2023-24) as coach only mustered back-to-back NIT appearances where the Wildcats were eliminated in the first round. Villanova will have an uphill climb to make the NCAA tournament this year as they are firmly on the outside of the NCAA tournament bubble with a 15-11 record.

College Basketball Picks 2/18 – Villanova @ UCONN

Despite the uneven season as a team, fifth-year senior Eric Dixon is putting together one of the best statistical seasons in Villanova history. The 6-foot-8 stretch forward is leading the nation in scoring at 23.2 points per game on 46.2 percent shooting from the floor and 42.1 percent shooting from long distance. His 23.2 points per game average is the highest for a Villanova player in a season since Howard Porter averaged 23.5 ppg in 1970-71. Dixon has been in Villanova’s program for five years and has improved his average in each of those five seasons. 

Developing seldom-used freshman into stars as upperclassmen was a staple under Jay Wright. Dixon was recruited by Wright and has followed that path. He averaged just 3 points per game as a true freshman in 21 appearances during the 2020-21 season and now has a great opportunity to lead the nation in scoring this year. 

Fellow seniors Wooga Poplar (14.8 ppg, 6.5 rebs, 1.4 stls, 49.4% from 2, 40.3% from 3) and Jordan Longino (11.8 ppg, 2.3 asts, 45.3% from 2) are the standouts alongside star Eric Dixon. Poplar leads the team in rebounding and steals, he transferred in from the University of Miami prior to this season. The Philadelphia native spent three seasons at Miami and started every game for them last season. Like Dixon, Longino has also improved tremendously during his time at Villanova. He averaged 1.8 ppg as a freshman in 2021-22 and has seen that average increase by 10 points as a senior this season.   

GAME STORYLINES: CONNECTICUT

Connecticut head coach Dan Hurley’s first four years (2018-2022) at Connecticut did not go smoothly as he finished below .500 at 16-17 (6-12 in the AAC conference) in his first season. In year two UConn was 19-12 (10-8 in the AAC) heading into the conference tournament but COVID wiped out virtually the entire 2019-20 postseason. The following two seasons (2021 and 2022) saw Hurley guide UConn back to the NCAA tournament — their first tourney appearance since 2016 — but they suffered one-and-done first round upsets to 10th seeded Maryland in 2021 and 12th seeded New Mexico State in 2022. 

After a so-so first four years at UConn, head coach Dan Hurley turned things around in a big way by winning back-to-back National Championships in 2023 and 2024. UConn became the first team to repeat as champions since the Florida Gators did it in 2006 and 2007. What’s more remarkable about Dan Hurley’s back-to-back titles is he did it with essentially two different rosters. UConn only returned two starters (Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban) from the 2023 National Championship team. 

Despite losing four starters — Stephon Castle, Donovan Clingan, Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer — from last year’s stellar championship team, UConn began the year ranked No. 3 in the nation. The belief that Hurley could build an elite team from scratch in one offseason again played a huge role in the tremendous expectations for UConn this season. 

College Basketball Picks 2/18 – Villanova @ UCONN

Versatile junior forward Alex Karaban (13.3 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 2.1 threes, 49.5% from 2 in 39 starts last year) is the lone returning starter from last year’s 37-3 championship team. Karaban also started on the 2022-23 championship team as a freshman.

UConn appeared to be in championship form through the first four games of this season when they won each game by at least 30 points. Then came a disastrous trip to Hawaii for the Maui Invitational where they lost three games to unranked teams in Memphis, Colorado and Dayton. UConn finished 8th (last place) in the Maui Invitational. The three straight losses dropped UConn from No. 2 in the country to No. 25. UConn then proceeded to win 8 straight games — including their first four Big East games — which boosted them back to No. 9 in the country. But they’ve gone 5-5 since then and are now unranked.

The Huskies are led by the trio of freshman sensation Liam McNeeley (team-leading 15.1 ppg, 6.5 rebs, 2.4 asts in 17 gms), sophomore guard Solo Ball (14.8 ppg, 3.6 rebs, 3.0 threes, 45.1% from 2, 44.3% from 3) and the aforementioned Alex Karaban (14.5 ppg, 5 rebs, 3 asts, 1.7 blks in 23 gms). McNeeley was a 2024 McDonald’s All-American and a top 10 recruit. He missed 8 games in January and early February with an ankle injury. He rejoined the team on Feb. 7 and is averaging 22.3 ppg in 3 games since returning. Ball has made tremendous strides as a sophomore, he’s raised his scoring average from 3.2 last year to 14.8 this year.

THE PICK: UCONN (-7.5)

Despite the somewhat inconsistent season from UConn up to this point, I think they get back on track at home against a mediocre Villanova team. The shocking last-second loss to a bad Seton Hall team in their last game over the weekend should inspire a dominant performance in Hartford tonight. Lay the Points and take UConn!