NBA Picks 2/12 – San Antonion Spurs @ Boston Celtics

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The San Antonio Spurs (23-38) conclude their six-game road trip at the defending World Champion Boston Celtics (36-18) tonight at TD Garden on ESPN. This is the first of two regular season matchups between the teams. They’ll face off again on March 29 in San Antonio. Boston has won four in a row against San Antonio, the last three of those victories have been by an average of 33 points per game. Boston is an 8.5-point favorite and the total is 233.5.

San Antonio is coming off a 131-121 win at Washington on Monday night. Second-year superstar center Victor Wembanyama produced a huge game of 33 points (12-21 FG, 5-8 3Pt, 2-4 FT), 15 rebounds, four assists, three blocks and two steals over 38 minutes. It was his 27th double-double of the season. Newly acquired guard De’Aaron Fox added 30 points (7-14 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 15-18 FT), six assists, four rebounds and a steal across 36 minutes. San Antonio had lost three of four on their road trip before defeating Washington.

Boston cruised past the Miami Heat 103-85 in Miami on Monday night. They won the game without starters Jaylen Brown (knee) and Jrue Holiday (shoulder) who sat out with injuries. Jayson Tatum finished with 33 points (13-26 FG, 4-12 3Pt, 3-3 FT), eight rebounds, two assists and a block in 38 minutes. Kristaps Porzingis contributed 17 points (8-15 FG, 1-6 3Pt), nine rebounds, two assists and two blocks across 32 minutes. All five of Boston’s starters scored in double digits. Boston has won six of their last seven games.

GAME STORYLINES: SAN ANTONIO

Two seasons ago, every non-playoff team spent the year tanking in order to land the No. 1 pick and select 7-foot-5 phenom Victor Wembanyama. The 19-year-old wunderkind was one of the most ballyhooed prospects in the history of the NBA draft. San Antonio ended up finishing the 2022-23 season with a 22-60 record which was tied for the second-worst record in the NBA behind 17-65 Detroit. The Spurs ended up winning the NBA Draft lottery in May 2023 and went on to select Wembanyama with the No. 1 overall pick the following month.

Victor Wembanyama exceeded the enormous expectations placed upon as a rookie. He averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks, 1.8 threes and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 46.5 percent from the floor over 71 games en route to being named the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year. Wembanyama has been even better in year two averaging 24.4 points, 11 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 3.9 blocks, 3.1 threes and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 47.7 percent from the floor through 45 games. He was selected to participate in Sunday’s All-Star game

Despite the suberb rookie season from Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio ended up with the same number of wins (22) that they had the year prior to Wembanyama’s arrival. The Spurs made three significant changes to improve the supporting cast around Wembanyama. The first was drafting UConn guard Stephon Castle (12.7 ppg, 3.6 asts in 50 gms) with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft in June. San Antonio then signed 36-year-old, 9-time All-Star Chris Paul (9.3 ppg, 8.1 asts, 1.7 threes, 1.2 stls in 51 gms) to a 1-year, $11 million deal in July 2024. Both players are having excellent debut seasons with the Spurs.

The biggest change the Spurs made was acquiring star point guard De’Aaron Fox from the Sacramento Kings in a three-way trade on Feb. 2. The 27-year-old, one-time All-Star has established himself as one of the better point guards in the NBA over the past several years now and his addition gives San Antonio a legitimate 1-2 superstar combo. Fox is averaging 21.3 points, 8.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 2.3 steals on 46.9 percent shooting from the floor in four games with San Antonio. His scoring is down slightly with the Spurs — Fox averaged at least 25 ppg in four of his last five seasons with Sacramento — but his assists are up which could indicate Fox is willing to sacrifice his scoring for the good of the team/getting Wembanyama touches.

Shooting guard Devin Vassell (16.1 ppg, 3.6 rebs, 1.1 stls, 2.3 threes), forward Jeremy Sochan (11.9 ppg, 7.3 rebs, 54.4% from 2) and veteran swingman Harrison Barnes (11.8 ppg, 4.1 rebs, 1.2 threes, 50.6% from 2, 42.5% from 3) are holdovers from last season’s team who provide solid contributions. All three have taken lesser roles this season due to the additions of Castle, Paul and Fox.

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

Last year, the Boston Celtics completed one of the great seasons in the history of its storied franchise. They won 64 regular seasons games and breezed though the playoffs with a 16-3 record en route to winning the NBA championship. It was their most wins and first title since the 2007-08 season. The Celtics also set an NBA-record by winning nineteen regular season games by 25+ points. Their three playoff losses matched the iconic Larry Bird-led 1985-86 Celtics for the fewest in modern franchise history. 

The All-Star duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been teammates for eight seasons now and led Boston to deep playoffs runs consistently — including a trip to the 2022 NBA Finals — before winning the title last season. Both players continue to excel this season as Tatum is averaging 26.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 3.6 threes while shooting 45.4 percent from the field. He leads Boston in scoring, rebounds and assists. Brown is averaging 22.9 points, 6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.9 threes while shooting 46.1 percent from the floor. Tatum and Brown were selected as All-Stars together for a third straight year.

Center Kristaps Porzingis (19.1 ppg, 7.1 rebounds, 1.6 blks, 2.4 threes, 47.4% from 2 in 28 gms), guard Derrick White (16.1 ppg, 4.2 rebs, 4.2 asts, 1.1 blks, 3.3 threes in 51 gms) and point guard Jrue Holiday (11 ppg, 4.4 rebs, 3.7 asts, 1.8 threes in 44 gms) round out perhaps the best starting five in the NBA. The 29-year-old Porzingis has been one of the most talented big men in the NBA since being selected fourth overall by the Knicks in the 2015 NBA draft and starring for them over the first 3 years of his career, but he’s been unable to stay healthy for most of his 10 seasons in the NBA. Porzingis has already missed 28 games this year due offseason leg surgery and a left ankle injury.

Not only does Boston possess one of the best starting units in the NBA, they also have tremendous firepower off the bench in super sub Payton Pritchard (career-high 13.9 ppg, 3.8 rebs, 3.5 asts, 3.2 threes, 47.1% from 2, 41.6% from 2 in 53 gms as the 6th man), veteran big man Al Horford (8 ppg, 5.4 rebs, 1.8 threes in 42 gms) and sharpshooting forward Sam Hauser (7.6 pts, 3 rebs, 2.1 threes, 40.5% from 3 in 45 gms). The trio has been outstanding providing a spark off the bench and picking up the slack when the starters are out with injuries.  

THE PICK: CELTICS (-8.5)

After sleepwalking through most of January, it looks like Boston is back in championship form after winning 6 of 7 and picking up impressive road wins against Eastern Conference powers Cleveland and New York. San Antonio is probably looking more forward to heading back home to Texas than playing in Boston tonight. Lay the Points and take the Celtics!