NFL Picks 10/6 – Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

NFL Picks 10/6 – Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Buffalo Bills (3-1) visit the Houston Texans (3-1) on Sunday afternoon at NRG Stadium. The teams are squaring off for the first since the 2021 season when Buffalo pounded the visiting Texans 40-0. Houston had won four of five against Buffalo prior to that loss. Houston has won four straight games at home against Buffalo dating back to 2012. Buffalo’s last win at Houston was in November 2006. Houston is a 1-point favorite and the total is 47. 

Buffalo suffered a 35-10 thrashing at Baltimore last week, it was their first loss of the season. Baltimore running back Derrick Henry ran for an 87-yard touchdown on Baltimore’s first play from scrimmage in the first quarter and the game was never in doubt afterwards. Henry finished with 199 yards on 24 carries. Josh Allen completed 16 of 29 passes for 180 yards in the loss. Wideout Khalil Shakir led the team with four catches for 62 yards. The Bills were averaging 37.3 points per game during their 3-0 start before losing to the Ravens. 

Houston rallied for a 24-20 win at home against winless Jacksonville last week. C.J. Stroud threw a one-yard touchdown pass to running back Dare Ogunbowale with 18 seconds to give the Texans the lead. Stroud completed 27 of 40 passes for 345 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Star wideout Nico Collins hauled in 12 catches for a career-high 151 yards and a touchdown for Houston. 

NFL Picks 10/6 – Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Sunday’s game features an interesting backstory as Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs will face his former team. The star wideout spent the last four seasons with Buffalo where he had the most productive seasons of his nine year career,  including racking up an NFL-leading and career-high 1,535 receiving yards in 2020. It was reported that Diggs could be a problematic teammate at times during his tenure with Buffalo which led to him being traded to Houston in the offseason.

GAME STORYLINES: BUFFALO

After drafting Josh Allen with the No. 7 pick in the 2018 NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills finally landed the franchise quarterback that’s eluded them since Jim Kelly retired in 1996. Not coincidentally, Allen has led the Bills franchise to heights it has not seen since Hall of Famer Jim Kelly was under center from 1986-1996. 

Josh Allen led the Bills to the AFC Championship Game in 2020 for the first time since Kelly did it in 1993. The Bills have also won the AFC East division for 4 consecutive years for the first time since 1988-1991 when Kelly was the signal caller. The Bills have dominated the AFC East division since Tom Brady left the Patriots following the 2019 season. The Patriots had won 11 consecutive AFC East division crowns prior to the Bills current run. 

There were some questions about how good the Bills would be in 2024 after they traded talented and temperamental wide receiver Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs established himself as one of the top wideouts in the NFL during his 4 years with Buffalo but his demonstrative demeanor during games was often viewed as hurting the team. Buffalo also lost their second-best wide receiver Gabe Davis, who signed with Jacksonville as a free agent. 

The losses of Diggs and Davis has not been a problem for Buffalo so far as Josh Allen is on pace to have his best season as a pro. Through 4 games this season, Allen has thrown for 814 yards with 7 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. He’s added 106 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Allen has not thrown an interception this season and only has 2 turnovers which is a far cry from previous seasons where he’s been among the league leaders in turnovers. 

Buffalo now has a young and deep group of skill position players led by running back James Cook (227 rushing yards, 106 receiving yards, 4 total touchdowns through 4 games this season), wideout Khalil Shakir (18 catches for 230 yards, 2 touchdowns), tight end Dalton Kincaid (13 catches for 132, 1 touchdown) and rookie wideout Keon Coleman (11 catches for 126 yards, 1 touchdown). Cook is the oldest of this group at just 25, while Coleman is 21. This group has the potential to develop into an explosive unit in the near future with Josh Allen as their signal caller. 

NFL Picks 10/6 – Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Buffalo’s defense remains strong again this season. All Pro linebacker Von Miller (3 sacks in 4 games), defensive end Greg Rousseau (13 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble), defensive end AJ Epenesa (7 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 1 sack) and safety Damar Hamlin (22 tackles, 2 tackles for loss and 1 interception) are some of the standouts on defense. Hamlin has made a remarkable comeback after suffering cardiac arrest during a Monday Night Football game on January 2, 2023. Miller will miss the next 4 games after the NFL suspended him for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. 

GAME STORYLINES: HOUSTON

From 2020-2022, the Houston Texans failed to win more than 4 games in a season and they won a total of 11 games over that span. It appeared as if Houston had really screwed up in the 2022 season after winning 2 of their final 3 games to finish 3-13-1 and squandering the highly coveted No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Carolina ended up with the first pick and selected Alabama quarterback Bryce Young while Houston got the second pick and “settled” for Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud. 

In an unexpected turn of events, C.J. Stroud is the one who ended up taking the NFL by storm as a rookie while Bryce Young struggled with Carolina. Stroud put together an extraordinary rookie season where he passed for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to 5 interceptions while completing 63.9 percent of his passes across 15 games. He also led Houston to a 10-7 record — a 7 game improvement over 2022 — and their first division title since 2018. Houston also earned their first playoff win since 2019 after a 45-14 rout of the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card round. Stroud was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year.

C.J. Stroud was not the only Texans rookie to make a splash last season. Defensive end Will Anderson Jr. was named the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year after compiling 45 tackles, a team rookie single-season record 7 sacks and 10.5 stuffs across 15 games. Houston traded up 9 spots to select the Alabama product third overall. Anderson has now established himself as one of the NFL’s top defensive players in year two as he has 2.5 sacks in 4 games and is considered one of the best at pressuring quarterbacks.

Fourth-year wide receiver Nico Collins is C.J. Stroud’s top weapon in Houston’s offense. The 25-year-old Michigan product experienced a breakout campaign last season (80 catches for 1,297 yards and 8 touchdowns in 15 games) with Stroud at the helm. Collins has gotten off to a blistering start this year as he’s amassed an NFL-leading 489 yards through 4 games. He’s 103 yards ahead of the second ranked receiver — Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin. 

NFL Picks 10/6 – Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Houston added former Pro Bowl veterans Joe Mixon (184 rushing yards and 1 touchdown in 2 games this season) and Stefon Diggs (233 receiving yards, 3 total touchdowns in 4 games) to solidify the offense and possibly signal to the fanbase an all-out effort to win a Super Bowl this year. Mixon opened the season with a spectacular stat line of 159 yards on 30 carries and a touchdown in Houston’s 29-27 win at Indianapolis. 

Unfortunately, Joe Mixon suffered an ankle injury in the third quarter of the Houston’s second game against Chicago and has not played since. He has been ruled out of Sunday’s game against Buffalo. Stefon Diggs scored twice in last week’s 30-27 win against Jacksonville and should be highly motivated to play against his former team on Sunday.

THE PICK: TEXANS (-1)

Buffalo will be missing several key players — WR Khalil Shakir, DT Ed Oliver, S Taylor Rapp, DE Von Miller — for this game, I think it will be way too much for them to overcome against a playoff caliber team like the Texans. Lay the Point…Texans 30, Bills 23