Baseball Playoff Picks 10/4 – San Diego Padres @ LA Dodgers

Baseball Playoff Picks 10/4 – San Diego Padres @ LA Dodgers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Game One of the National League Divisional Series begins tonight with a battle between National League West rivals as the No. 4 seed San Diego Padres (93-69) visit the No. 1 seed Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64) tonight on FS1. The in-state, divisional rivals met 13 times during the regular season with San Diego going 8-5 against Los Angeles. The Dodgers took two of three from the visiting Padres in the final matchup between the teams in late September. 

The MLB season opened with these two clubs squaring off in a mini two-game series in South Korea on March 20-21. It was the first MLB game to ever be played in South Korea. The Dodgers won the opener 5-2 and San Diego prevailed 15-11 in the second game.

This will be the third ever playoff meeting between San Diego and Los Angeles. The previous two were also in the divisional round of the playoffs. In 2020, the top-seeded Dodgers swept the fourth seeded Padres enroute to winning the World Series. The Dodgers outscored the Padres 23-9 in that sweep. Two years later, San Diego returned the favor by upsetting the heavily-favored, top-seeded seed Dodgers 3-1. That Dodgers team went 111-51 during the regular season.

San Diego advanced the NLDS after sweeping the fifth-seeded Atlanta Braves 2-0 in the Wild Card round. The Padres won Game One after receiving a magnificent pitching performance from Michael King. The 29-year-old, right-hander struck out 12 over seven innings in his first career postseason start. San Diego jumped out to an early lead after star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. connected on a mammoth two-run homer in the first inning. San Diego held off Atlanta 5-4 in Game Two on Wednesday night to clinch the series. 

Tonight’s starters are Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA, 224 K’s across 33 starts in the regular season) for San Diego and rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA, 105 K’s in 18 starts) for Los Angeles. 

Baseball Playoff Picks 10/4 – San Diego Padres @ LA Dodgers

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: San Diego +114,   Los Angeles -135

Run Line: San Diego +1.5 (-192),   Los Angeles -1.5 (+160)

Run Total: over 7.5 (-115)   under 7.5 (-105)

GAME STORYLINES: SAN DIEGO

Two years ago, the San Diego Padres finished 89-73 and made a surprising run to the NLCS after upsetting two 100-win teams in the New York Mets (101-61) and the Dodgers (111-51). It was their first trip to the NLCS since 2010. Last season ended up being a huge disappointment as the Padres finished 82-80 and missed the playoffs. Inconsistent pitching, poor defense and rumored in-fighting amongst teammates doomed the 2023 season. 

Following the underwhelming 2023 season, San Diego made two huge transactions during the offseason. They decided to trade 25-year-old superstar outfielder Juan Soto to the New York Yankees in exchange for 5 players — 4 pitchers and a catcher — in December. Soto hit a career-high 35 homers with San Diego in 2023. The Padres then traded for Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease in March. The moves indicated that San Diego wanted to drastically improve their subpar pitching staff. The 28-year-old Cease recorded 200+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 seasons with the White Sox.

Baseball Playoff Picks 10/4 – San Diego Padres @ LA Dodgers

Despite the upgrade to the pitching staff and the acquisition of 2-time batting champ Luiz Arraez from the Miami Marlins in May, San Diego still found themselves floundering around the .500 mark for the entire first half of the season. They entered the All-Star break with a 50-49 record. San Diego came out on fire in the second half of the season winning 7 of their first 8 games and 19 of 23. They finished the 2024 season with a 93-69 record.

San Diego’s 93 wins this year is their most since 1998 when they finished 98-64 and made it to the World Series. A big factor in the second-half surge and fantastic overall record has been San Diego’s potent batting lineup led by 6-time All-Star Manny Machado. The 32-year-old third baseman’s 29 homers and 105 RBI led the team. He’s driven in 100+ runs in three of the last four seasons with the Padres and has 342 career homers over his illustrious 13-year MLB career. 

Left fielder Jurickson Profar (.280, 24 HR, 85 RBI in 158 games this year), 21-year-old rookie center fielder Jackson Merrill (.292, 24 HR, 90 RBI, 31 doubles, 6 triples, 16 steals in 156 games), first baseman Luiz Arraez (.317, 4 HR, 41 RBI in 117 games with SD) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (.276, 21 HR, 49 RBI, 21 doubles, 11 steals in 102 games) also had excellent seasons. Profar, Merrill and Tatis were selected as All-Stars this year. Arraez’ 200 hits ranked second in MLB behind Kansas City All-Star Bobby Witt Jr.

Baseball Playoff Picks 10/4 – San Diego Padres @ LA Dodgers

The Padres pitching staff was anchored by starters  Dylan Cease (16-14, 3.47 ERA, 224 K’s across 33 starts in 2024) and Michael King (13-9, 2.95 ERA, 200 K’s in 30 starts) along with closer Robert Suarez (36 saves, 2.77 ERA, 59 K’s in 65 innings pitches). Cease’s 224 strikeouts ranked fourth in MLB. He finished with 200+ strikeouts for the fourth straight season. Suarez was San Diego’s only pitcher to participate in the All-Star game. His 36 saves ranked fourth in MLB.

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

The Los Angeles Dodgers continued their stellar level of play in 2024 by finishing with the best record in baseball at 98-64. The Dodgers also won the National League West division for the 11th time in the last 12 seasons. They head into the postseason with the second best odds to win the World Series at +350. The New York Yankees are the favorites at +300.

The catalyst for the Dodgers success in 2024 has been the extraordinary play of designated hitter Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers signed the unrestricted free agent Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract last December. It’s the richest contract in MLB history. The addition of Ohtani to an already robust Dodgers lineup was essentially adding icing to the cake.

Shohei Ohtani was coming off a 2023 season where he won the American League MVP award after hitting .304 with 44 homers and 95 RBI for the Los Angeles Angels. He also went 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA and 167 strikeouts across 23 starts as a pitcher. Ohtani suffered an elbow injury last season that prevented him from pitching during the second half of the 2023 season. He then went through an offseason procedure on his UCL — supposedly not Tommy John surgery — which would only allow him to hit in 2024. 

Shohei Ohtani being “imited” to just hitting this season was no problem as he put together arguably the greatest single season in MLB history. Ohtani finished the year batting .310 with 54 homers, 130 RBI, 59 stolen bases, 38 doubles, 7 triples and 134 runs scored across 159 games. He became the first player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases. Ohtani set the historic 50/50 feat in a 20-4 rout of the host Miami Marlins on Sept. 19 where he put up an astonishing stat line of 6-for-6 with 3 homers, 10 RBI, 2 steals and 4 runs scored. He will be making his playoff debut against the Padres in Game 1.  

Baseball Playoff Picks 10/4 – San Diego Padres @ LA Dodgers

The Dodgers also received a career year from another free agent offseason signee in veteran slugger Teoscar Hernandez. They signed 31-year-old outfielder to a one-year, $23.5 million contract. He hit .272 with a career-high 33 homers and 99 RBI across 154 games. Hernandez has now hit at least 25 homers in 5 straight full seasons. He was named an All-Star for the second time in his career this season.

The holdover trio of first baseman Freddie Freeman (.282, 22 HR, 89 RBI, 35 doubles in 147 games), catcher Will Smith (.248, 20 HR, 75 RBI in 128 games) and shortstop Mookie Betts (.289, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 24 doubles, 16 steals in 116 games) also produced good seasons for the Dodgers. The All-Star trio had been carrying the Dodgers in recent years but the additions of Ohtani and Hernandez reduced the heavy lifting they needed to do on a game-to-game basis in 2024. 

THE PICK: PADRES (Moneyline)

The Dodgers have lost 6 straight postseason games dating back to their upset loss to the Padres in the 2022 NLDS. The Padres have their best pitcher taking the mound tonight while the Dodgers made a last-minute switch to a rookie. I’m sensing an upset here. Take the Padres on the moneyline!