NFL Picks 9/29 – Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

NFL Picks 9/29 – Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week Four of the NFL season matches up two perennial AFC powers as the Buffalo Bills (3-0) visit the Baltimore Ravens (1-2) on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. The teams are facing each other for the first time since October 2022 when Buffalo won 23-20 at Baltimore. Buffalo also defeated the visiting Ravens 17-3 in the divisional round of the 2020 playoffs in January 2021. Prior to those two losses, Baltimore had won six of eight against Buffalo dating back to the 2004 season. Baltimore is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 46.5.

Sunday’s prime time matchup also features the two most accomplished quarterbacks of the 2018 NFL draft in Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. Five quarterbacks – Baker Mayfield (1st), Sam Darnold (3rd), Josh Allen (7th), Josh Rosen (10th), Lamar Jackson (32nd) – were selected in the first round of that draft. Allen and Jackson are the only two who remain with the team that drafted them. Jackson has won two NFL MVP awards and been named to the Pro Bowl three times. Allen has been named to the Pro Bowl three times.

The undefeated Bills are coming off a 47-10 shellacking of the disappointing Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. Buffalo scored touchdowns on each of their first five first-half drives en route to a 34-3 halftime lead. Josh Allen threw all four of his touchdown passes in the first half. Those four touchdowns passes went to four different players. Allen finished the game completing 23 of 30 passes for 263 yards and four touchdowns. He also rushed for a team-high 44 yards on 6 carries. 

NFL Picks 9/29 – Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

Bills running back James Cook rushed for 39 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown while catching 4 balls for 48 yards in the win. Wideout Khalil Shakir hauled in six catches for a team-leading 72 yards and a touchdown. The Bills defense totaled five sacks and an interception as they engulfed Trevor Lawrence all night long. Safety Damar Hamlin picked up the Bills lone interception in the second quarter. Hamlin has made a remarkable comeback after suffering cardiac arrest during a Monday Night Football game against Cincinnati on January 2, 2023. He’s started all three games this season.

Baltimore picked up their first win of the season after holding off the host Dallas Cowboys 28-25 in Week Three. Newly acquired running back Derrick Henry rushed for a season-high 151 yards on 25 carries and two touchdowns in the win. Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson completed 12 of 15 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown. He added 14 carries for 87 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens finished with 274 rushing yards. 

GAME STORYLINES: BUFFALO

When the Buffalo Bills selected relatively unknown Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen with the No. 7 pick in the first round of a quarterback-laden 2018 NFL draft it was widely panned by a number of NFL folks. Allen is the highest drafted University of Wyoming player in NFL history and the second Wyoming player selected in the first round. After a solid first 2 years with the Buffalo, Allen established himself as an elite signal caller in his third year (2020) by passing for 4,544 yards with 37 touchdowns to 10 interceptions and 8 rushing touchdowns. Allen also led the Bills to a 13-3 record in 2020 and a trip to the AFC Championship Game – where they fell 38-24 at Kansas City.

Josh Allen has maintained his elite level of play over the past 3 seasons passing for 4,000+ yards each season and averaging over 30 touchdown passes per season. He’s also rushed for a combined 28 touchdowns over the last 3 seasons. Allen is often criticized for his turnovers but his overwhelming offensive production places him amongst the elite players in the game regardless of position. He is now a front-runner to win the 2024 NFL MVP award this year as he continues to produce extraordinary  offensive numbers without the turnovers. Allen has 9 total touchdowns with no turnovers through 3 games this season. 

It appeared as if Buffalo would struggle this season after they parted with ways with their top two wide receivers in temperamental star Stefon Diggs and speedster Gabe Davis. But Buffalo’s offense remains explosive as ever through three games due to Josh Allen’s ability to spread the ball around. Allen’s seven touchdown passes have gone to six different players. Allen’s knack of forcing passes to Stefon Diggs may have been a big factor in his sizeable amount of turnovers prior to this season.

NFL Picks 9/29 – Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

The key skill position players in Buffalo’s young and versatile offense are running back James Cook (188 rushing yards, 97 receiving yards, 4 total touchdowns through 3 games), wide receiver Khalil Shakir (team-leading 14 catches for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns) and tight end Dalton Kincaid (11 catches for 85 yards, 1 touchdown). Cook is 25-years-old, while Shakir and Kincaid are just 24. Expectations are high for 21-year-old rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman (7 catches for 75 yards, 1 touchdown), who the Bills drafted in the second round out of Florida State. 

When you look at the youth of Buffalo’s key skill position players along with the fact that Josh Allen is 28-years-old as he now plays in his 7th season, the Bills have the potential to be an explosive offense for the foreseeable future. The losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis may end up being addition by subtraction if the offense can maintain its current pace. The Bills have put up an NFL-leading 112 points through 3 games this season. 

GAME STORYLINES: BALTIMORE

Much like Sunday night’s opponent Buffalo, the Baltimore Ravens also ended up drafting their franchise quarterback (Lamar Jackson) in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft and watched him immediately blossom into a superstar early in his career. Despite putting together a spectacular three-year run at Louisville where he passed for 69 touchdowns, rushed for 50 touchdowns and won the Heisman as a true sophomore in 2016, there were questions about whether Lamar Jackson could play quarterback in the NFL.

The questions surrounding Lamar Jackson’s ability to play quarterback caused him to drop to the final pick of the first round of the 2018 draft where Baltimore selected him at No. 32. Jackson wasted no time proving the naysayers wrong as he was named NFL’s Most Valuable Player in just his second season after throwing for 3,157 yards with 36 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, while rushing for 1,206 with 7 rushing touchdowns in 2019. He became the second youngest player to win the award at just 22.

Lamar Jackson has maintained his excellent level of play for Baltimore as he won his second NFL MVP award last season after passing for a career-high 3,678 yards with 24 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, while adding 821 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Jackson also led Baltimore to the best record in the NFL at 13-4 last season but they came up just short of reaching the Super Bowl after losing at home to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. 

NFL Picks 9/29 – Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

In an effort to give Lamar Jackson some help on offense, Baltimore signed veteran All-Pro running back Derrick Henry to a 2-year, $16 million contract in March. The 30-year-old superstar Henry spent his entire NFL career with the Tennessee Titans where he amassed 9,502 yards and 90 touchdowns across 8 magnificent seasons. He’s rushed for at least 10 touchdowns in 6 consecutive seasons coming into this year. Henry rushed for 2,027 yards in 2020, he became the eighth running back in NFL history to accomplish the feat. 

Baltimore’s traditionally strong defense has struggled to open the season after allowing the fewest points (16.3ppg) last year. The Ravens have given up 78 points in 3 games this season. The slow start for the defense is surprising when you consider Baltimore has been a top-tier defense going back decades to the historic 2000 defense that won the Super Bowl. The Ravens defense did suffer two significant defections in linebacker Patrick Queen (133 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 interception in 2023) and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (43 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles in 2023) who left as free agents.

Safety Kyle Hamilton (21 tackles in 3 games), linebacker Roquan Smith (29 tackles, 1 interception), veteran linebacker Kyle Van Noy (6 tackles, 4 sacks), cornerback Marlon Humphrey (13 tackles, 1 interception) and defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike (5 tackles, 0.5 sacks) were all standouts on last year’s stout defense. The Ravens signed Madubuike to a four-year, $98 million contract extension in March after a breakout season in 2023. Based on past performance, the Ravens defense should be back in top form soon.

THE PICK: BALTIMORE (-2.5)

The Ravens got back on track last week in Dallas after a surprising 0-2 start. I’m expecting them to carry the momentum as they return home and play a big game in front of the home crowd on national television. Lay the Points…Ravens 24, Bills 17

NFL Picks 9/29 – Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens