MLB Picks 8/29 – Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

MLB Picks 8/29 – Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Kansas City Royals (75-59) open a four-game series on the road against the AL West-leading Houston Astros (71-62) tonight at Minute Maid Park. The teams are meeting for the second and final time tonight. Kansas City swept a three-game set from the visiting Astros way back in early April. Kansas City has dominated the Astros of late winning nine of the last ten head-to-head matchups dating back to last season. 

Kansas City dropped a tough 7-5 loss at the Cleveland Guardians yesterday. The Royals led 5-2 entering the seventh inning and then gave up four runs in the frame, followed by a another run in the top of the eighth which provided the final margin. Bobby Witt Jr., Vinny Pasquantino, and Michael Massey hit solo homers for Kansas City. The loss allowed Cleveland to regain sole possession of first place in the AL Central. Kansas City won the three previous games of the series against Cleveland before losing yesterday. 

Houston is coming off a 10-0 shellacking of the host Philadelphia Phillies yesterday. The Astros were buoyed by the efforts of All-Star outfielder Yordan Alvarez and rookie starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti. Alvarez hit three homers, while Arrighetti struck out 11 batters and took a no-hit bid into the eigth inning. The 7.2 innings was Arrighetti’s longest outing of his professional career in the majors or minors. Houston avoided a three-game sweep with the win.

Tonight’s starters are Brady Singer (9-9, 3.38 ERA, 141 K’s in 26 starts) for Kansas City and Hunter Brown (11-7, 3.72 ERA, 151 K’s in 25 starts) for Houston.

MLB Picks 8/29 – Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Kansas City +132,   Houston -156

Run Line: Kansas City +1.5 (-170),   Houston -1.5 (+140)

Run Total: over 8 (-115)    under 8 (-105)

GAME STORYLINES: KANSAS CITY

Last season, the Kansas City Royals finished with a horrific 56-106 record. They tied the 2005 team for the worst record in franchise history. They’ve experienced 8 straight non-winning seasons heading into this 2024 season. Expectations were low to non-existent for the 2024 Royals. But Kansas City has shocked the baseball world in 2024 as they enter tonight’s game with a 75-59 record, and are just one game behind Cleveland for first place in the AL Central. Kansas City is now in excellent position to make the postseason for the first time since 2015 when they won the World Series. 

The catalysts for Kansas City’s turnaround this year has been their terrific starting, along with excellent power production from the trio of young superstar Bobby Witt Jr., veteran Salvador Perez and rising star Vinny Pasquantino. Last season Kansas City’s 5.17 ERA ranked 28th (of 30) teams. The team ERA has improved to 3.86 this season which ranks 11th in MLB. Kansas City also ranks third in quality starts with 65. 

Veteran right-hander Seth Lugo has led the resurgent Kansas City pitching staff. The 34-year-old Lugo is 14-8 with a 3.19 ERA and a 146:43 K:BB across 27 starts this year. His 14 wins ranks second in MLB among starting pitchers. He’s come out of nowhere to have a career-year in his first season with the Royals and his ninth season overall. Lugo was named an All-Star for the first time in his career this season. 

MLB Picks 8/29 – Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

The trio of young lefty Cole Ragans (10-8, 3.28 ERA, 187 K’s in 27 starts), Michael Wacha (11-6, 3.50 ERA 120 K’s in 24 starts) and Brady Singer (9-9, 3.38 ERA, 141 K’s in 27 starts) have also been outstanding this season alongside Seth Lugo in the rotation. The 26-year-old Ragans’ 187 strikeouts ranks second in MLB. He was named an All-Star this season for first time in his three-year MLB career. Ragans and Seth Lugo made franchise history as it marked the first time that Kansas City had more than one starting pitcher make the All-Star team.

At the plate, Kansas City is led by superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. The 24-year-old Witt is having a spectacular season in year three. He’s hitting .346 with 28 homers, 95 RBI, 39 doubles, 11 triples and 27 steals through 134 games. Witt’s .346 batting average leads MLB while his 39 doubles and 11 triples both rank third. Witt was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 draft and has quickly established himself as one of the top players in MLB. 

Veteran catcher Salvador Perez (.281, 25 HR, 94 RBI, 26 doubles in 131 games) and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (.264, 19 HR, 97 RBI, 30 doubles in 130 games) are also having fantastic seasons for Kansas City. The 34-year-old Perez is compiling one of the best years of his 14-year MLB career this season. His 94 RBI this year are the second most in his career. The 26-year-old Pasquantino is enjoying a breakout campaign in his third year in the big leagues and first as an every day player. He 97 RBI leads the team and ranks fourth in MLB.

GAME STORYLINES: ASTROS

The Houston Astros 2024 season got off to an inauspicous start after opening the year getting swept by the New York Yankees in a four-game series at home. Things got worse for the Astros when they found themselves a season-worst 12 games below .500 at 12-24 on May 8. Houston eventually trailed the first-place Seattle Mariners by 10 games in the middle of June. This was a stunning development when you consider how dominant Houston has been since 2016.  

Not surprisingly, Houston righted the ship since the bad start and have now steamrolled past Seattle Mariners for the division lead. Houston is now 3.5 games ahead of Seattle and are well on their way to a seventh consecutive AL West title. Houston will probably enter the playoffs with the worst record among the division winners but their playoff excellence in recent years makes them a dangerous postseason team.

MLB Picks 8/29 – Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

At the plate, superstar outfielder Yordan Alvarez leads a deep and talented lineup. The 27-year-old, three-time All-Star Alvarez is batting .311 with 28 homers, 71 RBI and 29 doubles across 124 games. He leads the team in batting and homers, and is second in RBI. Alvarez was voted in as a starter at this year’s All-Star game for the first time in his career.  With 2 more homers, he’ll hit 30+ homers for a fourth straight season. 

Eight-time All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve (.299, 18 HR, 56 RBI, 23 doubles, 20 steals in 129 games), third baseman Alex Bregman (.261, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 26 doubles in 124 games), and catcher Yainer Diaz (.297, 16 HR, 72 RBI in 121 games) are all having standout seasons. The 34-year-old, 2017 AL MVP Altuve continues to play at a high level in his 14th MLB season – all with the Astros. The 30-year-old Bregman has hit 20+ homers for the fifth time in his career. The 25-year-old, second-year rising star Diaz leads the team in RBI. Diaz hit 23 homers last season in an impressive rookie year. 

 Houston has played most of the season without superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker. The 27-year-old, three-time All-Star is on the 60-day injured list with a right shin contusion and has not played since June 3. Tucker was hitting .266 with 19 homers and 60 RBI through 60 games. He was well on his way to an extraordinary season before going down. The Astros are hoping he can return in early September. A healthy Tucker in the postseason could make Houston the World Series favorites.

THE PICK: ASTROS (Run Line)

I think Astros take care of business tonight as they return home with their best pitcher taking the mound. Kansas City may be a little too green to handle a road game against a playoff-tested team going on their stretch run towards the playoffs. Take the Astros on the run line!