MLB Picks 8/16 – Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Picks 8/16 – Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Seattle Mariners (63-59) open a three-game set at the slumping Pittsburgh Pirates (56-64) tonight on Apple TV+. This is the only meeting of the season between Seattle and Pittsburgh. Seattle has won five of the last six against Pittsburgh dating back to 2019. The last time these teams squared off in Pittsburgh, Seattle ended up sweeping a three-game series in September 2019. Something will have to give tonight as both teams come in with losing streaks. 

Seattle is coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. They lost yesterday’s game 2-1 after Detroit shortstop Javy Baez hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning off of closer Andres Munoz. Munoz had not allowed a hit in a franchise-record 12 straight appearances prior to the Baez home run. Bryce Miller struck out nine over seven innings and gave up just two hits for Seattle. The Mariners only scored four runs in the three losses to the Tigers. Seattle lost the series opener 15-1 to Detroit.   

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter tonight’s game reeling as they’ve lost a season-high ten straight games and 12 of their last 13 games overall. They return home after going 0-6 on a West Coast swing through Los Angeles and San Diego. Pittsburgh lost 8-2 at San Diego in their last game on Wednesday night. Pittsburgh’s star young pitcher Mitch Keller gave up a season-high eight runs over five innings in the loss. San Diego also swept the Pirates in Pittsburgh prior to the winless West Coast road trip.

Tonight’s starters are Logan Gilbert (7-8, 2.91 ERA, 149 K’s in 24 starts) for Seattle and rookie All-Star Paul Skenes (6-2, 2.25 ERA, 115 K’s in 15 starts) for Pittsburgh.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Seattle +110,   Pittsburgh -130

Run Line: Seattle +1.5 (-220),   Pittsburgh -1.5 (+180)

Run Total: over 7 (-105)    under 7 (-115) 

MLB Picks 8/16 – Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates

GAME STORYLINES: SEATTLE

In 2022, the Seattle Mariners finished 90-72 and made a postseason appearance for the first time since 2001. The 21-year playoff drought was one of the longest in North American team history. The success of 2022 Mariners was ignited by the terrific play of then 21-year-old rookie center fielder Julio Rodriguez. He hit .284 with 28 homers and 75 RBI en route to being named the American League Rookie of the Year and an All-Star. Rodriguez had an even better second year hitting .275 with 32 homers and 103 RBI. He led Seattle in all three categories as the team finished 88-74 and narrowly missed out on making the playoffs. 

Seattle entered the 2024 season with high expectations due to the success of the last two seasons and Julio Rodriguez beginning his third season. Things were going very well for Seattle through the first couple months of the season as they sat at 44-31 on June 16 and were 10 games ahead of Houston and Texas – the previous 2 World Series champs – in the American League West division. 

A late-June swoon where Seattle lost 6 of 7 and 10 of 13 allowed Houston to catch Seattle in the AL West standings. Seattle getting swept at Detroit this week has now propelled Houston to a 3 game lead in the AL West. Seattle is in danger of missing the postseason for a second straight year if they do not win the division.

At the plate, Seattle is being led by catcher Cal Raleigh who is having a fantastic season. The third-year star is hitting .214 with 26 homers and 76 RBI through 115 games. He leads the team in homers and RBI, and will surpass his career-best total of 30 homers which he set last year. Raleigh has hit at least 25 homers in three straight seasons, he’s the first catcher to achieve this mark since Hall of Famer Mike Piazza did it for 8 straight years from 1995-2002. 

MLB Picks 8/16 – Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Outside of Cal Raleigh’s exploits, Seattle’s offense has been pedestrian mainly due to the slight dip in production from Julio Rodriguez (.263, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 18 steals in 103 games) this year. Utility outfielder Luke Raley’s 14 homers ranks second on the team. Seattle traded for Tampa Bay Rays power-hitting All-Star Randy Arozarena on July 26 to give their underachieving offense a boost. The 29-year-old All-Star Arozarena hit .211 with 15 homers and 37 RBI in 100 games with Tampa Bay. He’s hitting .271 with a homer and 5 RBI in 17 games with Seattle. 

GAME STORYLINES: PITTSBURGH

Ever since All-World outfielder Barry Bonds departed the Pittsburgh Pirates as a free agent in 1992, the franchise has been unable to win consistently or produce another player of his caliber. Pittsburgh missed the playoffs for 20 straight years after Bonds left. They’ve only made 3 postseason appearances since Bonds led them to the 1992 NLCS. 

Pittsburgh has been in dire need of a franchise-changing superstar for 30+ years now and it appears as if they’ve got it when they landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. The Pirates selected LSU ace Paul Skenes with that 1st pick. The 6-foot-6 Skenes was one of the most ballyhooed prospects in the history of the MLB draft after completing a stellar 2023 season at LSU. Skenes led LSU to the 2023 College World Series crown and was named the Most Outstanding Player of the tournament.

After a brief and dominant run through the Pirates minor league’s affiliates, Paul Skenes was promoted to the big-league club on May 11. He made his highly anticipated MLB debut on May 12 at home against the Chicago Cubs. Skenes struck out 7 and gave up 3 earned runs over 4 innings as he picked up a no decision. Skenes has gone on to have an exceptional rookie season and has exceeded the enormous expectations placed upon prior to the draft. Skenes is currently 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 115:20 K:BB through 15 starts as a rookie.

MLB Picks 8/16 – Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Paul Skenes was selected to participate in this year’s All-Star and was named the starting pitcher for the National League All-Stars. He became the first rookie to start the All-Star game since Hideo Nomo in 1995. He was also the first Pirates pitcher to start the All-Star game since Jerry Reuss in 1975. Skenes takes the mound tonight at home against Seattle and will look to end the Pirates 10-game skid. 

At the plate, Pittsburgh is led by the trio of left fielder Bryan Reynolds (.285, 19 HR, 69 RBI in 117 games), shortstop O’Neil Cruz (.261, 18 HR, 59 RBI in 107 games) and veteran outfielder (.235, 16 HR, 39 RBI in 100 games). The 29-year-old Reynolds leads the team in batting average, homers and RBI. He was named an All-Star this year for the second time in his career. The 25-year-old, third-year star Cruz has rebounded nicely from a fractured ankle that limited him to just 9 games last year. He was one of the MLB’s top rookies in 2022. 

The 37-year-old, 5-time All-Star Andrew McCutchen returned to Pittsburgh last year to wind down a fabulous career. He was drafted by Pittsburgh in the first round (No. 11 overall) of the 2005 draft and compiled 9 outstanding seasons with the team from 2009-2017. McCutchen is still a productive hitter for the Pirates in his 16th MLB season.

THE PICK: PIRATES (Moneyline)

Despite the 10-game skid for Pittsburgh, they’ve got one of the best pitchers in baseball taking the mound tonight in Paul Skenes. Seattle tends to struggle against upper-tier pitchers. Take the Pirates on the moneyline tonight!