MLB Picks 7/25 – Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins

MLB Picks 7/25 – Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins

The American League-East leading Baltimore Orioles (60-41) conclude a three-game set at the Miami Marlins (37-65) this afternoon at loanDepot park. Despite entering the series with 25 fewer wins than Baltimore, Miami has won the first two games by identical scores of 6-3. This is the only meeting of the season between these teams. 

In yesterday’s game, Miami outfielder Jazz Chisolm’s two-run double in the seventh inning broke a 3-3 tie. Left fielder Bryan De La Cruz added an RBI double later in the seventh inning that gave Miami a 6-3 lead which ended up being the final margin of victory.  First baseman Josh Bell hit a solo homer for Miami in the fourth inning, it was his 11th of the season. All-Star closer Tanner Scott picked up his 18th save of the season in the win. Miami has won four of six since the All-Star break.

Baltimore has now dropped three in a row and seven of their last ten games. They’ve also lost five straight interleague games. Despite their uneven play of late, Baltimore still holds a 1.5 game lead over the New York Yankees in the American League East and own the second-best record in the American League behind the Cleveland Guardians. Orioles rookie Colton Cowser went 2-for-2 with a bases-clearing double in the sixth inning that tied the game at three. 

Today’s starters are All-Star Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.38 ERA, 116 K’s in 20 starts) for Baltimore and rookie Roddery Munoz (1-5, 5.14 ERA in 10 starts) for Miami.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Baltimore -250,   Miami +200

Run Line: Baltimore -2.5 (+105),   Miami +2.5 (-125)

Run Total: over 8.5 (-110)     under 8.5 (-110)

GAME STORYLINES: BALTIMORE

From 2017-2021, the Baltimore Orioles were arguably the worst franchise in MLB, they bottomed out an MLB-worst 47-118 in 2018. During those years of futility, Baltimore made several excellent draft picks and developed those picks in their minor league system. This led to an astonishing turnaround that culminated with a 101-61 finish last season, which was the second-best record in MLB. Baltimore also won the ultra-competitive American League East for the first time since 2014. 

Baltimore’s tremendous 2023 season ended in disappointment as they were swept in their opening playoff series by the No. 5 seed Texas Rangers – who would go on the win the World Series – in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Despite the difficult end to the 2023 season, Baltimore improved exponentially and established themselves amongst the elite in MLB.

MLB Picks 7/25 – Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins

Baltimore did not stand pat after the great success of last season, they were aggressive in the offseason and added former Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes via trade from Milwaukee. The 29-year-old, three-time All-Star Burns had a stellar 6-year run in Milwaukee where he won the 2021 Cy Young Award and amassed 200+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 seasons with the team. Burns gives Baltimore the dominant ace they’ve lacked since Hall of Famer Mike Mussina in the mid to late 1990’s.

Corbin Burns has not disappointed in his debut season with the Orioles. In his first start against the Los Angeles Angels on Opening Day, Burns struck out 11 batters over 6 innings in an 11-3 win. Overall, Burns has produced a 10-4 record with a 2.46 ERA and a 116:29 K:BB in 20 starts. He was named an All-Star for the fourth time in his career this season. Burns gets the start this afternoon and will look end Baltimore’s 3-game skid.

At the plate Baltimore has a deep and talented lineup led by the quartet of shortstop Gunnar Henderson (.285, 28 HR, 63 RBI, 14 stolen bases in 100 games), right fielder Anthony Santander (.243, 27 HR, 66 RBI in 96 games), catcher Adley Rutschman (.269, 17 HR, 61 RBI) and third baseman Jordan Westburg (.270, 16 HR, 53 RBI in 94 games). All four guys were named All-Stars this season and each has hit 15+ homers. Baltimore is the only MLB team to have four guys with 15+ homers. Baltimore’s 157 homers leads MLB.   

MLB Picks 7/25 – Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins

Superstar shortstop Gunnar Henderson was the unanimous AL Rookie of the Year last season. The 22-year-old became the first Oriole to win the award since Gregg Olsen in 1989. Santander has led Baltimore in homers and RBI in each of the last two seasons. The 26-year-old Rutschman was selected No. 1 overall in the 2017 draft by Baltimore and has made two consecutive All-Star appearances. 

GAME STORYLINES: MIAMI

Last season, the Miami Marlins surprised many in the baseball world by finishing 84-77 and securing a playoff spot. It was the franchise’s first postseason bid – after a full season – since 2003 when they were the Florida Marlins and won the World Series. Their last winning season was in 2009 when they finished 87-75.  Unfortunately, things have taken a turn for the worse for Miami as they enter today’s game with the second-worst record in MLB at 37-65. 

Miami suffered a pair of huge losses in slugger Jorge Soler and hitting machine Luis Arraez from last year’s squad which has led to this disastrous 2024 season. Soler opted out of the final year of his contract with Miami to become a free agent after hitting 36 homers and 75 RBI last season. He signed a 3-year, $42 million contract with the San Francisco Giants in the offseason. Arraez was traded to the San Diego Padres on May 4. Arraez led the National League in batting last season with a .354 average. 

Despite the horrific record, Miami has received decent seasons from the trio of left fielder Bryan De La Cruz (.240, 17 HR, 46 RBI in 101 games), center fielder Jazz Chisolm Jr. (.251, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 21 stolen bases in 99 games) and first baseman Josh Bell (.232, 11 HR, 43 RBI in 100 games). The 27-year-old De La Cruz was a standout on last season’s team, along with departed Jorge Soler and Luis Arraez. His 78 RBI last year led the team. The 26-year-old speedster Chisolm has dealt with numerous injuries in his five seasons as a Marlin but he is a highly productive player when healthy. Chisom’s 99 games played this year has already surpassed the total number of games he played last year which was 97.

Closer Tanner Scott was Miami’s lone All-Star this season. The 30-year-old veteran has 18 saves, a 1.21 ERA and a 51:26 K:BB over 43 appearances. Scott has turned in 16 straight scoreless appearances and picked up saves in both wins against Baltimore. Scott could be moved at the July 30 trade deadline as he’ll be a highly coveted bullpen arm who could really help a contender. 

THE PICK: ORIOLES (Run Line)

I don’t think one of the better teams in baseball is going to get swept by one of the worst teams in baseball, especially when Baltimore has their All-Star ace making the start this afternoon. Take the Orioles on the run line!

MLB Picks 7/25 – Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins