MLB Picks 7/7 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

MLB Picks 7/7 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Boston Red Sox (48-40) conclude a three-game series on the road against the New York Yankees (55-36) tonight on ESPN. The long-time, heated rivals split the first two games of the series with Boston pulling out a miraculous 5-3 comeback win in ten innings on Friday night. New York avenged that loss with a 14-4 rout of Boston yesterday. Boston is 3-2 against New York this season. They won two of three at home against the Yankees last month. New York’s win yesterday snapped a four-game losing streak.

In Friday’s series opener, New York led 3-1 with two outs in the ninth inning. Struggling closer Clay Holmes then gave up a game-tying two-run homer to Masataka Yoshida on a 3-2 count. Red Sox rookie shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela led off the tenth inning with a two-run homer which provided the final margin of victory. Boston trailed 3-0 in the fifth inning. It was their fifth straight win and 15th win in their last 20 games.

MLB Picks 7/7 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

In yesterday’s game, Yankees rookie first baseman Ben Rice hit three homers and drove in seven runs in the 14-4 win. Rice became the first Yankee rookie to hit three homers in a game. He began the game with a leadoff homer in the bottom of the first inning and is the third rookie in MLB history with a 3-HR game out of the leadoff spot. Left fielder Alex Verdugo also homered for the Yankees against his former team and drew the ire of the Red Sox as he took 32 seconds to round the bases. New York had lost five straight games at home prior to yesterday’s win.

Tonight’s starters are Kutter Crawford (4-7, 3.47 ERA, 102 K’s in 17 starts) for Boston and rookie Luis Gil (9-4, 3.41 ERA, 102 K’s in 17 starts) for New York.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Boston +134,   New York -158

Run Line:    Boston +1.5 (-170)   New York -1.5 (+140)   

Run Total:  over 8.5 (-106)    under 8.5 (-114)    

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

In 2004, the Boston Red Sox broke the ‘Curse of the Bambino’ and won the World Series for the first time in 86 years. Since then, they’ve gone on to win three more World Series crowns in 2007, 2013 and 2018 and made numerous postseason appearances. When you consider the two decades of excellence for the franchise, the past two seasons have been very disappointing as Boston posted identical 78-84 records and finished last in the ultra-competitive American League East both years. Boston advanced to the ALCS in 2021. 

Inconsistent starting pitching and young prospects failing to come through at the plate are big reasons for the underachieving seasons in 2022 and 2023. Those issues have been somewhat resolved for Boston in 2024 as the four returning starting pitchers – Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta – are putting consistent seasons. Rookies Rafaela Ceddanne and Wilyer Abreu are having great seasons at the plate for Boston. 

Power-hitting third baseman Rafael Devers is posting another terrific season offensively for Boston. The 27-year-old star is batting .287 with 19 homers and 53 RBI through 76 games. He leads Boston in all three categories. Devers has led Boston in homers and RBI in each of the last four seasons. Devers homered and drove in two runs in yesterday’s loss to the Yankees. He now has 26 career homers against the Yankees. 

MLB Picks 7/7 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Outfielders Tyler O’Neill (.264, 16 HR, 30 RBI) and Jarren Duran (.278, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 24 doubles, 21 stolen bases), along with rookie center fielder Rafaela Ceddanne (.243, 10 HR, 49 RBI) are also having great seasons at the plate for Boston. The Red Sox acquired O’Neill from St. Louis via trade in the offseason last December. His 16 homers are already the second-most of his 8-year MLB career. The 27-year-old Duran is experiencing a breakout season in year four with his versatility offensively as a hitter and runner. The 23-year-old rookie Ceddanne leads all MLB rookies in homers and RBI.

When you look at the emergence of Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran and Rafaela Ceddanne along with the consistent starting pitching and the sustained excellence of Rafael Devers, Boston has a chance to establish themselves among the better teams in MLB during the second half of the season. Boston has gone 16-7 since June 8 and will likely end their 2-year postseason drought this season.  

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

After a shocking 2023 season that saw the mighty New York Yankees finish with a mediocre 82-80 record – the franchise’s worst mark since a 76-86 finish in 1992 – and miss the postseason for the first time since 2016, everyone knew big changes were coming. New York didn’t waste any time making those changes as they traded for 25-year-old superstar Juan Soto shortly after the MLB season ended in December. 

The three-time All-Star and 2019 World Series champion Juan Soto joined a Yankee lineup that was already elite prior to his arrival, so adding him was the equivalent of adding icing to the cake. Soto has been excellent in his first year wearing the pinstripes as he’s batting .295 with 21 homers, 63 RBI and an MLB-leading 76 walks. He’s on pace to surpass his career-high mark of 35 homers which he set last season with San Diego.

Juan Soto is set to become a free agent after the season which could potentially be a problem for New York considering Soto could command a long-term contract in the neighborhood of $600 million on the free agent market. If Soto continues to produce at a high level this year and the Yankees make a deep postseason run or win the World Series, it will be hard to just let him walk as a free agent. 

MLB Picks 7/7 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Superstar slugger Aaron Judge is back to his spectacular level of play this season. Injuries to his right hamstring and right toe caused him to miss 56 games last year. The 6-time All-Star and 2022 American League MVP Judge is hitting .312 with 32 homers, 83 RBI and 63 walks. He leads MLB in homers and RBI, and is sixth in batting average. Judge surpassed the 30-homer mark prior to the All-Star break for the third time in his career this season. 

New York has struggled of late after getting off to a blistering start. They had the best record in MLB at 51-24 on June 18 but have gone 4-12 since then. A possible reason for the Yankees recent struggles could be linked to the loss of slugger Giancarlo Stanton (.246, 18 HR, 45 RBI in 69 games). The oft-injured Stanton has not played since suffering a left hamstring strain against Atlanta on June 18. Stanton has been on the injured list 8 times over the last 6 seasons. If Stanton returns and remains healthy, the Yankees may be the favorites to win the World Series.  

Rookie Luis Gil takes the mound tonight for New York and will look to break out of his 3-game slump. After getting off to a blazing 9-1 start to the season, Gil has been in a freefall ever since. Gil has gone 0-3 with a 15.65 ERA in his last 3 starts. He’s given up 16 earned runs over 9.2 innings while the Yankees have been outscored 34-11 in those starts.

THE PICK: RED SOX (Moneyline)

Luis Gil has been awful over his last 3 starts and I don’t think he’ll be able to turn things around against a strong lineup like Boston. Take the Red Sox as a profitable underdog tonight!

MLB Picks 7/7 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees