NBA Playoff Picks 5/30 – Dallas Maveriks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA Playoff Picks 5/30 – Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Western Conference Finals continue tonight with the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks (50-32) visiting the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) in Game Five on TNT. Minnesota trails 3-1 after winning 105-100 at Dallas on Tuesday night and avoiding elimination. If Dallas wins tonight, they’ll go on the road to face the Boston Celtics in Game One of the NBA Finals starting on June 6. It would be Dallas’ first finals appearance since 2011 and their third overall in franchise history. Minnesota is a 4.5-point favorite and the total is 209.5. 

After trailing in the series 3-0, Minnesota staved off elimination by winning Game Four at Dallas 105-100 on Tuesday night. Anthony Edwards led Minnesota with 29 points (11-25 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 5-8 FT), 10 rebounds and 9 assists. He was Minnesota’s leader in all three categories. Karl-Anthony Towns chipped in with a series-high 25 points (9-13 FG, 4-5 3Pt, 3-3 FT) and 5 rebounds in 30 minutes before fouling out. Towns redeemed himself in Game Four after struggling with his three-point shooting through the first three games of the series. He went 4-5 from long distance in Game Four after going 3-22 in the first three games. 

Luka Doncic led Dallas with his second triple-double of the series finishing with 28 points (7-21 FG, 4-11 3Pt, 10-12 FT), 15 rebounds and 10 assists, along with a steal in 41 minutes. With Dallas trailing by six and 13 seconds left, Doncic knocked down a miraculous 29-foot three-point shot and was fouled. He then missed the free throw that could have brought Dallas within 2 at 103-101 and put a lot of pressure on Minnesota to secure the win. Daniel Gafford added 12 points (6-6 FG), 8 rebounds, 3 blocks and 1 steal in 31 minutes in the loss. 

NBA Playoff Picks 5/30 – Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington – Dallas’ second and third leading scorers in the postseason – shot a combined 9-31 from the floor in Game Four. Both players had been outstanding through the first three games against Minnesota. Irving was averaging 27.6 ppg on 52.5 percent shooting from the field in the first three wins of the series but scored 16 points on 6-18 shooting in Game Four. Washington closed with 10 points on 3-13 shooting from the field in Game Four.

Dallas was dealt a difficult blow when starting center Dereck Lively II suffered a sprained neck in the second quarter of Game Three after taking a knee to the back of the head from Karl-Anthony Towns as he fell to the ground. He remained down for several minutes and needed to be helped off the floor. He had six points, three rebounds and a block in 9 minutes before exiting the game with the injury. Lively was averaging 11.5 ppg and 10 rpg through the first two games against Minnesota. He missed Game Four and is questionable for tonight’s game.

This Dallas-Minnesota series is the first Conference Finals to have the first four games decided by single digits since 2011 when the Dallas Mavericks played the Oklahoma City Thunder. The 2011 Mavs led that series 3-1 and closed Oklahoma City out (100-96) in Game Five before going on to win the NBA title. We’ll see if the 2024 Mavs can follow suit. 

GAME STORYLINES: DALLAS

Twenty-nineteen turned out to be a pivotal year for the Dallas Mavericks franchise as it wound up being the final season of franchise icon Dirk Nowitzki – who retired after spending all 21 years of his NBA career with Dallas – and the rookie season of current Mavs franchise icon Luka Doncic. Doncic was also named the 2019 Rookie of the Year. It’s almost as if Dirk Nowitzki was passing the torch to his enormously talented understudy Luka Doncic during the 2018-19 season. Doncic took that torch from Dirk Nowitzki and has already had an extraordinary career with the Dallas Mavericks. 

In his 6 seasons with Dallas, Luka Doncic has made five All-Star teams and been named to the All-NBA First Team five times. He finished third in MVP voting this year behind Denver’s Nikola Jokic and Oklahoma City’s Shea Gilgeous-Alexander. The 25-year-old Doncic has also led Dallas to the Western Conference Finals twice and is 1 win away from leading Dallas back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2011. He’s on a similar Hall of Fame trajectory as Dirk Nowitzki was during the first six years of his career.

NBA Playoff Picks 5/30 – Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Luka Doncic just completed the best season of his stellar career this year when he finished the regular season averaging a league-leading and career-best 33.9 points per game, along with career-highs of 9.8 assists, 9.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 4.1 threes across 70 games. Doncic now holds five of the six highest ‘points per game in a season’ averages for a Mavs player. The other belongs to Mark Aguirre who averaged 28.8 ppg during the 1983-84 season which ranks third.

Despite being somewhat hobbled by left ankle soreness and a right knee sprain, Luka Doncic has been tremendous in the postseason. He’s averaging 28.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 1.6 steals and 3.2 threes through 15 postseason games. He’s also produced 6 triple-doubles in the playoffs. 

The decision to lock in Kyrie Irving to a 3-year, $126 million contract prior to the season, along with the February trade deadline acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford solidified Dallas as a title contender this season. The excellent play of Irving, Washington and Gafford have meshed perfectly with the superb all-around abilities of Luka Doncic. Athletic swingman Derrick Jones Jr. has also been an unsung contributor during the postseason.  

GAME STORYLINES: MINNESOTA

After making the decision to jettison superstar stalwart Kevin Garnett to the Boston Celtics in the summer of 2007, the Minnesota suffered through years of misery. They experienced 10 straight losing seasons (2008-2017) post Garnett and 13 losing seasons over the past 16 years. Minnesota nabbed forward Kevin Love with the No. 5 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft and he developed into a great player. Unfortunately, Minnesota was unable to build a winning team around Love and they eventually traded him to Cleveland in the summer of 2014.

Minnesota’s fortunes changed when they landed the No. 1 overall pick on two occasions in 2015 and 2020. They selected Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns in 2015 and Georgia’s Anthony Edwards in 2020. Both players quickly became All-Star level talents in the NBA which led to the franchise’s revival during Edwards second season in 2021-22 when Minnesota increased their win total by 23 games. Minnesota finished 46-36 in 2021-22 and earned the No. 7 seed in the playoffs.

NBA Playoff Picks 5/30 – Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Following the success of the 2021-22 season, Minnesota added three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert in July 2022. The addition of Gobert, along with the sustained excellence of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns ultimately led to the outstanding season the current Minnesota Timberwolves are now experiencing. Minnesota’s 56-26 record during the regular season was their most wins since the 2003-04 season when they won a franchise-record 58 games, finished as the No. 1 seed in the West, and advanced to the Western Conference Finals behind the heroics of regular season MVP Kevin Garnett. Minnesota is now in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since the Garnett-led 2004 team did it. 

The emergence of 22-year-old superstar Anthony Edwards is a big reason for Minnesota’s success. The two-time All-Star averaged a career-high 25.9 points per game, along with 5.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.3 threes on 46.1 percent shooting from the floor in 79 games during the regular season. Edwards has been even better in the postseason as he’s averaging 27.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.8 threes on 47.7 shooting through 15 games. He’s also scored over 40 points three times as he’s led Minnesota to series wins over the Phoenix Suns and their Big Three and the defending NBA Champion Denver Nuggets.

THE PICK: MAVERICKS (+4.5)

I don’t expect Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington to struggle again tonight, and Dallas has shown themselves to be the better team. I think they finish off Minnesota tonight and advance to the NBA Finals. Take the Points and the Mavs!

NBA Playoff Picks 5/30 – Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves