Baseball Picks 5/20 – Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals

Baseball Picks 5/20 – Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Baltimore Orioles (29-15) open a three-game series on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals (20-26) tonight at Busch Stadium. The teams last played a season ago with St. Louis taking two of three in Baltimore. The Orioles are coming off a 6-3 win against the visiting Seattle Mariners yesterday. Orioles ace Corbin Burns struck out 11 batters over six innings in the win, it was his second game with 11 strikeouts this season. St. Louis lost 11-3 to Boston at home yesterday. Boston hit three homers in the win. 

Tonight’s starters are Dean Kremer (3-3, 3.72 ERA, 47 K’s) for Baltimore and Sonny Gray (5-2, 3.05 ERA, 53 K’s) for St. Louis.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Baltimore -102,  St. Louis -116

Run Line: Baltimore -1.5 (+155),  St. Louis +1.5 (-188)

Run Total: over 8 (-104)  under 8 (-118)

GAME STORYLINES: BALTIMORE

Last season, the Baltimore Orioles were the surprise team in baseball as they increased their win total by 18 games and finished 101-61 which was the second-best record in MLB. They also won the ultra-competitive American League East division for the first time since 2014. Baltimore’s turnaround was pretty remarkable when you consider they finished an MLB-worst 52-110 in 2021. Baltimore has kept up their excellent play this season as they own one of the better records in MLB at 29-15. They are currently 2 games behind the first place New York Yankees in the AL East. 

The biggest reason for Baltimore’s impressive turnaround was the ascension of several home-grown players in shortstop Gunnar Henderson (.270, 15 HR, 31 RBI), catcher Adley Rutschman (.309, 9 HR, 28 RBI), first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (.258, 6 HR, 18 RBI), right fielder Anthony Santander (.210, 7 HR, 25 RBI) and third baseman Jordan Westburg (.295, 7 HR, 29 RBI). All 5 players were drafted and then developed through Baltimore’s minor league system during the club’s lean years from 2017-2021 when they were arguably the worst franchise in all of baseball. 

Baseball Picks 5/20 – Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals

Second-year star Gunnar Henderson has been Baltimore’s most productive hitter so far this season. The 22-year-old shortstop is tied for the MLB lead in homers with 15. Last season he was named the American League Rookie of the Year and became the first Oriole to win the award since reliever Gregg Olson in 1989. Henderson was also the first player in Oriole history to win the AL Rookie of the Year in unanimous fashion. Henderson has now homered in three straight games after connecting on his fifth leadoff homer in yesterday’s win against Seattle.

Baltimore made a significant addition in the offseason when they acquired former Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers via trade. The 29-year-old, three-time All-Star Burnes arrived in Baltimore with tremendous fanfare after an outstanding 6 seasons in Milwaukee. Burnes won the 2021 CY Young award and made the All-Star game and accumulated 200+ strikeouts in each of his last three seasons with Milwaukee. Burnes struck out 11 batters over 6 innings in his first start with Baltimore against the Los Angeles Angels on Mar. 28. 

GAME STORYLINES: ST. LOUIS

For the past four decades, the St. Louis Cardinals have been one of model franchises in MLB. They won the World Series three times – 1982, 2006 and 2011 – and have been fixtures in the postseason. So, last season’s 71-91 finish was a shocking development for such a storied franchise. Especially when you consider the Cardinals went 93-69 and won the National League Central division in 2022. The Cardinals 71-91 record in 2023 was their worst finish since 1990 when they went 70-92. The biggest reason for the failed season was pitching as their team ERA dropped by a full run from 3.79 in 2022 to 4.79 last season.

St. Louis attempted to revamp its starting pitching by adding a trio of veteran starters in 34-year-old Sonny Gray (5-2, 3.05 ERA), 36-year-old Kyle Gibson (3-2, 4.09 ERA) and 37-year-old Lance Lynn (1-2, 4.17 ERA). The veteran trio has produced solid results up to this point as the team’s ERA has improved slightly to 4.35 this year. The Cardinals still rank among the bottom half of MLB in most pitching categories but the they’ve been pretty good over the past week as the team has won 5 of their last 7 games. 

The three-time All-Star Sonny Gray has been the best of the newcomers as he leads St. Louis in wins, strikeouts and ERA. If Gray can maintain this pace, he has a chance to make the All-Star game with a fourth different team this season. Gray was named an All-Star last year with the Minnesota Twins. Kyle Gibson won a career-high 15 games with Baltimore last season, while Lance Lynn went 7-2 with the Los Angeles Dodgers after a midseason trade from the Chicago White Sox.

The Cardinals offense has been surprisingly pedestrian this year as perennial All-Stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have gotten off to uncharacteristically show starts. Both players have combined for just 7 homers this season after combining for 51 homers last year and 65 in 2022. If both sluggers can get things turned around and spark the offense, the Cardinals have a shot at winning the National League Central as no team has been able to separate themselves from the pack up to this point. Division-leading Milwaukee is just 8 games above .500 at 27-19.

A bright spot for the Cardinals offense has been the play of rookie shortstop Masyn Winn. After a brief stint with the team to end last season, the 22-year-old is batting .281 with 1 homer, 11 RBI, 6 doubles and 2 triples along with 7 stolen bases across 41 games as an everyday player. He’s currently on an 8-game hitting streak.

THE PICK: ORIOLES (MoneyLine)

Getting the better team – Baltimore – as the underdog is a great value play here. Take the Orioles on the moneyline tonight!

Baseball Picks 5/20 – Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals