MLB Picks 5/24 – San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

MLB Picks 5/24 – San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

The defending World Series champion Houston Astros (28-21) visit the Oakland A’s (10-42) tonight in the opener of a 3-game series. Houston swept three at home against Oakland last weekend and has won 9 of the last 10 against them. Oakland enters tonight’s game on an 8-game losing streak after last night’s 3-2 loss at Seattle. Tonight’s starters are rookie sensation Hunter Brown (4-1, 3.20 ERA) for Houston and James Kaprielian (0-4, 8.68 ERA) for Oakland.  

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Houston – 260, Oakland + 215

Run Line: Houston -1.5 (-154), Oakland +1.5 (+128)

Run Total: over 8.5 (-110)  under 8.5 (-110)

GAME STORYLINES

Last season the Houston Astros finished with a 106-56 record, the second-best mark in baseball and then went on to dominate the playoffs going 11-2 en route to their second World Series title in six years. Last season’s championship could be considered validation due to the cheating scandal surrounding the 2017 Houston Astros that resulted in multiple suspensions. After winning the NL West by 16 games in 2022, Houston got off to a surprisingly slow 20-19 start this season but a recent 8-game winning streak has them back in position to finish amongst the elite teams in baseball. 

Houston’s offense is led by the dynamic 1-2 punch of Yordan Alvarez (.297, 12 HR 46 RBI) and right fielder Kyle Tucker (.276, 7 HR 33 RBI). Alvarez leads the team in homers and RBI, and is a contender for AL MVP. Both players have hit 30+ homers in each of the last two seasons. Eight-time All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve broke his thumb in the World Baseball Classic back in March and missed the first 8 weeks of the season, he made his debut exactly one week ago against Oakland and has played in only 4 games. I’d expect Houston to really get going once Altuve is fully healthy.

24-year-old rookie Hunter Brown make his 10th start tonight for the Astros. His last start was on Saturday against these same Oakland A’s, Brown tossed 6 innings, struck out 9, gave up 1 earned run and had no walks in a no decision. Brown’s best outing this season came against the Tampa Bay Rays, the best team in baseball, Brown’s line in that game, 7 innings pitched, 2 hits, 0 earned runs and 8 strikeouts in a 1-0 win on April 26. 

In 2022, the Oakland A’s finished 60-102 which was their most losses since 1979. Things have gone off the rails again this year as they enter tonight’s game with a major-league worst 10-42 record and have lost 12 of their last 13 games. 10-42 is the fourth-worst start in major league history. Oakland also has the worst average home attendance in baseball. 

One of the few positives on the field for Oakland is the play of left fielder Brent Rooker, he’s hitting .268 with 11 homers and 32 RBI in his first season with Oakland. 24-year-old rookie leadoff man Esteury Ruiz has also emerged as a bright spot for Oakland batting .275 with 1 home run, 22 RBI and a league-leading 26 stolen bases. Ruiz has a good shot to break the AL rookie single-season stolen-base record of 66, which was set by Cleveland’s Kenny Lofton in 1992. 

The biggest reason for optimism with Oakland is a potential move to Las Vegas starting in 2025. Oakland reached a tentative agreement with Las Vegas politicians to build a potential 30,000 seat stadium on the Las Vegas strip that would open in time for the 2027 season. Las Vegas is home to Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate, the Las Vegas Aviators, making it a convenient move as they already have organizational operations in Vegas and could share the Aviators ballpark until the new stadium is ready. 

THE PICK 

Betting against the A’s is the gift that keeps on giving, take Houston on the run line! Another possible value bet is placing an in-game bet on Houston if Oakland takes the lead early in the game. This works for other big favorites too if you don’t want to wager the large moneyline number