NBA Playoffs Picks 5/18 – LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets

NBA Playoffs Picks 5/18 – LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets

by Thomas Quaynor – NBA analyst for Wannamakeabet.com

The Los Angeles Lakers face the Denver Nuggets in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals tonight on ESPN. Denver leads 1-0 after holding off the Lakers 132-126 on Tuesday night. It was the second highest scoring regulation conference finals game in NBA history, trailing a Detroit Pistons 145-119 win over Boston in 1987.  Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic had another monster game finishing with 34 points, 21 rebounds, 14 assists and 2 blocks, it was his sixth triple-double of the playoffs. Denver is a 5.5 point favorite and the total is 226.5.

This is the fourth postseason meeting between these franchises (1979, 1985, 2009, 2020), the Lakers won all four of those meetings, the latter three were all in the Western Conference Finals. Game 1 was just the second time Denver won the opening game of a series against the Lakers, they won the opener of the best-of-three series in 1979 but dropped the next two. 

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE

The Los Angeles Lakers started the season 2-10 and needed overtime to knock off the Minnesota Timberwolves to secure the 7 seed. Once in the playoffs though, the Lakers flipped the proverbial switch and a lot of the inconsistency they showed during the regular season disappeared. The Lakers opened their previous playoff series with hard fought Game 1 road wins at Memphis and Golden State which put the pressure on the higher seeded teams, the Lakers are also undefeated (7-0) at home in the playoffs. 

After missing 26 games due to injury in the regular season and playing a total of 76 games in 2021 and 2022, Anthony Davis has regained his dominant form in these playoffs. Davis is averaging 22.6 points, 13.8 rebounds and 3.2 blocks across 13 games. His rebounds and blocks are a postseason career high. Davis has had two 20-rebound games and three games with 5+ blocks in the postseason. His height advantage and post presence were glaring against undersized Memphis and Golden State, who had a very tough time rebounding and getting good looks inside the paint when Davis was on the floor.

Whether its age or a late February foot injury that sidelined him for about a month, 38-year-old LeBron James scoring numbers have gone down (28.9 to 23.6) in the postseason but he still uses his size to overpower smaller opponents in the paint and can still attack the rim from time to time. LeBron’s rebounds and blocked shots have gone up in the postseason as the Lakers did a terrific job limiting the offensive outputs of Memphis and Golden State in the first two rounds.

Unheralded second-year guard Austin Reeves has exploded onto the scene in the postseason. Reeves joined the Lakers as an undrafted free agent in 2021. Injuries to Anthony Davis and LeBron along with a mid-season roster turnover allowed Reeves to establish himself as a key rotation player whether he was starting or coming off the bench. Reeves averaged 13 ppg during the regular season and has raised it to 16 ppg in the postseason. He’s also shooting 41.7 percent from three and has scored over 20 points five times for the Lakers. 

Things were looking up for the Denver Nuggets after making a surprising run to the 2020 Western Conference Finals at the Orlando bubble and losing to the Lakers in 5 games. Season-long injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. resulted in quick playoff exits in 2021 and 2022. The return of both players to full strength, along with the continued dominance of two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has resulted in Denver finishing with the best record in the Western Conference at 53-29 and the chance to make the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. Denver beat a scrappy Minnesota Timberwolves team 4-1 in the first round and then knocked off the 4 seed Phoenix Suns 4-2 in the second round, they closed out that series with a crushing 125-100 at Phoenix, Denver led by 30 points at halftime in the win. 

Back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic is putting together one of the most spectacular postseason runs in NBA history by averaging 31.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, 10.1 assists and 1 steal across 12 games. If Denver wins the title and Jokic maintains this level of play, he’ll catapult himself among other elite championship centers such as Shaquille O’Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon, Bill Walton, Wilt Chamberlain, Tim Duncan, Bill Russell and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, all of whom put up astronomical numbers en route to winning NBA Championships. Guard Jamal Murray has been a tremendous sidekick for Jokic in the postseason, he’s averaged 26.3 points, 6.3 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 1.4 steals.

THE PICK

I don’t think the Lakers can defend Denver at all and will have trouble winning two games in the series…lay the 5.5 with Denver!