MLB Picks 5/16 – Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets

MLB Picks 5/16 – Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets

The Tampa Bay Rays (31-11) continue their extended stay in New York as they face the Mets (20-22) tonight in the opener of a 3-game series. Tampa Bay split a 4-game set with the Yankees at Yankee Stadium over the weekend, while the Mets are coming off a 4-game split at Washington. Tonight’s starting pitchers are Jalen Beeks (1-2, 5.40 ERA) for Tampa and the venerable Justin Verlander (1-1, 2.25 ERA) for New York.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Tampa Bay +142, New York -168

Run Line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-137), New York-1.5 (+122)  

Run Total: over 8.5 (-108)  under 8.5 (-114)

GAME STORYLINES

The Tampa Bay Rays opened the 2023 season with 13 straight wins and have remained baseball’s top team through the quarter mark of the season. Tampa has a major-league best +120 run differential and also leads all of baseball in homers (81), RBI (249) and ERA (3.26) so they can outslug you and outpitch you.

Tampa boasts a deep, hard-hitting lineup highlighted by the trio of 22-year-old shortstop Wander Franco (.301 7 HR 23 RBI 12 SB), left fielder Randy Arozarena (.320 10 HR 35 RBI) and first baseman Yandy Diaz (.321 10 HR 24 RBI). Franco’s combination of hitting for average/power, speed and gold glove-level defense makes him a frontrunner for AL MVP at just 22. Arozarena and Diaz could also emerge as AL MVP candidates. Tampa also trots out a duo that shares the same last name and the same run-producing game but are not related in second baseman Brandon Lowe (7 HR, 22 RBI) and right fielder Josh Lowe (.306 9 HR 28 RBI). Starting pitcher Shane McClanahan anchors the staff, he’s undefeated at 7-0 with a 2.34 ERA.

The New York Mets enter tonight’s game with a disappointing 20-22 record. That’s a far cry from last season’s 101-61 finish, which was their most wins since 1988. Slow starts and inconsistency from several highly paid players (Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte) has contributed to the underwhelming record. Depending on two starting pitchers who are over the age of 38 may also be problematic for the Mets. 

Superstar first baseman Pete Alonso has been a bright spot for the Mets as he’s leading the majors in homers with 13, and has driven in 31 runs. Alonso has picked up where he left off last year when he hit 40 homers and delivered a career-high 131 RBI.  Alonso holds the Mets record for home runs in a season when he hit 53 in 2019 as a rookie. 

40-year-old future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander takes the mound for New York tonight. He’s making just his third start after beginning the year on the injured list with a muscle strain. The 9-time All-Star and reigning Cy Young Award winner signed a 2-year deal with the Mets in the offseason in hopes of winning a third and possibly fourth World Series ring. 

Verlander reunites with former teammate Max Scherzer, the pair formed a dynamic 1-2 punch for 5 seasons (2010-2014) with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit made 4 consecutive playoff appearances with Scherzer and Verlander anchoring the staff, advancing to the World Series in 2012. Detroit has not sniffed the postseason since Scherzer left as a free agent following the 2014 season.

THE PICK

The best team in baseball is an underdog, that looks like great value to me…take Tampa Bay!!