College Football Playoff Preview: New Colors on New Year’s Eve

College Football Playoff Preview: New Colors on New Year’s Eve

By Gabriel Rauch – college football analyst for wannamakeabet.com

In a couple years, the playoffs will change forever, and the four-team format fans have gotten accustomed to will cease to exist. Starting as early as 2024, there will be a twelve-team playoff: a more traditional, pro-style playoff format. Football will likely be better, fanbases will be happier, and teams that were discarded from the playoffs before the season started (due to media bias) will have a chance to prove themselves. Teams like TCU this year, who needed to have an unprecedented season just to get in, will actually have a shot every year. Michigan will be able to make it without beating Ohio State; and even a second-rate Alabama team will make it, no matter what. 

But with great change on the horizon, we will also lose something: the exclusivity of college football. But is this a bad thing? Probably not, but one thing is for certain: it won’t be as important to make the college football playoffs from 2024 on. So do not take this year and next year for granted, because just like when the format was changed from two teams to four, an exclusive group will get left behind. This is why TCU this year, Cincinnati last year, and Michigan two years in a row are so significant; they are now one of us; the ones who overcame the good ol boys club of the Alabama Invitational (the same teams we see in the playoff every year) and proved that they belong. 

#3 TCU vs #2 Michigan, 4PM EST, ESPN

For the second year in a row, we have new colors in the playoff as the one score game kings TCU have made it after a historic season. They face Michigan, who are making the playoffs for the second straight year and ready to prove themselves in the same sentence as other perennials in the competition. The current spread has Michigan favored by 7.5, a tricky spread and one where it is always good to buy a half point one way or another just to be safe. This game is a football matchup we have seen many times in big games: a dominant team (Michigan) trying to suffocate the gritty, never back down team (TCU). Michigan wants a quick two TD lead they can sit on and play man-run-it-down-your-throat football, while TCU would like this game to be tied going into the fourth quarter. 

Michigan has not faced a player like TCU quarterback Max Duggan all year, a true dual-threat player so it’s hard to say how their defense will handle him. Max Duggan will do Max Duggan things, and will will his team to touchdowns in this game. However, the real mismatch here will be Michigan’s offense led by JJ McCarthy, which is scarily similar to Kansas State’s offense, the team that has given TCU the most problems this season and probably should have beat them twice. TCU’s offense is dynamic but they still have a Big 12 defense that will get exposed. They may score some points against Michigan, but Michigan will score a lot more.

The Pick: Michigan -7.5 

#4 Ohio State vs #1 Georgia, 8PM EST, ESPN

Veteran teams of the playoff kick off the late game where the physical juggernaut Georgia is a 6 point favorite, facing an Ohio State team that struggles against physical teams (shown by the ass-kicking Michigan gave them). Georgia might have convinced fans to take them lightly as they have let lesser SEC teams keep it close this year, but make no mistake, they take the other big dogs seriously, shown by the extremely one-sided wins over Tennessee and LSU.

If Georgia sees you as a threat, they will treat you as one. Ohio St does have a better offense than Georgia has seen all year even without Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and their defense got plenty of practice to prepare against Georgia when they played Michigan earlier this season. But can a team really prepare for a disparity in physical talent?

On paper, Georgia wins this game 8 times out of 10. So why should you as a gambler, even entertain any other outcome besides a Georgia shit pumping? Because the bookmakers are. Six points is a shockingly low spread for a matchup where on paper one team looks much better than the other, which makes this look like a trap line. The vast majority of gamblers are taking Georgia to win and cover and the vast majority of gambles do not usually win.

This begs the question, is there a real reason to bet on Ohio State besides the trap line? The only guess that makes sense is that Ohio State will have a great game plan against a team very similar to a Michigan team they played last. Ohio State will not be blindsided by a physical team this time, and should gameplan around CJ Stroud getting the ball out fast against Georgia’s dominant defensive line. If they can catch a slightly unbalanced Georgia team on an off night, Ohio State can actually pull off the upset. Remember before you pick, this analysis is based on what looks like a trappy line, so if Georgia wins 49-14 don’t blame me for trusting the sportsbook. 

Pick: Ohio St +6

Just for fun, here’s a couple extra bowl game picks!

#5 Alabama vs #11 Kansas State, 12PM EST, ESPN

Do not let name bias fool you, Alabama is only favored by seven over a Big 12 team for a reason: Alabama is not the same well coached team as usual. They have a defense that has been sliced through multiple times this year, and the most penalized team Nick Saban has coached in a long time. Kansas State has a dynamic offense that could easily be where TCU is right now, winning a very tough conference championship. Majority of bets will be on Alabama because casual betters will say “Alabama is playing some random Big 12 team, easy money!” These teams are much closer than one might think. Don’t be a sucker. 

Pick: Kansas State +7

#14 Tulane vs #8 USC

Similar to the last game, there is a household name, a college football blue-blood in USC is a small favorite (-1.5) against a team most of America probably has not seen play in Tulane.   Make no mistake, USC is very good and was a one point Utah loss earlier in the season from likely being in the playoff, and they have a very motivated Caleb Williams still pissed about missing out on the playoff. What USC also has is a defense that absolutely cannot tackle to save their life, matched up against a Tulane offense that was on fire to end the season, with star running back Tyjae Spears, who is as good as any in the country. USC may have the Heisman winner, but they still have to play defense, and their defense is miles behind where it needs to be to contend for the playoffs, let alone stop Tulane. 

Pick: Tulane +1.5