The NBA has made Christmas Day its own in recent seasons, and NBA bettors will be treated to a five-game marathon again this year. Let’s take a look at a few of these marquee matchups and what we might expect.
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Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors
The Christmas Day card opens at the home of the defending champion Toronto Raptors, who take on division rival Boston at noon. The major storyline for this game is the raft of injuries that both teams are dealing with.
The Celtics will be without Marcus Smart and Robert Williams. Williams has provided size to a Celtics team in desperate need of a front-court presence. That said, while the offense is marginally better with Williams on the floor, opponents’ offensive rating is 10.5 points higher when Williams is in the lineup.
Marcus Smart’s absence is even more important to the Celtics. In addition to being the team’s best passer, Smart is one of the best defensive players in the league. His amazing ability to defend all five positions as a guard is a big part of what makes the Celtics’ defense versatile.
Smart being sidelined seriously reduces the margin of error for this Boston team. Gordon Hayward is likely to play in Toronto, but has missed the last three games. It’s hard to know what kind of production to expect from Hayward, who may well be eased back into action.
The injury story is far more devastating for the Raptors. Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, and Norman Powell will all miss out. Siakam is easily the biggest loss. Toronto’s new franchise player is seventh in the NBA in real plus-minus and is the team’s top scorer. In the teams’ first meeting this season, Siakam put up 33 points on 11-for-22 shooting.
t’s hard to see Toronto having a reliable primary option against a solid Celtics defense. Powell has provided needed depth at the wing position, and his absence will be felt that much more given that Toronto will be playing its third game in four nights. Defensively, the combination of losing both Siakam and Gasol could be the biggest obstacle to success for the Raptors in this matchup.
Toronto ranks ninth in the NBA in pick and roll defense, surrendering only 0.83 PPP. Effective defense in that action could be critical against a Boston team that ranks second in the league in pick and roll offense. The Celtics are scoring 1.026 PPP in this action, as a bevy of quality guards, wings, and ball-handlers allows for a ton of options in this offense.
Boston has four players who will suit up for this one who rank in the 80th-percentile or above in points per possession running the pick and roll. The Raptors pick and roll defense is usually headlined by Siakam and Gasol, who rank in the 90th and 89th-percentile league-wide in points per possession allowed in this action. This appears to be a massive matchup advantage for the Celtics, who are 3-0 SU and ATS over the last three and are second in the league with a net rating of +17.0 in that span. Tough to look past the Celtics here.
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
The first of the day’s two marquee matchups tips off in Philadelphia at 2:30 PM, and many NBA observers believe this is an Eastern Conference Finals preview. While the 76ers are currently fifth in a crowded top-half of the Eastern Conference standings, there’s little doubt that these are the two most likely teams to go on a deep playoff run.
Milwaukee has simply been staggering to start the season. Since a 2-2 start to the year, the Bucks have reeled off 25 of 27. This has included wins against some of the league’s best teams. Milwaukee has already defeated Houston, Toronto, and the Lakers. The team has also bested the Pacers and Clippers twice. Nobody is playing better than Milwaukee, both for the season, and currently. Over the last three games, the Bucks lead the league with a ridiculous net rating of +18.2.
That said, the fact that Philadelphia has home-court advantage may be something of an equalizing factor. While the Bucks have been the best road team in the NBA, going 12-2 SU with a net rating of +11.3, the 76ers have been dominant in their own building. The team is 15-2 SU and have a net rating of +9.4. When you compare that with a road net rating of -2.0, it becomes clear that Philadelphia is a completely different beast on its home floor.
Despite that, it’s almost impossible to bet against Giannis Antetokounmpo, especially in games like these. The defending MVP appears to be on a mission, and seems to revel in the opportunity to take down the league’s best. In a 111-104 victory over the Lakers on Thursday, the Freak was just undeniable. He scored 34 points in only 32 minutes, to go along with 11 boards and seven assists, while shooting 11-for-19 from the floor.
Most frighteningly, he connected on 5-of-8 three pointers. Last season, Giannis was absolutely incredible against Philadelphia. The Bucks went 2-1 against their conference rival, and Antetokoumpo averaged 43.3 PPG, 15.7 RPG, and 7.7 APG. Now, Philadelphia faces him for the first time since he has established a reasonable shot from distance.
Giannis is shooting 34.2% from the three-point line, up from 25.6% last season. Philadelphia had no answer for Antetokounmpo when he wasn’t a threat from beyond-the-arc, so it seems unlikely they’ll be able to contain him, especially with how unfamiliar his ability to shoot from outside will be to the 76ers. Giannis clearly believes this is his league now, and we should see a very motivated MVP on one of the biggest days on the league calendar.
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
The biggest game of the day starts at 8:00 PM and features the two teams who dominated the summer, and appear to be on a crash course to meet in the playoffs. While both of these title contenders have had very good starts to the season, they’ve faced a bit of turbulence recently.
The Lakers still lead the West with a 24-6 record, but have lost three straight games against Indiana, Milwaukee, and Denver. The team has a season net rating of +7.1, good for fourth in the league. However, over the last three games, the Lakers’ net rating has plummeted to -11.4. There should be a touch of concern that the Lakers are a bit of a paper tiger. Against teams in the top 11 in NBA net rating, the Lakers are 3-6 SU.
Against the rest of the league, the Lakers are 21-0. From a betting perspective, the numbers are troubling. The team is 2-7 ATS in these games. The public perception of a Lebron and Anthony Davis-led Lakers team is very strong, and the lines in these games have likely been too low partly because of the team’s success against the league’s lesser clubs.
In the opening game of the season, these two teams squared off, and the Clippers won by ten as a 3.5-point underdog. That sort of result has become something of a trend for the Lakers against fellow contenders.
The Clippers, meanwhile, have shown glimpses of their vast potential since Paul George returned from injury. There are stretches where the team looks brutishly unstoppable on both ends of the floor. There was a 150-point night in a destruction of Washington, a 25-point road blowout against Kawhi’s former San Antonio team, and a 15-point win on the road against a surging Dallas team. A twenty-point romp against Kawhi’s other former employer, Toronto, in his first game back in Canada was a serious statement of intent.
However, after a 13-2 SU run that started to show what this team could be, the Clippers have hit a bit of a rut. They are 2-3 SU and ATS, with bad road losses to Chicago and Oklahoma City. In fairness, though, those defeats came without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup, as the Clippers continue to treat him with a great degree of caution. The team is 10-3 SU with both superstars in the lineup. The three losses came against Houston, away to Milwaukee, and in a revenge game spot for San Antonio in front of its home crowd.
Lebron James is probable for this game, but how much he can bring to this one remains to be seen. He is, however, absolutely critical to any chance for success the Lakers may have in this spot.
Lebron remains as valuable as ever, as evidenced by the 128-104 home defeat the Lakers suffered at the hands of Denver with Lebron sidelined. The truth is that the Lakers’ success is pretty fragile, and wholly dependent on their dynamic duo. Without James, the team is just Anthony Davis and a mediocre supporting cast. However, even with James in the lineup, the motivation angle is probably still slightly with the Clippers.
Kawhi and Paul George are desperate to supplant Los Angeles’ premier franchise. That process began opening night, with a convincing victory, while George watched from the sidelines. Now sharing the floor, these two MVP candidates will want to put down a marker here, with the entire NBA world looking on.
Stay tuned to our blog all season long for more NBA betting predictions.