MLB Picks 4/28: Tigers @ Braves

Division leaders square off tonight as the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers (15-14) open a three-game series on the road against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves (20-9) in an interleague battle at Truist Park on TBS. This is the only regular season matchup between the clubs. Atlanta has dominated Detroit winning 8 straight head-to-head meetings. The Tigers last win against the Braves occurred in June 2023.

Both teams had the day off yesterday.

Prior to tonight’s contest, Atlanta took two of three against division rival Philadelphia at home in a weekend series. They’ve won four of their last five. Meanwhile, Detroit dropped two of three against the Cincinnati Reds on the road.

Tonight’s starters are Casey Mize (2-1, 2.51 ERA, 32 strikeouts in 5 starts) for Detroit and veteran Martin Perez (1-1, 2.70 ERA, 14 strikeouts in 3 starts and 2 relief appearances) for Atlanta.

Moneyline: Detroit (+102),  Atlanta (-122)

Run Line: Detroit -1.5 (+153), Atlanta +1.5 (-186)

Run Total: over 9 (-115), under 9 (-105)

Two years ago, the Detroit Tigers were heading for their seventh straight losing season and tenth straight non-playoff season. But a 31-13 finish to the 2024 season flipped their record from 55-63 to 86-76. They earned a playoff berth for the first time since 2014. They followed that up with an 87-75 finish last year.

Detroit has made consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since the 2013 and 2014 seasons when they won their third and fourth straight AL Central division crowns. The impetus for Detroit’s turnaround was the emergence of starting pitcher Tarik Skubal. The then-27-year-old Skubal developed into arguably the MLB’s best pitcher by winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2024 and 2025.

Expectations were high for the Detroit Tigers entering the 2026 season with reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal returning and the Tigers aiming for a third consecutive postseason appearance. They began the year as a +120 favorite to win the AL Central division.

Detroit made two significant additions in the offseason which also boosted their expectations. The first was signing starting pitcher Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 deal in February. The 32-year-old, two-time All-Star and World Series champion is expected to give the Tigers one of the best top of the rotation units in MLB alongside Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. He compiled an 81-52 record in his 8 seasons with the Houston Astros. Valdez has also been durable starting at least 28 games for four straight seasons as a member of the Astros.

The second significant roster addition for Detroit was the highly-anticipated debut of 21-year-old rookie shortstop Kevin McGonigle. The Tigers selected McGonigle in the first round (37th overall) of the 2023 MLB Draft out of Monsignor Bonner & Archbishop Prendergast Catholic High School in Pennsylvania. After two dominant seasons in Single-A and then Double-A ball, Detroit announced that McGonigle made the Opening Day roster.

Kevin McGonigle was superb in his Opening Day MLB debut on March 26, 2026 at San Diego, collecting four hits and driving in 2 runs in an 8-2 victory. He’s the 21st player in MLB history to register four hits in his MLB debut. He’s also the sixth to do it on opening day. For the year, the 21-year-old phenom is batting .330 with 2 homers, 12 RBI and 11 doubles through 28 games.

Detroit rewarded Kevin McGonigle’s impressive start by signing him to an eight-year, $150 million contract extension on April 15. The deal includes a $14 million signing bonus. McGonigle has the potential to be Detroit’s best offensive player since Miguel Cabrera, who hit 373 homers and won back-to-back MVP’s (2012 and 2013) in his 16 seasons with Detroit from 2008-2023.

Tonight’s starter Casey Mize experienced a breakout campaign last season, finishing 14-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 139:36 K:BB in 28 starts. After being selected No. 1 overall in the 2018 MLB Draft and making it to the majors in 2020, Mize had an up-and-down first four years until he performed like an All-Star last season in year five.

Casey Mize is off to an excellent start this season as he’s worked at least 5.2 innings while giving up 1 or no runs in four of his first five outings to start the year. He’s recorded 7 strikeouts in each of his last 2 starts.

From 2018-2023, the Atlanta Braves won 6 straight NL East division crowns behind a star-studded hitting lineup and tremendous pitching. The Braves slipped to second place in 2024 as ace Spencer Strider (Tommy John surgery) and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. (torn ACL) suffered season-ending injuries in April and May, respectively. Both injuries lingered into last season as Strider and Acuna Jr. made their debuts in May.

After starting 2025 season 0-7, with superstars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider on the injured list, the Braves found themselves in an uphill climb to surpass the .500 mark. They finished 76-86 and missed the postseason for the first time since 2017. Faulty pitching also doomed the Braves in 2025.

It appeared as if the Braves 2026 season would get off to an ominous start when ace Spender Strider suffered a left oblique (stomach) strain during a Spring Training outing in March. He was placed on the injured list to start the year. But the absence of Strider has not deterred the Braves in 2026 like it did a year ago, as the Braves have gotten off to a terrific 20-9 start.

Atlanta’s resurgent starting pitching staff is a big reason for their magnificent start. The trio of 37-year-old, 9-time All-Star Chris Sale (5-1, 2.31 ERA, 38 strikeouts in in 6 starts), Bryce Elder (3-1, 1.95 ERA, 31 strikeouts in 6 starts) and Grant Holmes (2-1, 3.62 ERA, 25 strikeouts in 6 starts) have been fantastic. Sale has found the fountain of youth in his 3 seasons with Atlanta, winning his first Cy Young Award at age 35 in 2024 and delivering a monster campaign through the early portion of 2026.

With ace Spencer Strider nearing a return, Atlanta’s pitching staff should be even stronger. Strider made his third rehab start with Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday and struck out 7 batters over 5 innings. He could return for Atlanta’s next series at Colorado over the weekend that begins on May 1.

At the plate, the Braves boast one of the deepest and most potent lineups in MLB. First baseman Matt Olson (.296, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 12 dbls in 29 gms), second-year star catcher and 2025 NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin (.311, 7 HR, 25 RBI in 29 gms) and outfielder Michael Harris II (.323, 6 HR, 20 RBI in 27 gms) are the standouts so far this season. The lineup will likely be even more imposing when Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley get going.

Atlanta is now tied with the defending World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers for the MLB’s best record at 20-9, while the Philadelphia Phillies (9-19) and New York Mets (9-19) — the 2 teams who were projected to finish ahead of the Braves in the National League East — are off to horrendous starts this season, the Braves could find themselves way ahead of everyone in the division very soon. Atlanta is the only team above .500 in the NL East.

I expect Atlanta to continue their mastery of Detroit and beat them for the 9th straight time tonight at home. Take Atlanta on the Money Line!