The Weekly NFL Contrarian

By Ryan Somers – Wannamakeabet.com Staff Writer

One long term profitable strategy I use is to fade the public. So, I look at any teams getting less than 45% of the spread tickets based on numerous Vegas books as well as offshore books. This week we have some very interesting matchups pitting the public vs the sharps. So let’s get to it!

NY Giants +10.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs

Let’s start out by saying that Andy Reid might be the best coach in football coming off the bye. His record off the bye is 16-2. Kansas City has cooled off considerably since their hot start to the season. In their first 5 games they had a success rate of 51% which was 5th in the league. Since Week 6 they have had an offense success rate of 40% which is in the bottom third of the league. Now on to the NY football Giants. I don’t really have any stats to show you that they have actually improved throughout the year. They are just a team riddled with injuries and playing for pride, but there are some things I like about their situation. First off, they are home underdogs, which I am always a fan of. On top of that they are getting 26% of the bets, but the line has moved down 2 points since it opened. With the reverse line movement it tells me a lot of Sharp Money aka big bets are on the Giants. So, give me the 10.5 points and the home team in this matchup.

Cleveland Browns +7.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Who thinks Blake Bortles is good at football? I don’t. The one way to beat the Browns is through the air, not on the ground. This plays to the advantage of the Cleveland Browns. How many times have you heard that this year. As long as this line sits above a touchdown, I will put some serious dollars on the winless Browns this week! Who is with me?? Jacksonville is getting 70% of the bets but the line started at -9 and has dropped all the way to -7.5 for Jacksonville. Just like the Giants/Kansas City game there is some serious reverse line movement for the Browns. As of Thursday night at the William Hill Sportsbook the Browns were getting 52% of the money vs the spread despite only getting 30% of the bets. Eventually they have to win a game right? I think it might be this weekend!




Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys +5

Wow, did the Cowboys team look bad last week, especially that offense line! Doesn’t look like it is going to get any better this week with Tyron Smith looking like he will miss this game as well. So the Cowboys will be missing their all pro offensive tackle, their star running back Zeke Elliott, and their defensive leader linebacker Sean Lee. So, Eagles blowout win??!! I don’t think so my friends!! One of the most profitable scenarios is to always go against a small road favorite. That’s exactly what we have here. Even though Philadelphia is getting 83% of the bets and 93% of the money I believe the entire Dallas team will play a lot better at home, especially that offensive line in a Prime Time game vs a division rival.

 

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