MLB Picks 8/23 – Blue Jays @ Yankees

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Two long-time division rivals conclude a three-game set this afternoon as the Toronto Blue Jays (64-67) visit the New York Yankees (73-56) at Yankees Stadium. This will be the final meeting of the year between the American League East adversaries. They’ve split the first two games of the series with the Yankees coming away with a 3-1 win on Friday night, and Toronto holding on for a 4-3 victory yesterday. The season series is also tied at six games apiece.

There’s a slight chance that New York and Toronto could meet in the postseason for a second straight year if Toronto can secure the final Wild Card spot. Toronto eliminated New York in the divisional round of the playoffs (3-1) last year.  

Today’s starting pitchers are trade deadline acquisition Jose Soriano (10-6, 3.23 ERA, 136 strikeouts in 25 starts) for Toronto and Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.22, 56 strikeouts in 10 starts) for New York.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Toronto (+120),   New York (-129)

Run Line: Toronto +1.5 (-186),   New York -1.5 (+153)

Run Total: over 7.5 (-117),   under 7.5 (-109)

GAME STORYLINES: TORONTO

Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays produced one of their finest seasons in decades when they finished with the best record in the American League at 94-68 and advanced to the World Series for the first time since 1993. They came up just short of winning the World Series, falling to the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 in a captivating series. Toronto’s 94 wins was their most since 1993, when they won 95 games and captured their second of back-to-back World Series crowns. 

The Blue Jays improved their record by 20 games last year, going from 74-88 in 2024 to 94-68 last year. Toronto rode the wave of an unexpected mid-season turnaround that saw them close out the regular season with a 68-40 mark after sitting at just 26-28 through the end of May. Along the way, Toronto overtook and wrestled away the American League East crown from the New York Yankees, and then eliminated the Yankees 3-1 in the divisional (2nd) round of the playoffs.

After amassing such a superb 2025 season, the Toronto Blue Jays allowed star shortstop Bo Bichette to walk as a free agent even though he spent his entire 7-year MLB career with the Blue Jays. He made 2 All-Star appearances (2021, 2023) with the Blue Jays. Bichette signed a three-year, $126 million deal with the Mets. It was rumored that Bichette desired to play in the United States over Canada. 

Despite losing its long-tenured star shortstop Bo Bichette as a free agent, Toronto added a pair of highly-regarded free agents in standout starting pitcher Dylan Cease (7-year, $210 million) and Japanese star infielder Kazuma Okamoto (4-year, $60 million). The additions of an ace starting pitcher (Cease) and a power-hitting bat (Okamoto) were expected to trump the loss of Bichette. 

Unfortunately, the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays have not been able to duplicate the tremendous success of last season because of injuries to key contributors (George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger) and a down year for perennial All-Star slugger Vlad Guerrero Jr., who only has 7 homers in 116 games. 

Dylan Cease (8-5, 2.37 ERA, 209 strikeouts in 24 starts) and Kazuma Okamoto (.230, 26 HR, 74 RBI)  have been magnificent in their debut seasons with Toronto. The prolific production from both players has kept Toronto somewhat afloat during the season. The Blue Jays would be a lot worse without them. 

With Toronto 5-10 games below .500 for much of the season, they became sellers at the Aug. 3 trade deadline. The Blue Jays dealt starting outfielder Dalton Varsho (to HOU), along with starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (to CHC) and reliever Jeff Hoffman (to MIN) in deals that netted them a total of 10 players. Toronto did add a pair of starters in 27-year-old Jose Soriano (from LAA) and 34-year-old veteran Jameson Taillon (from CHC) to boost their mediocre pitching staff.

Jose Soriano will make his fourth start for Toronto today against the Yankees. He’s 1-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 9 strikeouts over those 3 starts. Toronto has won all three of his starts. Soriano has surrendered 3 runs or fewer in 8 straight starts, which goes back to his time with the Los Angeles Angels. He’s slotted into a reliable No. 2 starter behind superstar ace Dylan Cease for the Blue Jays. 

Despite spending the entire season under .500, Toronto still finds themselves just a half game behind the Texas Rangers (64-66) for the final Wild Card spot. Outside of Tampa Bay (76-53) and New York (73-56), the entire American League has been so-so. 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

The powerhouse New York Yankees entered the 2026 season with its usual high expectations after posting back-to-back 94-68 seasons in 2024 and 2025. They returned the overwhelming majority of last year’s top-tier team — including reigning back-to-back American League MVP Aaron Judge — and welcomed back veteran ace Gerrit Cole (the 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner), who missed the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery.

The Yankees opened the season as favorites to win the stacked American League East (+215) and the American League pennant (+450). New York’s over/under for wins was 90.5 which was the highest in the American League, and tied for the second-highest in MLB — with the New York Mets — behind the reigning back-to-back champion Los Angeles Dodgers (102.5). 

The 2026 season was going according to plan for New York through the first three months of the year. They started off 7-1 and were a season-best 18 games above .500 at 46-28 on June 19. The Yankees owned the best record in the American League and held a three-game lead on the surprising Tampa Bay Rays at the time.

Unfortunately, New York has been ravaged by injuries to crucial players since they appeared to be cruising towards another dominant season in June. Reigning back-to-back AL MVP Aaron Judge went down with a right rib stress fracture on May 31, and has not played since. He’s played in just 59 of 129 games this year. Judge was hitting .248 with 17 homers and 38 RBI before the injury, he was well on his way to another MVP-caliber season. 

Aaron Judge is making incremental steps towards a return. He’s been playing catch, running and doing swinging activity but there is still no definitive timetable for a return. The Yankees are hoping he can return before the end of the regular season which is on Sept. 27.

Sluggers Trent Grisham (ribs), Cody Bellinger (hamstring), and Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) have also suffered significant injuries and missed time this year. Grisham missed about 3 weeks in late June; Stanton has been out since April 24 and Bellinger last played on July 25. Stanton is unlikely to play again in the regular season, while Bellinger will return for today’s game against Toronto. 

The injury bug has also affected New York’s pitching staff as starters Max Fried (elbow bone bruise) and Carlos Rodon (elbow inflammation) missed time. Fried is currently on the 15-day IL. It’s his second stint on the IL this season, he missed more than two months earlier in the year with the same injury. Rodon will make his second start today after missing nearly two months of action. 

New York’s litany of injuries allowed the Tampa Bay Rays to overtake them for first place in the AL East on June 27 and the Yankees have been looking up at Tampa Bay for nearly two months now. The Rays opened a season-best 6.5 game lead on the Yankees on Aug. 15. New York’s 5-1 stretch over the last week has pulled them to within 3 games of Tampa Bay.

The Yankees got a boost at the Aug. 3 trade deadline when they added slugger Luis Garcia Jr. (.283, 23 HR, 76 RBI in 76 gms w/WAS) from Washington and outfielder Heliot Ramos from the San Francisco Giants. They also called up highly-touted minor league prospect George Lombard Jr. from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Aug. 4. Lombard is only 20-years-old and homered in his first MLB game against St. Louis on Aug. 4. 

Luis Garcia Jr. (.254, 3 HR, 6 RBI in 16 gms) and George Lombard Jr. (.273, 2 HR, 5 RBI in 15 gms) have played well since being added to the roster, while Heliot Ramos (.113, 1 RBI in 16 gms) is struggling. 

The young duo of third-year first baseman/designated hitter Ben Rice (.248, 34 HR, 80 RBI in 124 gms) and second-year ace Cam Schlittler (11-6, 2.16 ERA, 193 strikeouts in 27 gms) emerging as superstars this year may have saved the season when you look at all the injuries for the Yankees. Both players were selected as All-Stars for the first time this year.

THE PICK: YANKEES (-129)

I expect New York to get back on track after dropping a 4-3 decision to Toronto yesterday. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games and look primed to make a run at Tampa Bay for the American League East crown. The Yankees will also be getting back slugger Cody Bellinger for today’s game. Take the Yankees on the Run Line!