MLB Picks 8/17 – Orioles @ Devil Rays

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Baltimore Orioles (61-63) conclude a four-game series on the road against the American League East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (74-49) tonight. In a shocking turn of events, the sub-.500 Orioles will look to complete a four-game sweep of the first-place Rays, who entered the series on a nine-game winning streak and owned the best record in MLB. Baltimore eked out a pair of one-run wins — 6-5 on Friday night and 4-3 on Saturday afternoon — in the first two games, before crushing Tampa Bay 10-2 yesterday. 

The American League East combatants have faced off nine times this year and Baltimore leads 6-3. The season series is taking on a somewhat unusual pattern as all three meetings are on the verge of ending in sweeps. Tampa picked up a three-game sweep of the visiting Orioles when the teams first met in May, Baltimore then returned the favor with a three-game sweep of visiting Tampa Bay, and Baltimore is now one win away from finishing off a four-game sweep of Tampa Bay. 

Tonight’s starters are second-year, ace Brandon Young (9-3, 3.33 ERA, 93 strikeouts in 20 starts) for Baltimore and Shane McClanahan (9-6, 3.09 ERA, 91 strikeouts in 20 starts) for Tampa Bay. The two-time All-Star McClanahan was activated from the 15-day IL (back) yesterday and is making his first start since July 30. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Baltimore (+135),   Tampa Bay (-163)

Run Line: Baltimore +1.5 (-163),   Tampa Bay -1.5 (+135)

Run Total: over 8 (-102),   under 8 (-118)

SEASON RECAP/GAME STORYLINES: BALTIMORE

Three years ago (2023), the Baltimore Orioles finished with the MLB’s second-best record at 101-61. They were led by a talented, young core of homegrown players (Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins) who gelled into an elite unit after the team went through several years of futility. The Orioles won 100+ games for the first since 1980 and captured the loaded American League East for the first time since 2014. 

Baltimore’s record dropped to 91-71 in 2024, but they still finished second in the AL East and earned the fourth seed in the playoffs. They made back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 1996 and 1997. Both postseason appearances ended with the Orioles getting swept, but significant progress had been made.

After unexpectedly losing superstar staff ace Corbin Burns (2.92 ERA, 181 strikeouts in 32 starts in 2024) and superstar slugger Anthony Santander (44 HR, 102 RBI in 2024) as free agents following the 2024 season, Baltimore’s record dipped to 75-87 last year — a 16-game decline from the previous year — as the Orioles were unable to replace the immense production of Burns and Santander. 

Prior to this season, Baltimore added a pair of veteran sluggers in five-time All-Star Pete Alonzo (38 HR, 126 RBI in 162 gms with NYM last yr) and power-hitting outfielder Taylor Ward (36 HR, 103 RBI in 157 gms w/LAA last yr). Both players were sensational last season and were expected to provide a significant boost for an Orioles offense that went from 4th in runs scored in 2024 (786) to 24th (677) last year.

Despite getting an excellent season from Pete Alonzo (.266, 27 HR, 80 RBI, 23 doubles in 124 gms), the Baltimore Orioles spent this entire season floundering below .500. They were a season-worst 9 games under .500 (42-51) on July 8. Injuries to key players (Adley Rutschman, Zach Eflin, Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, Tyler O’Neil) played a huge role in Baltimore’s underwhelming season.

Baltimore became sellers at the August 3 trade deadline and shipped off star hitters Taylor Ward (to SEA) and Adley Rutschman (to BOS), along with starting pitcher Dean Kremer (to MIN) and relief pitcher Tyler Wells (to TB). All four players were thought to be important cogs for a Baltimore turnaround this season, but they ended up being sent to contenders.

Jettisoning Adley Rutschman is particularly crushing because Baltimore selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft and he was on track to becoming a franchise cornerstone after making the All-Star team in three of his first five MLB seasons (2023, 2024 and 2026).

The Orioles did get back 5 prospects as part of the trade package for Adley Rutschman. The headliner is starting pitcher Anthony Eyanson, who is a top-100 prospect (ranked No. 49 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list) and was Boston’s No. 2 ranked minor league prospect. 

Baltimore’s management appeared to be waiving the white flag on the 2026 season but the somewhat undermanned roster may not be ready to quit on this season. After picking up 3 straight wins at division-leading Tampa Bay, Baltimore is now in sole possession of the third and final Wild Card spot, despite possessing a losing record (61-63). With a win tonight, the Orioles can pull to within a game of .500 for the first time since April 30 when they were 15-16. 

The Orioles may be regretting their decision to ship off their key contributors now that a postseason bid is well within their grasp in a weak American League — outside of Tampa Bay and the New York Yankees. 

SEASON RECAP/GAME STORYLINES: TAMPA BAY

Much like today’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays also suffered a decline after a registering a terrific season in 2023. Tampa Bay finished 99-63 in 2023, which was two games behind Baltimore. A subpar pitching staff — mainly due to ace Shane McClanahan missing 2 full seasons — and a middle-of-the-pack batting lineup dropped them to 80-82 in 2024 and 77-85 last year.

After posting back-to-back losing seasons, Tampa Bay is in the midst of a tremendous bounce back campaign in 2026. They enter tonight’s contest with the second-best record in MLB at 74-49 and lead the perennial powerhouse New York Yankees by 5.5 games in the AL East. The Rays have owned the top record in the American League since late June after surging ahead of the injury-depleted Yankees.

A 22-4 stretch from April 22 to May 22 took the Rays from 12-11 to 34-15, and they’ve remained amongst the MLB’s elite ever since for nearly three months. If Tampa Bay can hold off the Yankees, they’ll win the American League East for the first time since 2021. The 2021 season was also the last time the Rays finished with the best record in the American League. 

The extraordinary play of superstar third baseman Junior Caminero is a big reason for Tampa Bay’s resurgence in 2026. The 23-year-old, phenom is batting .274 with 35 homers, 79 RBI, 66 walks and 18 doubles across 123 games in his second full MLB season. His 35 homers ranks third in MLB. Caminero was voted in as a starter in this year’s All-Star game. It was his second straight appearance in the midsummer classic. 

Junior Caminero entered MLB as a highly-touted prospect towards the end of the 2023 season at just 20-years-old. His highly-anticipated rookie season in 2024 was cut short due to injuries, but he exploded onto the scene last year in his first full MLB season. Caminero finished with 45 homers and 110 RBI in 2025. His 45 homers was the second-most in franchise history behind Carlos Pena’s 46 in 2007. 

Tampa Bay made a pair of significant additions at the trade deadline to bolster their roster. They acquired two-time All-Star starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (5-9, 4.99 ERA, 113 K’s in 22 starts w/NYM) from the Mets and power-hitting catcher Liam Hicks (.282, 14 HR, 62 RBI in 101 gms w/MIA) from the Marlins. 

After struggling in his first year with the Mets this season prior to the trade, the 30-year-old Freddy Peralta was expected to regain his 2025 All-Star form — where his 18 wins led MLB — with Tampa Bay. But he has struggled with the Rays going 0-1 with a 7.53 ERA in 3 starts. Peralta took the loss in yesterday’s 10-2 defeat against Baltimore. He was pulled after 4.2 innings and 76 pitches. Peralta’s short outing ended with him giving up 2 earned runs and striking out 2 batters against Baltimore. 

Liam Hicks has been terrific with Tampa Bay, he’s batting .300 with 2 homers, 9 RBI, 3 doubles and 8 walks across 10 games. Hicks is 27-years-old and is signed through the 2030 season. He should be a significant contributor for the Rays for the foreseeable future.  

Shane McClanahan returns from the 15-day IL (back) to take the mound for Tampa Bay tonight. The 27-year-old, southpaw carries a 9-3 record with a 3.09 ERA and 91:35 K:BB across 20 starts. McClanahan was on a trajectory to becoming one of the MLB’s top pitchers after being selected as an All-Star in 2 of his first 3 MLB seasons in 2022 and 2023. He was 11-2 with 121 strikeouts through 21 starts in 2023 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2023 which caused him to miss the entire 2024 season.

And just when Shane McClanahan was set to return for the 2025 season, a nerve injury to his left triceps during a March 2025 spring training game sidelined him for all of 2025. It’s no coincidence that McClanahan being out for the last 2 full seasons resulted in back-to-back losing campaigns for the Rays. Tampa Bay finished 99-63 the last time McClanahan was available to pitch in 2023, and they are on pace to post a similar record in 2026 now that he’s back. 

THE PICK: RAYS (-158)

I picked Tampa Bay in my last preview and lost! But I’m not deterred by that, Tampa is too good to suffer a four-game sweep at home against a losing team like Baltimore. Take the Rays on the Run Line tonight!