MLB Picks 7/28 – Mariners @ Dodgers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Seattle Mariners (52-55) open a three-game set on the road against the defending back-to-back World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers (67-39) tonight at Dodger Stadium. This will be the only regular season meeting of the year between the clubs. Los Angeles has dominated Seattle of late winning 12 straight head-to-head matchups dating back to April 2021. 

Seattle is coming off a 7-3 loss at Texas yesterday. Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby surrendered four homers and gave up seven earned runs in the loss. Randy Arozarena homered for Seattle in defeat. The Mariners dropped three of four at division-leading Texas, and now trail the Rangers by 3.5 games in the American League West. Seattle has lost five of their last six.  

Los Angeles had the day off yesterday and return home for the first time after the All-Star break. The Dodgers began the second half of the season with a 9-game, East Coast road trip where they played the Yankees, Phillies and Mets. The Dodgers went 6-3 on their long road trip, winning 2 of 3 in each series. Los Angeles will be playing at home for the first time since July 12.

Tonight’s starters are Luis Castillo (3-9, 4.85 ERA, 84 strikeouts in 16 starts and 3 relief appearances) for Seattle and All-Star Justin Wrobleski (11-2, 2.62 ERA, 80 strikeouts in 16 starts and 1 relief appearance) for Los Angeles.  

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Seattle (+157),   Los Angeles (-192)

Run Line: Seattle +1.5 (-137),   Los Angeles -1.5 (+114)

Run Total: over 9.5 (-105),   under 9.5 (-115)

GAME STORYLINES: SEATTLE

In 2022, the Seattle Mariners finished 90-72 and ended a 21-year playoff drought by making the playoffs for the first time since 2001. They narrowly missed out on the playoffs over the next 2 seasons in 2023 and 2024, but rebounded with a 90-72 mark last year and won the American League West division for the first time since 2001.

Seattle’s return to the postseason last year was ignited by one of the MLB’s top offenses that finished 3rd in homers with 238. The catalyst for Seattle’s supreme offense was the historic season from catcher Cal Raleigh. The “Big Dumper” smashed an astonishing 60 home runs last year. Raleigh became the first catcher in MLB history to hit 60 homers in a season, he also broke Seattle’s single-season record for homers in a season.

The 2025 Mariners advanced to the American League Championship Series (ALCS) for the first time since 2001, but fell to the Toronto Blue Jays in 7 games. Seattle won the first two games in Toronto, and led 3-2 but were unable to win the series. Despite the bitter defeat against Toronto in the ALCS, Seattle had just completed arguably its best season in franchise history. Seattle made its fourth appearance in the ALCS last year, but never advanced to a Game 7 in its previous three appearances in 1995, 2000 and 2001. 

Seattle entered the 2026 season with huge expectations after last season’s success. The Mariners’ over/under for wins was 89.5, which was second in the AL behind the New York Yankees. But the 2026 campaign has been a huge disappointment for Seattle as they enter tonight’s game three games under .500 at 52-55. Luckily for the Mariners, they reside in the weakest division in MLB where the first-place Texas Rangers are just 54-52. Seattle still has a good shot to win the division despite their losing record. 

Offensive woes are the biggest reason for Seattle’s struggles in 2026. After boasting one of the top offenses in MLB over the past several seasons, the Mariners now rank amongst the bottom 5 teams in runs scored, batting average, total bases and slugging percentage.  

A slow start for superstar catcher Cal Raleigh, along with a right oblique injury that kept him out for a little over a month from May 13 through June 16 resulted in a season-long slump for the 29-year-old slugger. Raleigh is batting .195 with 10 homers and 35 RBI in 74 games this year. That’s a far cry from the historic 60 homers he hit last year, and the 34 he hit in 2024. Raleigh’s lack of power in the middle of the lineup may have caused a ripple for the offense. 

Seattle’s pitching staff has been the saving grace for the team this year. The foursome of Logan Gilbert (8-6, 3.44 ERA, 133 strikeouts in 21 starts), George Kirby (8-9, 3.98 ERA, 107 strikeouts in 20 starts), Bryan Woo (7-7, 4.37 ERA, 114 strikeouts in 20 starts) and Emerson Hancock (6-4, 3.16 ERA, 97 strikeouts in 19 starts) comprise an excellent unit which ranks 4th in WHIP (1.18) and 6th in ERA (3.68).

Seattle is the only team in the AL West with a positive run-differential (+8) and that is due to the fact that they boast an excellent starting pitching staff. If the offense can get going, they can be as good as any team in the American League and make another deep postseason run. 

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

In December 2023, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed two-way, superstar Shohei Ohtani to a then-record 10-year, $700 million contract. Ohtani amassed a stellar six-year career with the Los Angeles Angels from 2018-2023 where he captured 2 AL MVPs in 2021 and 2023, while being a full-time starting pitcher. He also connected on 40+ homers in both of those seasons.

The addition of Shohei Ohtani led to back-to-back World Series titles in 2024 and 2025. Ohtani captured back-to-back National League MVP awards over those two seasons as well. In his first season with the Dodgers, Ohtani became the first player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases in a season — he smashed 54 homers and stole 59 bases in 159 games. Ohtani crushed 55 homers last season.

The Dodgers became the first team to repeat as World Series champs since the New York Yankees won three in a row from 1998-2000. They’ll look to become the third team in MLB history to win three straight World Series crowns, they’d join the Oakland A’s (1972-1974) and the Yankees who did it three times (1936-1939, 1949-1953, 1998-2000).

Taking home back-to-back World Series crowns did not stop the Dodgers from making a big splash in the offseason. Los Angeles inked slugger Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million deal in January. The 29-year-old, 4-time All-Star Tucker established himself as one of the premier power hitters in MLB over the previous 5 seasons with the Astros and Cubs. Adding Tucker to an already potent lineup gives the Dodgers an embarrassment of riches. 

Los Angeles entered the season as the favorites to win the National League West (-600), the National League Pennant (+150) and the World Series (+190), in addition to having the highest over/under for wins at 102.5. And they’ve exceeded those expectations as they enter tonight’s game with the MLB’s best record at 67-39 and lead the NL West by a whopping 12.5 games over the second-place Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers will win the NL West division for the 13th time in the last 14 seasons. 

The Dodgers are arguably the most balanced team in MLB as their offense ranks 1st in run-differential (+155), on-base percentage (.340) and batting average (.260), and second in slugging percentage (431). On the pitching side, the Dodgers rank 1st in WHIP (1.14) , OBA (.215) and Quality Starts (57) and 4th in ERA (3.58).

Los Angeles’s star-studded offense is led by the All-Star trio of designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (.282, 22 HR, 61 RBI, 19 doubles in 97 gms), third-year outfielder Andy Pages (.263, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 22 doubles, 10 steals in 105 gms) and veteran third baseman Max Muncy (.256, 20 HR, 48 RBI, 16 doubles in 97 gms). Pages and Muncy are not household names like others in the lineup, but their contributions this season have been invaluable. 

On the mound, the All-Star duo of Justin Wrobleski (11-2, 2.62 ERA, 80 strikeouts in 16 starts and 1 relief appearances) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (11-6, 2.72 ERA, 117 strikeouts in 19 starts) have been excellent for the Dodgers. Both players are in their third year with the team and were named All-Stars this year. They’ve anchored a starting staff that was projected to be mediocre due to prolonged injuries suffered by starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow.

The 27-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto agreed to a 12-year, $325 million deal — the largest contract ever given to an MLB pitcher — in December 2023. He’s been outstanding in his three seasons with the Dodgers where he’s been selected as an All-Star for the last 2 years and was named the MVP of the World Series last year after delivering an impeccable performance where he went 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA in 2 starts and 2.2 innings in Game 7. 

The 26-year-old Justin Wrobleski gets the start tonight for the Dodgers. The lefty was converted to a starter early in the season after Blake Snell went on the injured list, and he’s emerged as the staff ace. Wrobleski tossed his 5th straight quality start in his previous outing at Philadelphia on July 21 where the Dodgers won 2-1. He’s compiled 12 quality starts this year.

THE PICK: DODGERS (-197)

Seattle pitcher Luis Castillo has lost his 3 starts, and the Mariners are 1-6 in his last 7 starts. I don’t expect things to get any easier for Castillo when he faces a loaded Los Angeles lineup tonight. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line!