MLB Picks 7/23 – Padres @ Braves

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The San Diego Padres (50-52) conclude a four-game series on the road against the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves (59-42) today at Truist Park. The Braves held on for a 7-6 victory last night and won two of the first three in the series. This afternoon’s contest will be the final head-to-head regular season matchup between the Padres and Braves. The Padres lead the season series 4-2; they swept the Braves in a three-game set at home in June. Atlanta’s two wins in the series were by a run — they won the series-opener 3-2. 

Today’s starters are Griffin Canning (1-8, 6.77 ERA, 59 strikeouts in 11 starts and 3 relief appearances) for San Diego and veteran All-Star Chris Sale (10-6, 2.06 ERA, 123 strikeouts in 18 starts) for Atlanta. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: San Diego (+201),   Atlanta (-249)

Run Line: San Diego +1.5 (+102),   Atlanta -1.5 (-123)

Run Total: over 8 (-109),   under 8 (-110)

GAME STORYLINES: SAN DIEGO

In February 2019, the San Diego Padres surprised the baseball world when they inked then-26-year-old superstar slugger Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300 million free agent deal. Machado established himself as one of the premier power hitters in MLB with the Baltimore Orioles after hitting at least 33 homers in each of the previous three seasons (2015-2017) where he played over 100 games. Machado hit 24 homers across 96 games in his last year with Baltimore in 2018.

The signing of Machado signaled a new direction for a Padres franchise that had missed the postseason for the previous 12 seasons (2007-2018) prior to his arrival. San Diego rarely spent big money on free agents before landing Machado. The addition of Machado, along with their new big-spending philosophy, resulted in a tremendous amount of success for the once downtrodden franchise.

Over the last seven seasons (2019-2025), San Diego registered 4 postseason appearances and posted back-to-back seasons with at least 90 wins. To put things into perspective, San Diego made just 4 postseason appearances over the previous 35 seasons (1985-2019) prior to their recent stretch of success. The Padres have also become formidable challengers to the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers, who are the reigning back-to-back World Series champions and won 12 of the last 13 NL West division crowns.

San Diego entered the 2026 season with huge expectations after finishing with 90+ wins in each of the previous two seasons. San Diego’s over/under win total prior to the year was 85.5 and they had the second-best odds to win the National League West at (+800). Unfortunately, the 2026 season has been a big disappointment for the Padres so far. They enter tonight’s game under .500 at 50-52 and occupy third place in the National League West. The Padres are 14.5 games behind the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers and 3 games behind the second-place Arizona Diamondbacks.

A big reason for San Diego’s struggles this year is their underperforming offense. The Padres appeared to have a star-studded lineup headlined by the aforementioned Manny Machado and star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. But the offense has failed to live up to expectations, while the pitching staff is average at best. 

Despite the underwhelming season as a team, Manny Machado is amassing another sensational season at the plate. The 34-year-old slugger is batting .202 with 22 homers, 59 RBI and 16 doubles across 99 games. He leads the Padres in homers and RBI. Machado is on pace to lead the Padres in homers and RBI for the third straight season. He’s also led the team in homers and RBI in three of the last four seasons. 

Manny Machado has surpassed the 20-homer mark for the 11th consecutive non-interrupted season. He’s totaled 391 career home runs in his 15 MLB seasons. 

GAME STORYLINES: ATLANTA

After winning the National League East division for six straight seasons from 2018-2023, the Atlanta Braves regressed over the last 2 seasons. They went from an MLB-leading 104 wins in 2023 to 88 in 2024, and sunk to 76-86 last season. Atlanta’s 76 wins was their fewest since the 2017 season when they went 72-90. The Braves also missed the postseason for the first time since that 2017 season. 

Constant injuries to superstars Ronald Acuna Jr. (RF) and Spencer Strider (SP) over the past two seasons were big factors in Atlanta’s regression. The last time both players were healthy and played a full season was 2023 when Atlanta finished with the MLB’s best record at 104-58. The 2024 season saw both players go down with season-ending injuries early. Strider’s season ended in early April after a damaged UCL in his right elbow required Tommy John surgery. Acuna was then lost for the season after tearing his ACL in late May

The then-26-year-old Ronald Acuna Jr. (.337, 41 HR, 106 RBI, MLB-leading 73 steals, 35 doubles in 159 gms) and then-25-year-old Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86 ERA, MLB-leading 281 strikeouts in 32 starts) were extraordinary for the MLB-leading Braves in 2023, but they’ve been constant occupants on the injured-list for three straight seasons now. Both players are currently on the injured list. Acuna injured his hamstring on June 9, and has not played since; he’s expected to return soon. Strider has not played since June 12 when he injured his elbow. The Braves are hopeful Strider can return in late-August but they are not optimistic. 

The lingering injuries for Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider has not deterred Atlanta this year like it did in 2024 and 2025. Atlanta got off to a hot start in 2026 and they’ve occupied first place in the NL East for virtually the entire season up to this point. An improved pitching staff is a big reason for Atlanta’s resurgence in 2026. The Braves currently hold a 4-game lead over the reigning back-to-back NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies, and will likely be in a heated battle to hold them off for the rest of the season. 

Atlanta’s improved pitching staff is anchored by ageless star Chris Sale. The 37-year-old southpaw has found the fountain of youth since joining the Braves in 2024. He claimed the 2024 National League Cy Young award in his debut season with Atlanta when he went 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 225:39 K:BB across 29 starts. Sale enters tonight’s game with a 10-6 record, a 2.06 ERA and 123:25 K:BB across 18 starts. Sale was named an All-Star this season for the 10th time in his career.  

At the plate, Atlanta possesses one of the better lineups in MLB. The Braves rank 6th in homers (132) and runs scored (502) and their plus-105 run differential ranks 3rd. The foursome of first baseman Matt Olson (.270, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 25 doubles in 101 gms), outfielder Michael Harris II (.296, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 19 doubles in 95 gms), second-year catcher Drake Baldwin (.275, 18 HR, 54 RBI, 19 doubles in 78 gms) and second baseman Ozzie Albies (.262, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 21 doubles in 101 gms) are the standouts in a deep lineup. 

Reigning Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin and Ozzie Albies were voted in as All-Star game starters this year for the first time in their careers, while Matt Olson was chosen as a reserve. Harris needs only 3 home runs to surpass his career-high total of 20 which he set last year. With Ronald Acuna Jr. nearing a return — he’s now playing rehab games with Triple-A Gwinnett — the Braves will get a huge boost once he’s back and healthy. 

THE PICK: BRAVES (Run Line)

This one is hard to forecast because Atlanta and San Diego are playing an early afternoon game at noon eastern after last night’s game ended at around 10PM eastern. Both teams will also be traveling at the conclusion of this afternoon’s game to play in different locations tomorrow night, so you can’t be sure of how motivated the players will be. I’ve got to go with the dominant pitcher (Chris Sale) in this one. Take the Braves on the Run Line!