NBA Picks 4/1 – Spurs @ Warriors

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The red-hot San Antonio Spurs (57-18, 2nd in the West) visit the injury-riddled Golden State Warriors (36-39, 10th in the West) tonight at Chase Center on ESPN. This is the fourth and final regular season meeting between the teams. Golden State has won two of three against San Antonio this year, winning a pair of close games in San Antonio on Nov. 12 (125-120) and Nov. 14 (109-108). San Antonio knocked off Golden State 126-113 on Feb. 11.

The Spurs are looking to win their fourth straight game at Golden State. The Spurs and Warriors could square off in the first round of the playoffs in a 1-8 or 2-7 matchup if Golden State can make it out of the play-in round of the postseason. San Antonio will be the No. 1 or No. 2 in the playoffs.

San Antonio is a 13-point favorite and the total is 225.5.

San Antonio defeated the visiting Chicago Bulls 129-114 on Monday night. The heavily-favored Spurs broke open the game in the second quarter, outscoring the Bulls 35-19 to take a 64-47 lead at halftime and coasted to victory. The surging Spurs have won nine in a row.

Superstar center Victor Wembanyama finished with a season-high 41 points (17-27 FG, 4-4 FT, 3-6 3Pt), and added 16 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals across 31 minutes for San Antonio. Wembanayma recorded a double-double of 10 points and 10 rebounds in his first eight minutes and 31 seconds on the court. It was the third-fastest double-double in the play-by-play era (1996-97).

Second-year star Stephon Castle stuffed the stat sheet with 21 points (6-12 FG, 6-10 FT, 3-6 3Pt), 10 assists, 8 rebounds and a steal across 35 minutes, while Keldon Johnson added 15 points (5-11 FG, 3-4 FT, 2-5 3Pt) and a steal in 25 minutes off the bench. The Spurs had six players score in double figures.

Golden State suffered a 116-93 shellacking at Denver on NBC’s Sunday Night Basketball three days ago. Golden State actually led by 13 (49-36) with about 3 minutes left in the second quarter, and held a 53-46 lead at halftime. But Denver demolished Golden State in the second half, outscoring them 70-40 en route to the blowout win.

Kristaps Porzingis and Brandin Podziemski each scored team-highs of 23 points for Golden State in the loss. Gary Payton II added 16 points and 5 rebounds off the bench. Sunday’s loss at Denver snapped Golden State’s three-game winning streak. Tonight’s contest begins a 5-game homestand for the Warriors.

Several NBA teams spent the 2022-23 season tanking in order to obtain the No. 1 overall pick and select 7-foot-4 center Victor Wembanyama. The 19-year-old, phenom was one of the most ballyhooed draft prospects in NBA history. San Antonio ended up winning the draft lottery and selecting Wembanyama No. 1 overall in the 2023 NBA draft. It was believed that Wembanyama would dominate as a rookie and bring instant success to San Antonio.

Unfortunately, the first two years of Victor Wembanyama’s tenure with the Spurs only produced individual success for the All-World center, but minimal team success. Wembanyama was phenomenal as a rookie (21.4 ppg, 10.6 rebs, 3.6 blks, 1.2 stls in 71 gms) and took home the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year award, but the Spurs finished with a dismal 22-60 record — the exact same record they had in 2022-23 when they were losing on purpose to land Wembanyama.

Victor Wembanyama was even better in year two (24.3 ppg, 11.1 rebs, 3.8 blks) and was named an All-Star, but he was limited to just 46 games after deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder ended his season in February. San Antonio did improve their win total by 12 games to finish 34-48, but still missed the playoffs.

During the 2024-25 season, San Antonio made two significant additions in Stephon Castle (draft) and De’Aaron Fox (trade) to build around Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs selected Castle fourth overall (UConn) in the 2024 NBA draft and he captured the 2024-25 Rookie of the Year Award. San Antonio acquired Fox from the Sacramento Kings on Feb. 2, 2025.

The 28-year-old Fox established himself as one of the elite point guards in the NBA during his time with the Kings.

The 2025-26 season has seen everything come together for the Spurs as they’ve been one of the best teams in the NBA for the entire season. San Antonio enters tonight’s game with the NBA’s second-best record at 57-18 — they are 2.5 games behind NBA-leading Oklahoma City. They’ve won nine in a row and are an astonishing 25-2 since Feb. 1. San Antonio’s 57 wins is their most since 2016-17 when they finished 61-21.

The continued brilliance of Victor Wembanyama in year three has been the catalyst for San Antonio’s enormous success this season. The 22-year-old, two-time All-Star is averaging career-highs of 24.5 points and 11.4 rebounds, along with 3.1 blocks, 1.1 steals and 1.9 threes on 50.4 percent shooting from the floor across 60 games. Wembanyama has now surged to second (+225) in the NBA MVP betting odds projections behind reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-210)

On February 7, 2025, the Golden State acquired veteran superstar Jimmy Butler III from the Miami Heat in a blockbuster trade. The Warriors added Butler as a last-ditch effort to salvage a disappointing season — they were 25-26 at the time of the trade — and pair superstar Steph Curry with a bona fide star. The addition of Butler III paid off as Golden State went 23-8 with him and finished the regular season at 48-34.

Golden State captured the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference and went on to defeat the No. 2 seed Houston Rockets 4-3 in the first round of the playoffs. After knocking off the second-seeded Rockets and soundly defeating the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves on the road in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals, it looked as if Golden State was primed to make a deep postseason run behind the veteran, postseason-tested duo of Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III.

Unfortunately, Steph Curry suffered a left hamstring strain in Golden State’s Game 1 victory at Minnesota in the 2025 West Semis that kept him out for the rest of the series. The Warriors went on to lose 4 straight games to Minnesota and meekly bowed out of the playoffs due to Curry’s absence.

The injury bug has continued to doom Golden State for the overwhelming majority of the 2025-26 season as Jimmy Butler III and Steph Curry have missed an exorbitant amount of games. Butler III (20 ppg, 5.6 rebs, 4.9 asts, 1.4 stls, 51.9% from 2) will end up playing in just 38 games after tearing the ACL in his right knee on Jan. 19. Curry experienced right knee soreness in a 131-124 loss to Detroit on Jan. 30, and has not played since. He participated in a full practice yesterday and is close to returning. Curry hopes to return for Sunday’s (4/5) against the Houston Rockets.

Prior to the injury, the ageless superstar Steph Curry was amassing another stellar season in year 17. The 37-year-old, 12-time All-Star was averaging 27.2 points, 4.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 4.4 threes per game on 46.8 percent shooting from the floor and 39.1 percent shooting from long distance across 39 games.

Golden State acquired talented, but oft-injured big man Kristaps Porzingis from Atlanta at the trade deadline on Feb. 5. The 30-year-old, former All-Star Porzingis has dealt with a bevy of injuries throughout his 11-year NBA career but has played well with a depleted Golden State squad. He’s averaging 17.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 2 blocks per game in 11 games with the Warriors. Porzingis has surpassed the 20-point mark in 5 of his 11 games with the Warriors.

Kristaps Porzingis will miss tonight’s game due to injury management. He has played in four straight games and will get the night off.

With Golden State locked into the Play-In round of the postseason and no Jimmy Butler III, another playoff run is highly unlikely — due to Oklahoma City or San Antonio being the No. 2 seed this year instead of an inexperienced Houston squad in Round 1 — even if Steph Curry and Kristaps Porzingis can play at an elite level together. It will be interesting to see how the veteran trio of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler III and Kristaps Porzingis can do next season if they all remain relatively healthy.

San Antonio is arguably the hottest team in the NBA, while Golden State is having a hard time finding enough healthy bodies to take the floor every night. I expect another easy win for the Spurs tonight in San Francisco. Lay the Big Number and take the Spurs!