NFL Picks 11/8 – Bucs @ Bears

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The NFL’s top two rushing teams and former long-time, NFC Central division rivals (1977-2001) face off tonight as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) visit the Chicago Bears (6-2) at Soldier Field on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. The Bucs and Bears are meeting for the first time since September 2023 when the Bucs defeated the Bears 27-17 at home.

Tampa Bay averages a league-best 168.6 rushing yards per game, while Chicago is second at 150.8 rushing yards per game. 

The last six matchups between Tampa Bay and Chicago were split evenly at three, with the home team winning each game. The last time a road team won in this series (9 meetings) was 2008 when Chicago edged Tampa Bay 27-24 in overtime. Tampa Bay and Chicago played a game in London during the 2011 season. 

The starting quarterbacks in tonight’s contest were former Heisman Trophy-winning, No. 1 overall picks. Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield (1st overall-2018) opposes Chicago’s Caleb Williams (1st overall-2024). Both quarterbacks played for current USC head coach Lincoln Riley in college. 

Chicago is a 6-point favorite and the total is 47.5. 

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID LAST WEEK

Tampa Bay shut out the Atlanta Falcons (3-5), 16-0, at home last Sunday on a rainy afternoon in Tampa, which caused wet and sloppy conditions for the entire game. Tampa Bay won the game despite quarterback Baker Mayfield failing to complete a single pass. Mayfield finished 0 for 3 from the field. The Buccaneers became the first team to finish with zero completions in a game since the Buffalo Bills on Sept. 29, 1974. 

A pair of phenomenal performances from Tampa Bay’s running game and defense more than made up for its non-existent passing game, which is what is needed in games are played in sloppy conditions. Tampa rushed for a team-record 324 yards, while the defense picked off Atlanta starting quarterback Micheal Penix Jr. four times, and limited him to only 8 completions for the entire game.

Bucky Irving carried the ball 27 times for a career-high 170 yards and a touchdown, while backup Kenny Gainwell added a season-best 140 yards on 25 carries for Tampa Bay. Linebacker Alex Anzalone collected two of Tampa Bay’s four interceptions, and finished with 6 tackles. 

Chicago picked up an emphatic 34-17 victory against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (4-4) on the road last week on Monday Night Football. The Bears displayed an excellent all-around performance as the passing game, running game and defense equally contributed to the win. The Bears handed Seattle its fourth loss of the season, which is one more than they had all of last year when they won the Super Bowl. 

Newly-acquired, star defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons was tremendous in his debut with the Bears, registering 6 tackles and a sack. Caleb Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 with a touchdown, while running back D’Andre Swift rushed 27 times for 69 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win. The Bears have won three in a row. 

GAME STORYLINES: TAMPA BAY

After winning four straight NFC South division crowns from 2021-2024, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers record dipped to 8-9 last year and they failed to win the division. The Buccaneers also missed the playoffs for the first time since 2019. A mid-season swoon that included a stretch where they lost 7 of 8 games derailed their season. Tampa Bay was cruising towards a fifth straight division title last year when they got off to a 5-1 start before cratering. 

Season-long injuries for the talented skill position trio of wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, along with running back Bucky Irving played a huge role in Tampa Bay’s slight regression last season. 

During the offseason, Tampa Bay lost two franchise stalwarts in six-time, Pro-Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans and three-time, All-Pro linebacker Lavonte David. The 33-year-old Evans signed with the San Francisco 49ers as a free agent, while the 35-year-old David retired after 14 seasons in the NFL. Evans (drafted in 2014) and David (drafted in 2012) were drafted to and spent their entire careers with Tampa Bay.

With starting quarterback Baker Mayfield armed with a new three-year, $165 million extension that kicks in next season, along with a talented cast of young skill position players (Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka) and a strong defense returning, Tampa Bay entered the season as the favorites (+164) to win the NFC South division. 

But in an unexpected turn of events, Tampa Bay got off to a disastrous 0-4 start this season. Injuries and an inability to win close games were huge reasons for the terrible start. Those injuries included Baker Mayfield suffering a dislocated thumb towards the end of Tampa Bay’s 23-16 Week 3 loss against Minnesota that sidelined him for three weeks. Meanwhile, second-year, star wideout Emeka Egbuka has dealt with an assortment of nagging injuries (foot, concussion) that have hampered him for much of the year. Egbuka has missed Tampa Bay’s last 2 games and is questionable for Sunday’s game at Chicago.

The stellar play of running back Bucky Irving, along with a stout defense and a weak division has allowed Tampa Bay to remain the frontrunner to win the NFC South division despite getting off to an 0-4 start and possessing a 3-5 record. They are currently a half game behind the first-place Carolina Panthers (3-4) in the division. Tampa Bay’s last 2 wins came in dominant fashion against division opponents Carolina (43-13) on the road and Atlanta (16-0) at home last week, which may indicate they are indeed the best team in the NFC South. 

The aforementioned Bucky Irving is off to a sensational start in 2026. The 24-year-old, third-year back has rushed for 728 yards (3rd in the NFL), totaled 5 touchdowns and is averaging 5 yards per carry through 8 games. Irving has surpassed the 100-yard mark in three of his last four contests. After a shoulder injury caused him to miss 7 games last year, Irving is back to resembling his excellent rookie form when he rushed for 1,122 yards and totaled 8 touchdowns in 17 games. 

Tampa Bay’s defense has been amongst the best in the NFL this season. They rank 3rd in total defense, 5th in points allowed per game (18.9) and 1st in interceptions (12). The defense boasts a talented mix of consistent veterans and emerging newcomers.

Rookie linebackers Josiah Trotter (team-high 68 tackles, 1 sack, 1 Pick-Six) and David Walker (team-high 4 sacks), free agent linebacker Alex Anzalone (3 INT, 42 tackles) and the mainstay star duo of safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and defensive tackle Vita Vea anchor Tampa’s terrific defense. The emergence of rookies Trotter and Walker is particularly encouraging for the Bucs considering neither were projected to be instant impact players. Trotter was a second-round pick out of Missouri, while Walker was drafted in the fourth-round last season, but missed his entire rookie campaign a year ago due to injury. 

GAME STORYLINES: CHICAGO

Last season, the Chicago Bears were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL when they finished 11-6, won the ultra-competitive NFC North division and secured the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Chicago was coming off three straight last place finishes in NFC North and six consecutive non-winning seasons prior to last season. The Bears won the division and made the playoffs for the first time since 2018.

The catalysts for last season’s turnaround was the hiring of first-time head coach Ben Johnson and the progression of second-year quarterback Caleb Williams. Johnson spent the previous 3 seasons as the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions from 2022-2024 before arriving in Chicago. Williams was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft and considered a generational talent. Williams improved his TD:INT from 20:6 as a rookie to 27:7 last year, and led the NFL with six fourth-quarter comeback wins last year, which was pivotal in Chicago’s six-game improvement. 

Caleb Williams has elevated his play for a third straight season, and the Bears are on pace to improve their record for a third straight year. On the season, Williams has passed for 1,267 yards with 6 touchdowns to 1 interception on 70.9 percent completions across 5 starts. Williams went down with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain during Chicago’s 9-3 Week 2 loss against Minnesota that sidelined him for 3 weeks.

Chicago went 2-1 without Caleb Williams, but the offense has looked unstoppable since his return. They’ve scored 30 or more points in all three games with Williams back under center. 

Chicago’s offense features a plethora of weapons in the running back duo of D’Andre Swift (545 rush yards, 162 rec yards, 10 TDs in 8 gms) and Kyle Monangai (324 rush yds, 3 TDs in 4 gms), the wideout duo of emerging, second-year star Luther Burden III (547 rec yds, 3 TDs in 8 gms) and Rome Odunze (468 rec yds in 8 gms), and tight end Colston Loveland (309 rec yds, 3 TDs in 8 gms). All five players are capable of producing huge games on a weekly basis, which makes Chicago’s offense hard to defend.  

With Caleb Williams playing at an elite level since returning from injury on Oct. 18, along with a Bears defense that ranks among the top 10 in total defense, rush defense and sacks, the Chicago Bears decided to make a significant trade on Oct. 29 when they acquired All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons from the Tennessee Titans. The Bears paid a steep price for Simmons, giving up two first-round picks (2027, 2028) and a 2027 fourth-round pick for him. But, Simmons could be the final piece to a Super Bowl for Chicago, which would make the deal a bargain.

Jeffery Simmons established himself as one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL since being drafted by the Tennessee Titans in the first-round (19th overall) of the 2019 NFL draft. He’s been named an All-Pro 3x, and selected to the Pro Bowl 4x over his 7 full seasons (2019-2025) with the Titans. Simmons wasted no time acclimating himself with the Bears, as he finished with 6 tackles and a sack in his debut at Seattle last week.

With Caleb Williams playing at an MVP level for an explosive offense and All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons joining an already strong defense, it looks like the Bears may be the most complete team in the NFL. We’ll see whether Chicago will fulfill its potential over the next 9 games by advancing to or winning the Super Bowl. 

THE PICK: BEARS (-6)

Chicago is clicking on all cylinders since Caleb Williams returned from a hamstring injury on Oct. 18. The addition of All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons likely vaults them into Super Bowl contention. I expect them to keep rolling tonight against Tampa Bay at home. Lay the Points…Bears 35, Buccaneers 20